The canola market is down $12/MT compared to last week, currently sitting at $814/MT at time of writing. With cheaper offshore choices, the decision to sell comes down to risk management or cash flow at this point. Considering US soy oil will start to lose its market share once the South American soy crop starts makes its way to market, canola prices are still doing fairly well. New crop remains virtually unchanged with pricing from $787/MT – $791/MT. Taking some risk off the table and locking some conservative tonnage in at these values is not a bad play. All markets are volatile right now and the basic fundamentals of marketing need to be considered.
Barley continues into this week without much change in old or new crop markets. Current bids remain at values which should be considered especially when all other markets are so volatile. Although achieving an immediate shipping window is next to impossible, old crop feed barley is still capturing $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm for movement in the next few months. New crop feed barley doesn’t come with much for firm bids, but buyers are indicating values around $6.00-$6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC (no act of God). Freight costs remain one of the hardest struggles with barley, but purchasers are really paying attention to grower targets and have been triggering most that are in their, “wheelhouse,” so please don’t hesitate to throw something out! It’s hard to fathom that 4 – 5 years ago this number couldn’t even be obtained for malt barley let alone into a feed market with a lot less risk. Not to beat on a broken drum, but one cannot stress enough that at these values, a smart decision is to get something locked in.
Pea values haven’t seen quite the hit that other markets experienced over the past couple weeks, but they also haven’t taken a run. Bids, although relatively unchanged, do not seem to be deep anywhere you look. Old crop yellow peas continue to trade around that $12.00 – $12.25/bu FOB farm range with buyers uninterested in sharpening their pencils to purchase above those values. Good quality green peas float along that $13.00 – $13.25/bu FOB farm pricing while knocking off a quarter or two for quality with a bit higher bleach. The major push for maple peas seems to have backed off a slightly, but there remains some buyer interest for variety specific maples in the $16.00-$17.00/bu range. Onto the new crop side of things, yellow peas continue to show some pretty big pricing spreads depending on area and if you are looking to trade something containing an act of God today, firm bids sit around $10.50/bu. That said, grower targets have traded as high as $12/bu in eastern SK. For all the other classes of peas new crop contracts remain few and far between with a lack of firm programs available. If you have a sales target in mind, we suggest throwing a firm offer out to see what sticks. Even if it’s a bit over the market, we may see counter bids indicating desired value ranges.
The flax market has gone just about completely quiet over the past week. Canadian flax supply and asking values are just too much for today’s markets especially when factoring in cheaper sales from competing world supply. Domestic stocks are the second highest in the last 4 years and that paired with a demand number of approx. 335,000MT does not bode well considering 20/21 showed approx. 609,000MT of demand. The past 2 years most of Canada’s exports went to US mills, but this year, that has also slipped due to better American production numbers. Meanwhile, China has been able to procure cheaper product from Russia and Kazakhstan also causing the decrease in demand. At $17.00- 17.50/bushel on old crop most producers seem to be willing to hold for better pricing, which may take until late next year. What might make this market more attractive? Reduced acres in Canada, a crop failure in Black Sea region, or more demand from other countries is our speculation, but most likely there needs to be a combination of those factors. No matter what happens, this market is going to take some time to fix.
Wheat futures saw a fall from recent highs this week as concerns of another Russian offensive into the Ukraine materializes. With threats to Ukraine’s wheat planting area, paired with the Black Sea Grain Initiative needing renewal mid-March, production and export concerns out of the Black Sea corridor are coming to light. Locally, bids range from $11.30-11.70/bu for CWRS 12.5 pro and $11.99-$12.06/bu for CWSWS, month and delivery dependent. Durum prices sit between $12-12.50/bu delivered various plants in Saskatchewan, with new crop durum prices seeing $11.00-11.50/bu delivered on DDC’s. As we head into spring with dry conditions globally, Canada and other durum growing areas will turn their focus to the weather. Major durum growers/importers such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria are experiencing some of the driest conditions in 30 years, causing concern for this year’s crop. Feed wheat prices sit around $10.35/bu for red wheat, and $10.00/bu for white, delivered into Alberta and Sask for Feb-Mar. DDC and AOG contracts are available for 2023 new crop, with one bid including an AOG on up to 35bu/ac at $9.75-9.90 delivered in Sask for Sept-Nov movement.
