The 2022 pea crop has many unknowns, but analysts are forecasting 60% more supply than last year -still below the 2020 average. Russia has been the dominate exporter of peas with the top importing destinations being Turkey and Bangladesh. Prices into China have now lowered, especially for green peas over the last couple of weeks, which could also encourage some buying. Yellow and green pea bids were mostly sideways throughout last week, indicated at $13.50/bu and $16.50/bu respectively. It remains unlikely that we’ll see a rally in value near term, as this would again choke off demand. There has been some renewed buying interest in maple peas this week, but values remain indicated in the $15-$16/bu range FOB farm. A change in direction for new crop prices likely won’t come to fruition until spring growing conditions become clear.
Flax markets are sideways from last week with bids still holding in the $30-$31.00/bu FOB range. New crop bids are still sparse, but a few contracts are being triggered using our target system. Analysts suspect below average yields for the 2022/23 year unless there is some relief in soil moisture. The price spread between North American product and Russian supply is wide enough to not generate export sales to most European countries or China at this point. Price will have to drastically reduce to become competitive again. Making sales on old and new crop flax makes sense this week.
Barley markets continue to hang around similar levels for another week. Old crop bids, although trending a bit lighter, still seem to be floating in that $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm range depending on area and timeline of delivery. These are great numbers to move product into a rather risk-free market, which has shifted its main focus to corn. New crop feed barley waivers around that $6.00 – $7.00/bu FOB farm without an AOG attached to it. Although this is a rather widespread number, much depends on the area in which it is grown and what kind of timeline you are looking at for movement. The lower end of that range relates to growers looking for off the combine movement (if those opportunities are present), while the higher end reflects a Sept.-Dec. shipping window. With the release of yesterday’s crop insurance numbers, it is inferred more producers will come to the plate to sign something up. Not much has been thrown out in the way of new crop malt, but if you have something firm in mind, bring It to us as all offers will be looked at.
Oat markets are showing signs of slowing down with a handful of buyers now on hold for purchasing. Over the last few weeks, higher prices have helped purchasers snap up both old and new crop, which has provided what they consider good coverage for the time being. That said, old crop bids are tougher to find today, but we encourage growers to continue to show firm offers. Having your specs on hand also helps to market efficiently, whether it be into a milling market, or feed. New crop oat bids are more readily available, although dwindling, with product still likely to trigger around $6.00/bu FOB farm with a deferred delivery window. With yesterday’s release of crop insurance values showing oats at $5.63/bu, getting something on the books at $6.00/bu makes sense. Some buyers are still offering the roll over option into 2023 on quantity and quality so even without an act of God, there is some protection against buyouts.
Chickpea exports have been slow for the calendar year with the US being the largest buyer for pet food and Pakistan being the next choice of destination. It is important to note and to understand that farmer to buyer trade is almost non-existent, while more and more business-to-business commercial trade has been taking place at levels equivalent to $0.42/lb FOB farm. Equal and even higher bids have been shown to growers on farm, but this has generated very little traffic. As old crop values hover around mid forties the new crop side has been seen at either no bid or a deferred delivery structure with no AOG. All of the aforementioned could translate to no confidence in the chickpea market, but this depends on if your glass is half full, or half empty.
Lentils see little change in pricing from last week with news of removed Indian tariffs still in the back of most minds. Large greens lentils hold value at 50-52 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location, while old crop reds see bids in the 37-38 cent range. Small greens are tougher to peg down, but we continue to see light trade at 44-46 cents/lb FOB farm with movement quoted out as far as June. New crop reds are priced at 29 cents FOB farm today, large greens at 37-38 cents and small greens between 33-35 cents/lb, all including a full AOG. When talking to buyers who attended the Gulfood Show, it was agreed that India dropping the import tariff came as a surprise. Buyers felt that it was an inflation play more than anything else, but luckily it has provided some spill over support. This week we still see India buying hand to mouth as the Indian crop is due to come off in short order. Australia still has product to ship as well so Canadian demand is still low compared to past years. Freight costs are another reason why prices and sales have been slower than usual recently, as end users are having to pay twice as much on freight compared to last year. On another note, we wait to hear what producers think on the SCIC lentils numbers and how it will affect their seeding intentions. Keep your merchant up to date with your thoughts and if these crop insurance numbers are going to change your seeding intentions so we can help you market accordingly.
Due to the ongoing tension surrounding Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine, commodity markets are on a roll and canola is no different. Also contributing to the gains are strong soybean futures after continuous downgrades to South American crops. The markets may keep rolling as we hit fresh highs, creating more bullish behaviour. May futures are now at $1038/MT, way up from last week at $997/MT. Out to July we are seeing $1006/MT, also up from last week when we saw $972/MT. For those sitting on a healthy supply, this may be a good rally to sell into to get yourself into a more comfortable position. November futures are also enjoying a strong increase and are up to $866/MT. The possibility of $20 new crop canola contracts locally is not the daydream it once was, and producers should be taking a strong look at selling a small amount of expected production.
Wheat prices have started an upward trend. Feed wheat bids are indicated around $11.25-$11.75/bu today, depending on location, with the strongest bids coming out of the central and southern part of Sask. Delivery windows are being pushed out, but at these values, it may be worth holding onto for spring/summer shipment. Milling wheat prices are picking up as well as tensions continue to escalate and fester between Russia and Ukraine. Couple that with some disparaging crop reporting out of the US due to drought and we see wheat values start to move upwards in a hurry. A #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein sits at $12.75-12.85/bu delivered into central Sask for Apr.-May movement. With crop insurance numbers out, wheat may make a decent play into the rotation showing strong values. Do we see more acre swings? Flipping to durum, bids continue to be lackluster around $15.50-$16.00/bu delivered in with new crop pricing around $12/bu.
Canary bids are in a weird place where the market is seen as “blah” without much for buyer or seller interest. That said, values remain at eye opening levels that would make any canary grower, prior to the past year, leap over their mother to sell… “Sorry Ma, you were in the way and canary was 45 cents, I had to act.” New crop bids are treading water at this time, trying to stay competitive with everything else, but we are not seeing a deluge of customers chasing the 35 cent prices despite historically strong values with an AOG clause to provide protection that a lot of new crop sales cannot. New crop with an act of God is a great play to take marketing risk off your plate, while protecting yourself from having to fill tonnage that you don’t have on a contract; ask your merchant for more details. Product in bin remains tight in the current environment, but spot values are comfortable to hover at current levels around 43-45 cents.
Soybean futures remain pointed upwards, being driven by stronger soy oil S&D and weakening production forecasts in South America. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Optimism still exists for Mexican and Argentinian dry bean crops. Early reports are staging the Mexican pinto crop at 1.5x larger than last year. North American prices continue to be a global high-priced island, thus stemming export potential. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $8.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.
Mustard has been very strong this week, with some surprising trades on both new crop and old. Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.60 to $1.65/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids around the $2.00/lb range. This is outstanding if you have some laying around. Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. New crop brown has shown strength this week again and sits in the 73 to 75 cent/lb mark with yellow being bid as high as 83/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75 cent/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Be sure to talk to your merchant on developing a marketing plan for both old and new crop as things can change daily in this market. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Brown and oriental supply still remains available at this point.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.