Lentil markets maintain pace this week; however, bids do not seem to be deep at current levels. Small reds are still catching the odd bid at $0.35/lb delivered, which equates to $0.34/lb FOB farm in most areas, and this seems to be buying tonnage. These opportunities seem to be slowly dwindling away, so we suggest growers make a sale if they’re sitting on the fence. Moving on to large green lentils, the number ranges anywhere from $0.50 – $0.52/lb FOB farm for #2 quality with light demand and trade taking place. Over the past week, small greens have traded at similar levels as large greens as buyers look to cover off their needs. We highly suggest growers who are sitting on product to put out a firm target to try and catch this early Xmas gift. With StatsCan’s recent report, it will be interesting to see how the market attempts to find itself after showing lower carry over and reduced production numbers from September’s estimates. Australian production still sits in the forefront of everyone’s mind as well with reports indicating quality might not be the greatest. That said, it is not unusual to see some importing countries purchase low quality product at a discount, which in turn could reflect on Canadian values. Although new crop contracts for all types of lentils remain stagnant, call to discuss/ place your firm offer to grab buyer attention.
Feed barley markets continue to speculate about a drop in value as unit trains of corn hit feedlot alley, but so far, bids remain intact. Recent talks of a rail strike that may have affected US corn cargoes seem to be hashed out, so any reprieve from an influx of corn is likely quashed for the time being. Although pricing has come off a touch from the highs seen so far this marketing year, remember that current levels are historically great, if not amazing. Feed barley continues to trade anywhere from $7.50 – $8.50/bu FOB farm depending on area, and we’d bet if we had seen these numbers 3 to 4 years ago most producers would have sold every bushel. There is always a chance for market improvement, but what is the upside? $0.25/bu? More concerning is the downside; should the market reset and find itself, it could easily drop by dollars over night rather than cents over time. Given current interest rates, growers may find that extra $0.25/bu they were looking for is made up by reduced payments. Moving to new crop feed barley, trade remains light, but values are indicated around $6.00/bu FOB farm for fall shipping with potential for better numbers as you move west.
The pea market has softened slightly as we head into the holiday season. Yellow peas show most bids posted around $12.50/bu FOB, with limited options available at $13.00/bu pending freight costs. Green peas prices hold their premium for another week, still quoted around $13.50 – 14.00/bu FOB, based on max 3% bleach. We have seen a higher volume of bleached green peas this year and we do have marketing options, but buyers will need to know the exact bleach percentage to price it out. Please get your peas tested or send us a sample so we can accurately price your product! Maple peas are still leading the pea market in value, but it has pulled back slightly to around $15.50 – 1$7.00/bu picked up depending on variety. There seems to be some farmer reluctancy to sell at current levels and buyers have yet to push bids higher, so we are at a bit of a standoff. New crop bids aren’t available and/or aren’t being quoted yet, but stay in touch with your merchant regarding planting intentions for 23/24 so they can keep you up-to-date.
Chickpea markets remain unchanged week after week. We are seeing peaks and valleys whenever there is the hint of a food tender, but other than that, it has been quiet. When talking to buyers about their success selling overseas, the response is, “the levels trading on the farm are slightly above what we can sell overseas.” At these values, it seems no one is willing to take a long position. Rather, preference is to hold tight and buy hand to mouth. With the Indian crop looming (Mar-April), there is the potential for another round of buying out of Canada before they get their crop off, which could equate to a bump in price, but we suspect it is not going to get beyond today’s level by much. Feed markets also maintain tone at $0.30-0.35/lb FOB farm and buyers are always looking.
Soybean markets have shown some strength this week with nearby futures pushing up about 20 cents, despite reports of the long-term production from South America pushing world soybean supply to all-time highs. Short term weather forecasts in South America are holding things up for the time being, which provides support to this theory. At this point, it looks like things need to continue to really go wrong down south for soybean markets to continue to show support, but they could turn quickly once some positive crop news starts to come out. Talk of rebuilding Chinese hog numbers added to positive news for soybeans as well. Bids here are showing around $17.20/bu range currently, but location, freight rates, and movement timelines all factor in so call the office for a number tailored to your bin. Faba beans show feed interest at $10.25-$10.50/bu range at the yard and some buyers are looking for grower targets on #2 quality at $13 to $13.50/bu picked up on farm.
Canaryseed markets are unchanged for another week. That being said, export levels according to StatsCan are slightly below last year’s average, which was reported then as a “strong pace,” so something is moving! It is incredibly hard to estimate what is on the farm today as StatsCan has not put any focus on canary ending stocks for the last several years. Buyers are indicating that they are buying every week, so despite challenges with growing conditions last year, it seems as though growers are letting go of stock, be it carryover or production from last year. Bids are still holding at $0.38-0.40/lb FOB farm and as of yet, there is no buzz around new crop values.
