Last week’s StatsCan report showed a 31% decrease in flax supplies compared to last year: the smallest inventory since 1980 according to analysts. The month of December shows Belgium being the largest importer of flax, followed by the US & China respectively. The price spread between North America product and Russian supply is wide enough to not generate export sales to most European countries or China. Flax prices this week have taken another drop with spot bids now around $30.00/bu picked up. The European flax market has also shifted lower. New crop bids continue to trade sideways at $24.00-$25.00/bu, but we still do not have a lot of buying interest. Time will tell if this market holds, but current trajectory suggests growers should consider making sales on both old and new crop.
Oat markets remain, for the most part, unchanged compared to previous weeks. New crop #2CW bids are still indicated around $6.00 – $6.50/bu pick up depending on location and timeframe of delivery. Although there is no act of God attached to these contracts, a roll over option on quality or quantity loss into 2023 still appears to be attainable. Old crop #2CW values are posting a wide range this week, anywhere from $9.00 – $9.80/bu FOB farm, mostly pending location and shipment window. Although buyers are still purchasing both old and new crop oats, they seem to be comfortable enough as to not “chase” the market. As always, we have an active market for feed oats, but your best bet is to call in with specs so we can track down an appropriate value!
The pea market saw a slight uptick in old crop pricing due to China’s return to the market this week. However, this demand seems to come and go in spurts, so growers may want to consider taking advantage of some stronger pricing before it’s filled. Yellow peas are currently priced at $16 – 16.50/bu, while green peas are bid at $13 – 13.50/bu, both picked up based on a #2 quality. Unfortunately, maple peas haven’t gained much ground with most bids still indicated around $16/bu. That said, there remains a slight opportunity to hit the $18/bu FOB farm mark on variety specific lots. Looking to new crop, bids are relatively unchanged with $12-12.50/bu still attainable in Southeast Sask on yellows. This is a great value to lock in 10 bushels/acre with an act of God. We have had indications on product outside of SE Saskatchewan around $10-11/bu, but these bids aren’t firm, so growers are encouraged to use the firm target system. Similarly, green and maple peas have yet to see any firm new crop values posted, so we recommend trying out a firm offer if you have a target price in mind.
Chickpeas markets are still feeling a bit bearish after last week’s market shake up. StatsCan put out a large ending stock number (292k) that some have questioned and believe could be even 40% lower than their report. Globally, Mexican pace of planting is reported to be up 37% from last year and conditions thus far are favourable. Russia has been buying chickpeas more aggressively which could translate to interest in Canadian supply. Current market bids for old crop #2 Kabuli’s hover at $0.40-42/lb FOB farm with March-June movement. While this price is somewhat attractive, the shipping window has prevented large trade. New crop bid can be found at $0.39/lb FOB farm WITHOUT an AOG and dropping drastically to $0.25-$0.30/lb WITH an AOG. There are only a few players in this new crop game right now so expect that to become more level as we move towards spring.
Barley markets maintain tone for another week as the supply in the bins and issues with logistics have helped support the current values despite corn moving north. Old crop values are $8 to $8.75/bu FOB farm with freight sensitivity and new crop has experienced a bit of a bump at $6.75-$7/bu FOB farm for new crop, no AOG. There is still a lot of discussion as to what will be put in the ground this year, but there seems to be a consensus that selling what isn’t in the bin, is very unlikely. There were a lot of contracts that went the wrong way last year and we believe it will be a rush to market once harvest comes near. The earlier off, the better!
Soybean futures got back on their horse this morning motivated by South American drought related production concerns. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Expectations are favorable for Mexican and Argentinian dry bean crops. Domestic market continues to be adequately suppled due to temperate demand. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. This pencils in as an attractive revenue opportunity for new crop. New crop faba bids are starting to emerge around $8.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. As for old crop, the domestic feed market continues to buoy the feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.
The big news in the lentil market this week was India announcing that they had lifted the lentil import tariff. It did not take long for the news to influence prices. Old crop reds gained back a couple cents moving the price back to 40 cents/lb delivered. New crop also moved back up to 30 cents FOB farm with an act of God. We don’t expect prices to run too much on this news as supply is still deep in Australia and India’s crop still looks good. Tariff eliminations did not do much for green lentils so far this week as bids remain in the 50-52 cent range for a #2. The green lentil market remains to be sluggish as buyers show very little aggressive demand while sellers remain patient hoping for a pop in the market. New crop contracts for large greens are sitting at the 35-37 cent/lb range with an AOG; latter bids are quoted for delayed movement in the fall.
Wheat prices have been off a bit with issues around the world affecting things of late. The situation with Russia and Ukraine has created market uncertainty and obviously the prices are going to reflect that. Ending stocks, as mentioned last week, are very tight, but that news didn’t seem to spur the market too much. Prices today are showing $11.75 del in for the next few months on a #1 CWRS, 13.5 protein, while the feed market has backed off as short-term coverage is met, and buyers are mostly looking into summer months for any purchases at this time. Feed bids are showing $10.50 to possibly $11/bu picked up on farm, which is a bit off from recent weeks. These feed values are nothing to scoff at, but they aren’t what most with grain in the bin are looking for on the last sales.
No change in the canary seed market this week from last, as prices remain consistent. Old crop bids sit at $0.45/lb delivered in with Feb./Mar. movement. Even with historically high prices and little change in value, grower interest to move canary right now is pretty quiet. New crop values are welcoming, currently quoted at $0.36/lb delivered with 10 bu/acre act of God for end of the year movement. Canary remains one commodity that has held its own throughout the general downturn in values comparatively.
Canola markets are in the green today, but this comes after a steady decline throughout the week. Several factors played into the drop we were seeing, with one of the bigger reasons being a significant decline in crude oil with Russia temporarily backing their soldiers away from Ukraine. There is also some general weakness in local basis levels for the nearby months, sending indications of lower demand in the near term. May futures are now trading at $997/MT, down from $1013/MT last week. Meanwhile July futures are at $972, lower from last week at $984/MT. Something to continue keeping an eye on will be South America’s soybean crop, where yield expectations continue to be lowered due to weather issues across large areas. November futures have managed to increase this week and are at $847/MT, continuing the strong new crop bids producers are seeing locally, as high as $19/bu. If comfortable, locking in small amounts of production at these levels makes a lot of sense.
This week saw mustard buyers showing a little bit more interest on the new crop side, while spot remains in the same basic range. New crop brown has snuck up slightly to the 72-74 cent/lb mark with yellow again being bid as high as 80-81 cents/lb FOB farm, both including an act of God. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm with AOG depending on variety. These contracts and pricing continue to fluctuate pending movement timelines, so please talk with your merchant to determine your best option. Spot yellow is being quoted around $1.50 to $1.60/lb FOB range, while brown sees bids around $1.85/lb and all varieties of oriental are quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm. Be sure to talk to your merchant on developing a marketing plan for both old and new crop as things can change daily in this market. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you’re on the fence. Brown and oriental supply remains abundant and available.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.