Producers have delivered around 30% of their 2018 pea crop according to reports. This number is ahead of last year’s 29%, but still behind the 5-year average of 34% at the same time. Chinese exports have totaled around 275,000 tonnes for the month of October. Total for the year so far is around 1.66 million tonnes. If the China/USA trade deal comes together on soybeans, you could see the price of yellow peas decrease, but we will have to wait to find out. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.75-7.00/bu FOB farm, with an indicated Dec/Jan delivery timeline. Green pea markets continue to show strength this week, and bids have shot up to $10.00 FOB farm. Maple pea markets also remain perked up at $15/bu picked up with delivery pushed to a Feb-March time frame. We have a very good supply of common and certified pea seed as well. Call your merchant for details.
Flax bids are still holding strong with #1 quality trading at $13.30/bu delivered to plant and milling quality trading at $13.25/bu picked up. We are seeing support being held due to our weaker Canadian dollar. However, the demand is also being supported by the smaller flax inventories in China. Flax is showing some potential with this Chinese demand, but the Black Sea region is keeping prices at bay for the moment. According to Stat reports, Russia and Kazakhstan had harvest delays and their export volumes are now getting back on track. Looking to yellow flax, we have bids at $13-14/bu picked up with the bids getting stronger as you head south east.
Soybeans have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride since the U.S. – China trade talks wrapped up on Sunday. Moral of the story, no new tariffs for ninety days. At this point nothing has been completely resolved, therefore markets will remain rocky until we see how each country comes to a firm agreement. If or when China places their first purchase of U.S. soybeans, markets should react in a positive way. If talks continue to be positive as we near the ninety-day deadline, markets should remain stable, but at this point they’ve been anything but smooth. Where the danger lies is if China does not come to market immediately and do not purchase as large volumes as the market has or is anticipating. The U.S. government may view this as China not bargaining in good faith, which will also have a negative impact on the markets. Anyone who thinks this is resolved and things will go smoothly has to remember that these talks have been ongoing for 2 years. Let’s hope that the two sides get this sorted out before the ninety-day deadline. Soybean bids still hover around the mid $10’s/bu picked up in the yard today. Faba bids have seen no change this past week; feed at $6.50-7/bu, #2 quality at $10-12/bu pending specs.
The lentil market has managed a small rally lately based on reports that India is experiencing below average seasonal moisture. The market was led by #2 large green lentils rising to 22 cents/lb picked up. #2 small red and #1 small green lentils shortly followed suit with picked up bids at 18 cents/lb and 19 cents/lb respectively. Not to be left out, #2 medium green lentils have now joined at 15 cents/lb picked up for some of our US clients and high teens to maybe 20 cents for Canadian product. The market seems to be buying small speculative weather positions. Buyers are often filling these by purchasing producers firm target prices through our grower offer system. With regard to India, last we heard pulse planting is north of 70% complete and running only slightly off the 5-year normal planting pace. The larger concern is the impact of the reduced monsoon rains from October and now lower subsoil moisture. Indian tariff-based protectionist import policy remains the same, so whatever the weather outcome is in India it is likely to be overridden by government policy.
Mustard, put it on your hot dog. Also, a seed crop in Canada that has had very little excitement over the last several weeks. Canadian export numbers remain the same compared to this time last year, but domestic use is down to 800MTS vs 2,900MTS in 2017. With Statcan final production numbers unchanged from initial reports, it would be a factor in understanding the stale market. New crop values have started to be the buzz, but the bids have people talking more about hot dogs than seeding mustard. Not sure if the sentiment is “higher prices or no acres”, but no one is willing to pull the trigger yet. Yellow Mustard old crop $0.34-0.35/lb with new crop at $0.30/lb, Brown Mustard old crop $0.29-0.30/lb with new crop at $0.26/lb and Oriental Mustard old crop $0.25-0.26/lb with new crop at $0.25/lb. All on the farm and all freight dependant. For your mustard planning needs, call us! We have certified seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated, and included delivery to your yard.
Feed barley markets have seen little change with bids holding firm. Good feed barley has traded this past week at $4.55/bu picked up on farm for Jan/Feb movement, depending on location. This market hasn’t seen much change in some time and will likely continue its sideways pattern in the near future. Movement is the variable factor that continues to get pushed further out. There has been some new crop feed barley getting booked with bids seeing $4.00/bu or better depending on location and delivery; act of God has been offered in some cases as well. Malt contracts have been slower to come out so far this year, but we imagine this will change into the new year with buyers looking to secure some acres for the upcoming year.
Chickpea prices holding strong this week with 27.5-28 cents/lb picked up in the yard trading. There are also new crop contracts out at 27.5 cents/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Call our office for details. There seems to be some mixed signals in the market on how large the Canadian chickpea crop was. However, Canadian production is only part of the overall picture. The US crop is estimated at 588,000 tones up from 313,000 tonnes. The US is one of Canadas largest buyers, so this has an affect on Canadian pricing. The lower chickpea prices compared to past years is starting to find some recovery, but that won’t happen quickly. Acres are likely to get cut back in some main growing regions due to the amount of supply available. There is also some interest in desi chickpeas, with an indicated price at 25 cents/lb picked up. For those with off grade chickpeas or higher moisture, we have options, call the office!
The feed wheat market has remained relatively flat this week as bids range from $5.25-$5.50/bu picked up in your yard depending on location. Bids tend to get stronger the further west you go. That being said, we have been seeing opportunities in the far southeast corner of Saskatchewan as high as $5.70/bu picked up for dry and heavy feed wheat. Pricing does get a bit better the longer you are willing to hold on, but opportunities for quicker movement do exist if needed. On the milling side of the market, bids stayed flat at slightly over $7 delivered. Small premiums do exist for protein over 14% so let us know what you have, and we will find our top bid for you. We still have some attractive deferred durum pricing deep in the south east corner for movement in late 2019/early 2020 if you’re able to store it in the bins for a while as well.
Oats remains the same as last week, with little to no change. With yields this year fairly average, you probably will not see big jumps in pricing. For milling quality oats, bids sit between $2.75-3/bu FOB farm depending on freight. If you are in the south east corner, close to Manitoba, you will see bids get stronger as that is the direction most is headed. Feed oat bids are around $2.25-2.50/bu FOB farm also depending on freight. Make sure you let your merchant know if your oats were sprayed with Glyphosate, as some buyers do not want that. With the market being flat, offers are a great way to catch the price you want if there is a little movement, so talk with your merchant on posting one.
The canola market has been marginally stronger this week. Despite some big jumps in the soybean trade due to an informal moratorium coming from China and US on trade hostilities, canola seems rather unaffected. Between movements in Soy, Soy Oil and the Loonie, it’s tough to peg what the Canola market will do next. Current bids around the province are up to $10.25/bu in the yard in some areas, but not widespread as the basis levels are not as inviting in other locations. If you have a target price in mind touch base with your merchant and we can see about posting a firm offer up to see if any buyers can sharpen their pencils a little on basis levels. We will see if Thursday’s release on StatsCan production numbers shakes up the trade at all or if the analysts have been correct in their latest tonnage predictions.
The canary seed market has been solid this week. Some trades have taken place at 23 cents/lb FOB in advantageous freight areas, while other bids hover at 22.5 cents. Recent Sask Ag yield data was lowered by about 100 lbs/acre and we expect the on-farm supply to be a bit tighter this year. This could allow us to see a slight jump in the market, but how big that jump may be remains to be seen. Call your merchant to put an offer in if you’re looking for a little more for further out movement.