Spot mustard markets are a mixed bag this week as some buyers choose to soften bids, while others sharpen their pencils. The assumption here is that those who are showing weaker values, likely have covered off some of their short term needs with recently shipped production contracts and overage purchases. Alternatively, those who look to prop bids up, likely need to see some more coverage for nearby. Old crop bids are now indicated around $1.15-$1.18/lb for yellow mustard, $1.16-$1.21/lb for brown, and $1.16-$1.22/lb for oriental varieties, though firm targets may provide some better values. FOB farm shipping is now certainly pushed out until January, but there are rare cases for prompt shipping available if growers can self-haul. New crop bookings have been heavy, especially for this time of the year, which is the main cause for the price slippage that began last week. Bids have pulled back to $0.88/lb for yellow mustard, and around $0.80/lb for brown and oriental. All new crop contracts come with a full act of God on the first 10bu/ac, and we encourage you to speak with your merchant on movement options and firm pricing opportunities. We still have a good selection of certified mustard seed with treatment options and free delivery to farm. We have not sold out yet, but we have to keep an eye on this if you are looking. We do not require the full payment until prior to delivery in the spring!
The common theme for flax markets staying quiet continues to hold true. With higher Canadian prices and a strong flax crop in Kazakhstan, Canadian flax continues to stay less competitive in China and the EU. Looking closer as to why, the Canadian price/tonne being offered in China is US$180/tonne higher than Russia’s, and US$260 higher than Kazakhstan’s. As a result, most of the Canadian flax shipments are staying between Canada and the US – this also being low. Due to the minimal interest, forecasts show that Canadian flax stocks for 22/23 could be the highest they have been in five years. Locally, there are still buyer bids available, hovering around the $20.00/bu delivered mark (southeast Sask) for milling quality and $18.00/bu FOB for #1 quality (all areas). Buyer bids on yellow flax sit slightly higher at $22.00/bu FOB in southeast Sask. With the StatsCan report not showing any surprises for flax, we don’t expect to see much change in the market for now.
Looking at last week’s StatsCan numbers, to no one’s surprise, oats had a big year. Acres harvested were the largest in the last five years at 3,464,500, approximately 500,000 more than 2021, and 600,000 more than 2020. Increased acres and good growing conditions in most of the oat region, pushed production levels to their highest in 5 years. Yield was approximately 1,400,000MT more than 5-yr average reported by StatsCan and this is the reason it is getting harder to find bids today. The milling market, for the most part, seems to have a lot of the orders filled for the year, which is reflected in late season shipping windows. The feed market is still looking for product, but as most growers are sitting on good quality oats, they are not willing to sell at a discounted price. Milling oat trades have been as high as $4.50 and a low as $4.00/bu recently, all depending on movement and freight costs, while feed prices have been as low as $3.50/bu. Bids seem to change daily, and we have seen differences of up to 50 cents between buyers on the same day. With tonnes (tons) of grain available this market surprisingly still has some relatively strong bids available; the hardest part is staying on top of who has the best price on any given day.
Wheat pricing remains a bit passive this last little bit, etching slightly up and then down week after week. Canadian crop production, according to the StatsCan release late last week, shows minimal change from 2020 as no one wants to think about 2021. That being said, with world politics, weather issues this past year in the EU and the US, has wheat inventory on the tighter side. Current wheat bids are fluctuating between $11.40-$11.67/bu delivered in depending on shipment period. On feed, buyers range from $10-10.50/bu FOB depending on farm location and movement time frame, which is looking more like first quarter of 2023 now. We do have one purchaser looking for feed wheat in NW Sask (no soft white) with indicated values around $11.00-11.50/bu – a huge bid for those in the draw zone. Durum bids are slacking off a bit on spot, hanging around $13/bu delivered in. If you’re looking for some new crop pricing, give your Rayglen merchant a call as there are some attractive bids especially in SE Sask.
Canola futures are seeing a much-welcomed jump in value today with both January and March posting $15.50/MT and $14.20/MT gains respectively, at time of writing. Currently, January futures now sit at $865/MT with March trailing only slightly at $853/MT. Spillover support is seen from advances in soy markets, but offsetting pressure keeping canola from taking a bigger run is seen from losses in rapeseed and palm oil markets. Looking further down the line, reports suggest Australian canola production will surpass 7MMT, which will ramp up their exports, consequently reducing Canadian shipments. Interestingly, Canadian year to date shipments to China are on record pace, up a reported 107%. Today, spot canola bids hover around $19.10-$19.85/bu delivered plant pending location and local basis levels. New crop bids sit in the ballpark of $18.40/bu for Sep/Oct shipping, subject to the same factors.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.