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Rayglen Market Comments – February 27, 2019

Not much change happening in the canary seed market. Prices on canary are holding sideways at 23 c/lb fob or 24 c/lb delivered for prompt movement. If you can hold on to it for further out movement, you can expect to get around 23.5 c/lb fob the farm. As for new crop on canary seed, there has been 20 c/lb picked up available with an act of God.  Prices on canary are about a cent higher than they were a month ago due to the next export window which is April / May. Prices are likely to stay fairly sideways though that window as there is still product trickling into the market. There are also seed options available is you are considering putting it in the ground this year.

This week, yellow and green peas are still moving in different directions. Yellow peas are moving sideways, if not softening a bit. Green peas are still seeing opportunities as they trend higher. Chinese demand is in a slowdown, but this seems to be normal for February as most of their volumes come in later in the calendar year, as per Stat reports. Due to this, yellow peas are likely to stay steady with pricing at $6.50-7.00/bu picked up depending on location. We do have new crop values hitting $7.00/bu FOB with an Act of God in areas. Pricing on green peas has moved up slightly again with targets hitting at $12.50/bu picked up in the South on limited quantities. As we are expecting green pea acres to be increased this year, new crop values are at $8-8.50/bu picked up.

With oat prices sitting higher, oats are predicted to have an increase in acres for the 2019/2020 growing season. Stat reports are currently showing around a 16% acreage increase. Delivered bids are pushing the $4.00/bu mark on milling qualities with product being moved into South West Manitoba. On feed qualities, we are still seeing trades at $2.75-3.00/bu picked up just based on the oats being heavy & dry. However, if your product is light we still have movement options. Limited supplies are holding these oat prices quite aggressive compared to other years.

Flax prices are holding stable again this week. Farmer deliveries remain light according to Canadian Grain Commission. Milling quality brown flax is $13.35/bu picked up in the yard while #1 quality is $13.00-$13.15 delivered in. We have some new crop opportunities at $12.50/bu picked up with an act of God. Both old and new crop yellow flax remain around $13.00/bu FOB. Market conditions are likely to remain quiet despite tighter Canadian supplies. Canadian prices are actually relatively higher than other origins. If the Canadian market was competitive to Europe, we would only see about $11.00/bu. Global prices have to be taken into consideration along with the dominate shipments from the Black Sea region into Europe and China. As soybean and canola prices crumble, we can only hope that the flax market does not follow suit.

The canola futures have been slipping the past week with the May futures now trading at $470/MT at time or writing.  This works back a price of roughly $10.40/bu delivered plant depending on local basis levels for March delivery.  Further out movement into June still fetches a premium but has also slipped in recent weeks now hovering around $10.70/bu delivered plant.  Current large canola supplies along with the South American soybean harvest advancing have added to the slow decline.  New crop canola values have also suffered with values now hovering around $10.30-10.40/bu delivered plant for Sept/Oct movement.  At this time, it seems both buyer and seller are in a wait and see mentality with neither making any moves in this market.

The chickpea market remains on the short list of somewhat bright spots in the grain pricing world today. This is not to say we are at historically high chickpea prices or anything but there are some bids around that start with a 3 which cannot be said for much of any other markets. We have buyers still looking for product today and prices get a bit better as movement pushes into the summer months. Most buyers are not too sticky on sizing on product today, but they would like an idea on the sizing prior to booking to plan. We have not come across many bids on desi chickpeas as of late but the most recent market values were mid-twenties picked up in the yard. If you want to get some tonnage booked on fall production, we have buyers showing new crop prices on Kabulis at the 27 to 28 cent range depending on area with an act of God.

Barley continues to show solid demand both domestically and internationally. Tightening world supplies is keeping barley bids well supported in Western Canada and should lead to increased acres this spring. New crop acres are forecasted to rise about 5% driven by the current strong demand. Old crop barley bids are in the range of $4.75/bu fob farm and new crop barley bids hovering near $4.00/bu or better depending on area fob farm. New crop malt production contracts are available at $5.25/bu fob farm.

Soybean market continues to trade largely range bound. Any small rally has been fueled by trade news teasers, but thus far nothing truly concrete has surfaced. Outside of the droning trade tensions narrative, fundamentals remain largely bearish for North American soybeans. Expected US carryout is roughly running at levels 3 times greater than average. US new crop acres are anticipated to drop sub 90 million in favor of corn. Canadian soybean acres are also anticipated to drop for the third consecutive year to a little over 6 million acres. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.25/bu fob farm. Faba bean market continues to have buyers looking for export quality. Local faba bids remain strong for exportable #2 at $10.50-$11.00/bu fob farm and feed values are in the range of $6.50/bu fob farm. Dry bean new crop contracts are now available with options for a few classes of beans.

Feed wheat pricing is up a bit this week. More and more buyers are moving into the market but not seeming to find the supply they are needing which is why we are seeing prices strengthen. Also, some buyers are looking for quick movement so if you have product you want to get out before the road bans, now is your chance. Bids today are between $5.60-6.00/bu fob farm for March movement, could see a premium if you are on the west as you get close to feedlot alley. For new crop feed wheat, we had an offer trade at $5.50/bu fob farm without an act of god, but that is very freight sensitive. Durum is sitting just above $6/bu fob farm on a #1 US Milling quality for summer time movement.

Talking to traders this week, they feel lentil prices may see more downside for the short term as the world is not overly interested in purchasing lentils at current price levels. Oversea traders feel that Canadian supply is large enough to cover any shorts that they may have.  The large green market is at the point where they may soon start to discolor and therefore, the trade hoping to buy at a cheaper prices.  If sellers do not come to the market until June/July buyers may wait for new crop especially if they are both priced the same.  They would rather have the new shiny lentils compared to dull, year old ones. It is kind like a salesman offering you a 2019 truck for the same price as a 2018 which one would you take. Until someone is desperate, or we chew through more of our supplies don’t expect any major price runs.

Mustard prices remain in a sideways trading pattern, nothing moving the market either way right now. Yellow mustard bookings have picked up slightly, with the slight bump in pricing last week.  New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 27 for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35 cents/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35 cents for yellow, 30 cents for brown and 24 cents for oriental. In some cases, yellow may be able to be moved fairly quickly. Oriental bids are variety specific as cutlass type has taken a back seat in marketing lately with a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.