The lentil market has had a rough go over the last couple weeks as bids have dropped approximately 5 cents/lb across all types. Current bids are tough to hammer down as buyers’ needs aren’t deep at any price; its “buy a little, drop a little”. What we have today is around 37-38 cents/lb on #2 reds FOB farm, 56 cents on a #2 LGL and 54 cents on #1 small greens. The question we keep getting is: “will the prices come back?” Sure, they might, but the lower they drop the higher they have to go on the rebound, so it might be a bird in hand situation. Issues with a larger supply in Australia that is locked due to container shortages and a reported alright looking crop in India are hurdles for the market. New crop values are at 29-30 cents on #2 reds, around 35 cents on #1 small greens and maybe 38 cents on a #1 large green all with an act of God on approximately the first 10 bushels per acre.
Flax markets remain subdued with buyers showing no aggressive demand at this point. Spot bids at $37.00/bu FOB range remain sparce, while new crop values of $25.00/bu FOB with act of God are now also hit and miss. Although supplies are historically tight, analysts believe they are manageable. With new and old crop prices being historically high, we suggest growers take advantage of the opportunities available. That means signing up old crop and locking in the first 10bpa on new crop. Russia has been dominating the flax trade overseas into various markets, which means for China or Europe to have any demand from the Canadian market, prices here need to slip further. Canadian flax values are still priced well above Russian flax prices, which does not bode well for overseas sales. If it’s seed, you’re looking for, call our office today as supplies on flax seed are running tight.
Barley markets remains quiet, yet hot; an oxymoron to say the least. Although the price is a bit lower and demand is quieter for old crop feed barley than in previous weeks, bids are still rather aggressive based on the 10-year, or even 15-year average. There is a widespread number being thrown out there, but we suspect growers can still catch anywhere from $8.00 – $8.75/bu FOB farm depending on area and timeline of delivery. Corn is pushing this value lower and will likely continue to do so, but there might be some periodic price spikes should train deliveries get delayed. These opportunities are likely to be short lived and growers will have a small window to make sales, so make sure to keep in touch with the market. New crop values are bid in the range of $6.25 – $6.75/bu FOB farm, but a target slightly over those values could grab buyer interest. Malt activity is floating around for both old and new crop, so call in and show us what you have so we can track down the best value. We highly suggest avoiding getting caught in the abyss waiting for another $0.25 – $0.50/bu, while having bids drop by dollars overnight!
The oat market remains unchanged this week, unlike most other markets that are frequently finding new lows. Old crop, #2CW quality oats, continue to catch bids around $9.00/bu picked up on farm for shipment in spring/summer, while new crop bids remain at $6 – 6.50/bu picked up pending shipping window and location. Regarding new crop, some buyers are still offering a rollover option for quantity or quality loss should the coming harvest be less than ideal; not quite an act of God, but protection against cutting buyout checks. If you still have feed quality oats in your bin, contact your merchant for a picked-up on farm bid. Buyers will want to know weight of feed oats, so make sure to have that on hand when marketing.
There is lots of debate over what can happen with wheat, which has been the case for some time now, as the market morphs into this see-saw battle of prices rising and falling repeatedly. Today’s price on a 13.5 protein red spring sits around that $11.70/bu delivered into central Sask, etching ever so close to the $12/bu striking range. Feed prices continue to maintain strength around that $10.5-$11/bu range, which is catching sales this week. Switching gears to durum, the Tunisia tender that went out the other day traded at $643-$649 down roughly $50/mt from the last tender. On farm bids hover around $18.50-$19/bu range, with most growers hoping prices to pop back up to $20/bu. The next 4-6 weeks sems to be the window to sell, as durum crops will be coming in and then infiltrating the markets. This is a tight supply/demand situation so keep your eyes on the market. Flipping to new crop durum, strong bids continue to remain at $13-$13.50/bu for fall pickup on #3 or better product.
