Wheat markets remain strong in Canada as we push forward into this new year. Feed wheat has been trading between $7.00 to $7.50/bu FOB farm across the majority of the prairies and although prices will fluctuate depending on freight costs, it’s safe to say these are some attractive values. Milling CWRS has been trading between $7.65 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% protein, while 12.5% protein product is bid at $7.45 to $7.70/bu delivered. We continue to trickle in new crop durum for early 2022 delivery in the Southeast & South-Central part of the province at $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm pending trucking cost. These are great values to start to hedge some production. Spot business has perked up a bit this week as well with $8.50/bu to $9.00/bu trading in the Southeast part of the province. It is not a bad idea to take advantage of these high prices while they are around.
There have been no signs of wavering in flax markets this week as bids continue to come in at $20.00/bu picked up, with the possibility of strong values if you’re able to defer delivery into the summer months. That being said, if you still have product in the bins, it would be a good idea to be heavily sold. New crop brown flax prices vary from $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB with act of God. Signing acres up at these values takes some risk off the table by hedging the downside risk. Demand from China has been growing but they are also diversifying their flax sourcing. We could see some additional acres put in this year with these prices, not just in Canada but in other markets such as the Black Sea Region. Keep in mind that flax moving from the Black Sea Region into China has had some restrictions at the border recently and it’s only a matter of time before those issues get resolved. For those seeding yellow flax, call our office as we have a couple of options on old and new crop.
Acreage projections have been released for the 2021/2022 marketing year and it is no surprise that pea acres are up slightly, with yellows seeing most of the gain. Acre forecasts show peas increasing to 4.4 million, as per StatsCan. Turning to the export channel and if China remains a dominant buyer, pea supplies are expected to remain tight. Therefore, this could show a positive sign for pea pricing and hopefully increase green pea values too, if acres for greens are in fact down, as projected. For current pricing, yellow peas are still seeing $10.00/bu picked up bids in a few areas, while green peas increased slightly to $9.50/bu picked up ($10.00/bu delivered). Maple pea bids remain at $10.00/bu picked up in a few areas as well, but buyers are hit and miss. For new crop, yellow peas are trading at $8.50 – 9.00/bu picked up (the latter is for a glyphosate free market). Green peas and maple peas are both $9.00/bu picked up on new crop.
It is no secret that several growers will be dropping chickpea acres for the coming season due to disease, price and a lack of real optimism for the market. It is estimated there will be a drop of 24% compared to last year, leaving acres at 225,000. This is still a decent number if the stocks are accurate from previous years, but that is still in question. Buyers have been showing some interest in purchasing again and have started asking what it might take for growers to open the bins. Our thoughts are for the immediate, “come together” price is $0.30/lb FOB farm for a #2 Kabuli. Keep in mind, chickpea demand is limited, not limitless. Feed/Sample chickpeas saw a bit of a hike with interest at $0.19/lb off the farm. New crop values still hover at $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG. If chickpeas are something you are thinking about moving, call to discuss offers and options.
While March canola futures continue their volatile ways, local buyers seem to be more focused on the May and July futures as they buy for the summer months. Keeping this in mind, May futures are at $674.40/MT which is down slightly from last week when they were at $677/MT. July futures are at $650.90/MT which is sideways from the same time last week. Soybeans and most oilseed markets are feeling pressure as South America gets closer to harvesting their soybean crop. Canola markets are feeling the effects a bit less due to low Canadian stocks and the inevitable need to ration demand of those stocks. New crop canola bids are still slightly above $12.00/bu depending on local basis.
Canaryseed continues to hold strong for another week. Spot bids this week have fallen back to $0.31/lb FOB Farm for quick movement, but if you are in the right freight area and can wait until March shipment, you may be able to capture $0.32/lb FOB Farm. New crop prices are strong with bids at $0.27/lb FOB farm with Act of God. The Canadian Seeded Acreage Projections came out with canaryseed acres up almost 10% from last year. Therefore, getting some acres locked up at 10bu/acre might not be such a bad idea and a pretty good starting point for next crop year. Also note, we still have a good supply of seed available if you are looking. With the markets so up and down the last few weeks, talk to your merchant on posting an offer if you have a specific number in mind. Offers don’t always trade, but it’s still worth a shot.