Chickpea markets are quiet for another week and a phrase that has floated around for years rings true across almost all commodities: “high prices cure high prices.” While the floor for commodities will see a slight elevation from time to time, the ceiling cannot stay up. Chickpeas markets, over the last 2 years, have experienced tight supply, competitive trade markets with lower than N. American values, and now we are looking towards a solid supply for the next crop year. If production has a significant increase, the only way to stay on the global scale is to be more affordable. The fluctuations in current markets are due to buyers being in flat position and then finding opportunity that needs to be covered, hence the slight upticks we have seen. It is a commodity of opportunity right now. If you are planning it for next year’s rotation, start talking new crop values today. If you have it in the bin, set some targets to take advantage of said opportunities.
The mustard market has been going through some serious troubles in recent weeks with bids drastically softening. At first, the price decreases were mostly just affecting new crop bids as acres continued to get locked up, but in the last week or so we have seen some major losses in the spot market as well. Current spot bids are in the range of a buck a pound on all types of mustard, but the market is loose so that may not be the same case in a few hours. New crop prices have slipped to the 60’s in prices (as in cents/lb not the decade) and many buyers have just pulled bids for the time being to sit on the sidelines and see how this all plays out. The main culprits that the analysts out there point to on the price dropping are increased acres for 2023 and some talk of larger stocks. Sure, stocks are larger if you compare them to 2021, but are still historically tight for mustard at this point. Long story short is that basically the seller’s market has flipped to a buyer’s market on mustard, and like many other crops, needs some new news of weather issues or some other problem to straighten things up. Whether or not we get that news is up in the air.
Spot canaryseed has been trading in the $0.36/lb range FOB farm over the past couple weeks, with delivered to plant bids at $0.37-$0.38/lb. We have seen the slow erosion of spot prices in 2023 continue, but new crop bids appear to be at, what we feel are great values. Current 10bpa act of God contracts sit at $0.35/lb delivered to various plants in Saskatchewan and adjustments can be made for FOB farm values if desired. We see this as one of the better marketing options on the table right now as the AOG covers any production and/or quality risk at a historically great value. Exports remain steady on canary, yet spot price has slipped and like always, it poses the question of what the stocks in this province really are. If canaryseed looks to be in this year’s seeding plan, we strongly recommend reaching out to your merchants to lock in some acres. The new crop bid is subject to change at any time, so act now. We may have some seed available so please check with us if you need some.
Oats continue to kick stones on the sidelines wanting to, “play,” with the rest of the group, but are being relegated to the bench. Pricing remains quiet with minimal interest on the buy side. Feed oat prices are sitting around $3.50 – $3.75/bu picked up on the farm with movement in the next couple months. New crop bids are scant, with $5/bu delivered into Manitoba being thrown around for milling grade and glyphosate free. With double the stock in the bins carrying over into the next crop year, it will take nothing short of a miracle to see change in the market. As expected, oat acres will be down with plenty of product ready and willing to fill the spot when needed.
Some small changes to report in the lentils this week, but the overall picture of the market is stable. Large green lentils in the bin are trading at $0.49-$0.50/lb FOB farm for #2 quality. New crop large green contracts with an AOG are available at $0.43/lb delivered for #2 spec. As of today, those new crop contracts include early fall movement, but will get pushed out as positions get filled up. Old crop small greens are trading on offer at $0.48/lb FOB farm, with new crop trading at $0.40/lb FOB farm AOG included. These new crop values for green lentils are historically high and something worth taking a good look at. Old crop red lentils continue to trade at $0.31/lb FOB farm in the right freight areas with potential for slightly higher values if right next door to plant. Despite tighter domestic supplies of red lentils, Australia’s large crop is proving to have a long tail, suppressing local prices. Expectations are that this will continue to be the case for a significant period. If you need to get some reds moved, sooner may be better than later. New crop contracts are available around $0.28/lb FOB farm with an AOG.
The soybean market has paused its fixation on Argentinian production issues and is now refocused on harvest progression in Brazil. As per usual, Brazil’s soybean harvest has begun in the northern most productive states. Brazil’s harvest is projected to be approximately 17% complete at this point. Local market is still in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm this week with limited trade taking place. Despite production concerns in key global bean producing countries, local spot bids are yet to respond in any measurable way. However, local dry bean bids in Mexico have shown promising increases. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.