There are two major and notable markets for chickpeas; first you have the “volume buyers”: Pakistan, India, Turkey and Egypt, they move large chunks when there is a demand. Then you have the “niche buyers”: Europe, Mexico and South America which are single digit container markets with higher upside but smaller volume. Right now, Pakistan is buying chickpeas at USD$1000/MT landed Pakistan which works out to about CAD$0.38-$0.42/lb to the grower in Saskatchewan. Smaller niche markets are radio silent. Indian is planting the seed for another year of record chickpea acres. These areas are dominated by Desi’s with Kabulis being modestly increased. If this becomes actual, India imports may be very low and they could potentially start exporting, which could further hurt the North American market. Some things to keep an eye on are pet food markets and the Indian holiday Ramadan in April. Typically, there is a time to “stock up” before Ramadan and that could produce a spike in interest for North American markets. Additionally, the Gulf Foods show is next week which should shed some light on the global market.
Mustard remains strong but flat this week. After seeing a solid 3-4 weeks of stable pricing, we believe the massive rise has ended and start to notice buyers getting a little more cautious. Spot prices remain at record highs, with yellow and brown being quoted around $1.50/lb FOB (potentially higher on offer) while all varieties of oriental are quoted at $1.00/lb or better. Is this the time to lock in these values while they’re still available? New crop contracting continues at a good pace, which again is not surprising with these price levels. New crop brown and oriental are trading in that 70-75 cent/lb range, with yellow at 75 to possibly 77 cents/lb. New crop mustard contracts include an act of God & are picked up on farm. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow, so please talk to us very soon on if you need some. Brown and oriental supply remains abundant.
The recent rally in soybean futures is being driven by harvest rain delays in South America along with solid domestic soybean crush demand. Delays in the Brazilian harvest increase the prospect for late season shipping opportunities for US exporters. Local bids are location dependent and range from $14.50 -$15.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean bids remain buoyant predicated on the smaller 2021 crops in Canada and the US. Canadian bids are feeling downward pressure from recent gains in the Canadian dollar. Dry bean market needs to see an uptick in demand for these production decreases to create any upward price movement. Faba beans are currently largely driven by domestic feed pulse prices. Feed faba bids are quoted at $13/bu FOB farm and when #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.
The footing seems to be holding right now on canary seed with bids at $0.45/lb picked up on the farm for Mar/Apr shipment. Chatter is pretty tame in this market compared to many others. Most growers seem content to hold out for the next price pull up and buyers seem to be content with their current fill and so the stand off continues. Supply for this year will definitely be running on fumes. Looking ahead to new crop values, buyer bids are ranging from $0.35-$36/lb with a 10bpa act of God. A petty decent starting value to pencil into the books.
This week has brought some strength to the canola market. May futures are up to $1007/MT and were even higher at points earlier in the week. This is better than last week when we were seeing $995/MT. July futures are down today and sit at $981/MT. Much of the strength this week has come from an uptick in soy and increases in crude oil. Tight stocks of canola in western Canada will keep prices high until we get closer to next years crop being available. Looking out to new crop, November futures are at $845/MT. This is another steady jump up from last week when we saw $836/MT. Local new crop bids are available around $18/bu and are definitely worth considering when developing next years marketing plan.
Sales pressure on yellow peas continues this week, while the green pea market is still missing in action. New crop yellow peas closed last week trading at $13/bu with an act of God but opened this week trading between $12.00-$12.50/bu. Now, that too has been filled and as most bids are coming in closer to $11/bu on farm today. Old crop yellow peas are still trading around the $16.00/bu range and possibly higher for summer shipment, but bids in general are getting harder to find. Green peas lagged behind all year and that trend continues. The marketplace seems to have little interest in this product at the moment with buyers’ content to trickle in limited tonnage at $13.00-$14.00/bu on farm this week. With slow overseas demand and cheaper food sources available, don’t expect a quick turnaround in the green pea market. On the other hand, yellow peas are still trading a record high levels and grower should likely take advantage of the remaining opportunities before they disappear.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.