The milling oat market continues to be a solid play as there are bids over $4/bu picked up on the farm for Spring movement in East Central Sask. Pricing is still solid in other regions, so call your Rayglen merchant for location specific pricing. If you are looking to lock in some tonnage on new crop, let us know as there is buyer interest around that $3.60/bu delivered in for Sept.-Oct. movement with Jan. 2022 values at $4/bu delivered in. The closer to East Sask., the better. On the feed side, something to keep an eye out for this last while has been increasing support for feed oats moving to feedlots due to the strong price of corn and other feed grains. Bids continue to hover in that $3 – $3.50/bu range with the ideal weight being 40lbs/bu, accompanied with quick movement.
The mustard market has remained strong in recent weeks as spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on Yellow mustard, $0.36-$0.37 on Brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32 on Oriental mustard. If you have product in the bin and you’re looking to capitalize on today’s values, let us know what your target price is as there is some negotiable points on value or movement that can be explored as well. New crop mustard values are pretty in line with the spot values and one would presume that would encourage some acreage increase this year, but very dry conditions and strength in many other areas of the marketplace are quelling those fires at the moment. Acres in the USA on yellow are still getting some attention, so if you are thinking that these prices may go wild yet, keep in mind we are not the only place in the world that can grow this stuff and higher prices will attract competition.
The soybean market gained what it lost yesterday, but overall is positioned 70c/bu down from mid Jan. highs. There is still plenty of unease in the soybean market regarding South American harvest. The general sense is the Brazilian crop could potentially set records. Low US carryout has the market antsy and eager to see the upcoming USDA WASDE report next week. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50-$15.00 bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Current crop dry bean bids have come off harvest highs due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.
Lentil markets continue to strengthen this week. Large greens lentils are up to $0.36/lb picked up on farm in some locations, with new crop trading at $0.30/lb FOB for #2 or better quality, including an Act of God. Red lentils are trading at $0.30/lb delivered plant, with new crop bid between $0.24/lb to $0.26/lb. The difference in new crop values depend on grower preferences: deferred delivery contracts vs Act of God or FOB farm vs delivered. Small greens have been trading between $0.31-$0.32 delivered this week, while new crop trades between $0.27-$0.28 for a #1 and $0.25-$0.26 for a #2 with Act of God, picked up on farm. New crop prices are strong as buyers fight against many other commodities which also show good returns for the fall. Buyers want to secure acres/production and once they do, we could see prices take a dramatic drop or disappear altogether until we see what moisture and crop conditions look like.
Barley markets remain the same as previous weeks. There is still a huge push into the feed markets for barley sitting in bins, with bids ranging anywhere from $5.50/bu to $6.25/bu FOB farm, location and time frame dependant. New crop feed is roughly the same story and you can pencil in $5.00/bu, give or take pending area, for the 2021 harvest. All the talk is on feed, feed, feed without much to say on the malt side of business these days. Given the number of acres signed up in 2020, maltsters are still pushing to clean their production contracts up before they start heavily targeting new crop. Rumblings are about that you can get around $6.00/bu delivered as malt price, but at the end of the day do you go with what’s easy and target some new crop feed pricing or push to make malt? Some of the newer malt varieties give you a great option to explore both worlds. The extra yield you can obtain might warrant getting rid of some of the older Metcalfe and Copeland and start thinking about the future. A year such as this is a great opportunity to do so. If you pencil in the yield difference alongside the price of feed right now, getting some new seed just may, and more than likely will, put more money back into your pocket at the end of the day. Whether you get $5.00/bu and sell it for malt, or $5.00/bu and sell it for feed – does it really make a difference to you as to which market it pushes into? It shouldn’t. Take some time and really think about the future of the barley world. How long will the old crops continue to stick around and still be bought? Why not get ahead of the game. Sell the Metcalfe or Copeland sitting in your bins right now for feed if you have to and update that seed! Really, it’s a “win-win” situation because when was the last time you were able to get $6.25 for Metcalfe or Copeland and do it with a whole lot less risk?
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.