Canaryseed markets remain unchanged since the start of the new year. Old crop inventories continue to trade at $0.30/lb FOB farm, with both buyers and sellers remaining cautious. New crop contracts are also floating around $0.30/lb FOB farm with an Act of God clause, making it a reasonable price to start locking in some tonnage for the 25/26 season. As expected, the main focus in the agricultural sector today is the ongoing discussion about potential tariffs between Canada and the U.S. However, the overall impact on canaryseed is expected to be minimal. That said, given the apparent lack of strong demand, any significant sales volume in either the old or new crop could influence values.

Barley prices have strengthened slightly over the past few weeks and although the increase hasn’t been dramatic, most areas are able to secure up to $5.50/bu FOB farm on 48 lb, dry barley. The best bids remain for summer movement, but if you need to move product sooner, there are options available— prices are faded about $0.25/bu in most cases. The discussion around tariffs has been pushed out another 30 days, but if implemented, they could actually support local feed barley prices by restricting the flow of corn imports from the U.S. into Canada. If you are looking for new crop pricing options on barley, buyers are actively seeking purchases for fall delivery—contact your broker for more details.

The potential U.S. tariffs continue to dominate market discussions. For the pea market, while Canada does export some peas to the U.S., the majority of shipments go to China and India. Any reduction in U.S. demand would likely be offset by sales to other markets. Yellow pea demand remains uncertain, with pricing currently at $10.50/bu picked up and trade activity slow. New crop values are indicated at $9.50–$10.00/bu including an AOG. Green peas continue to hold firm at $17.00/bu picked up on old crop, while new crop values are bid at $13.00–$13.50/bu with an act of God. Maple peas remain steady at $19.00–$23.00/bu on old crop, with new crop values at $15.50–$17.00/bu all depending on variety. As mentioned weekly, it is advisable to consider locking in some bushels at these values.

The big talk this week continues to be tariffs, and flax is no exception as the U.S. has been a major destination for Canadian flax in recent years. If tariffs disrupt exports into the U.S., Canada will have to compete more aggressively in other markets, where lower-priced flax from Russia and Kazakhstan are already flowing. However, the U.S. still relies heavily on Canadian flax—89% of its flax imports in 2023/24 came from Canada. The exception was the 2021/22 drought year when the U.S. turned to Russia and Turkey for supply. While there are challenges, alternative sources remain limited. For now, we’re in a “wait and see” phase, and prices remain steady due to tight supplies. This week, $18.00/bu picked up is possible for limited needs in February/March.

Brazil’s sizable soybean harvest is kicking off, which could keep prices from spiking too much. According to agribusiness consultancy Céleres, Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop is now projected to hit a record 174 million metric tons, an increase from their earlier estimate of 170.8 MMT. The USDA currently estimates the crop at 169 MMT. Domestically, soybean prices are hovering between $10.75 and $11.00/bu FOB farm. Meanwhile, dry bean markets are finding some support as poor growing conditions in key regions and lower inventories from local processors create opportunities. Dry bean bids are sitting at 50–60 cents/lb delivered, with smaller specialty classes ranging from 55–60 cents/lb delivered. Export interest in faba beans remains low, with bids around $9.00/bu FOB farm for export quality and $8.00/bu FOB farm for feed quality.

With all the cross-border tariff discussions, many are wondering how chickpeas will be affected, given that one of the largest buyers of Canadian chickpeas is the U.S. So far, buyers are still making purchases, and tariffs haven’t had much impact on bids as we receive news of a 30 day pause—but the market remains sluggish. Bids for a #2 Kabuli with over 20% 9mm are sitting at $0.32/lb FOB farm (USD $0.25/lb) for spot business. New crop bids are nearly nonexistent, though buyers seem more open to offers than showing firm bids at this point. Globally, reports indicate that India’s chickpea production has faced challenges, which could eventually translate into stronger North American selling power. However, this remains to be seen. Feed markets remain active and open for business. If you have lower-quality product, let us know—we’ll find a home for it.

Live markets, including wheat, have been closely monitored this week as traders await news and reactions to potential U.S. tariffs. Currently, Canadian wheat exports, excluding durum, are 1% ahead of last year at 10 MMT, while Canadian durum exports are up 80% year-over-year. Poor conditions in both the EU and U.S. winter wheat regions suggest some underlying support for wheat prices, though the situation will need to be watched closely in the coming weeks. Local wheat bids currently sit in the range of $7.00–$7.15/bu FOB farm for soft white and $7.25–$7.50/bu FOB farm for red feed wheat. Milling CWRS is trading just above $8.00/bu delivered Saskatchewan plant, while durum sits between $8.50–$9.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location and quality. In Southeast Saskatchewan, new crop durum is being bid at $9.00/bu FOB farm for September–December shipping, based on a #1 HADU spec. Additionally, winter wheat bids in the same region are at $6.50/bu FOB farm for August–September movement.

The 30-day reprieve on U.S. tariffs continues to create uncertainty in the oat market, particularly for exporters relying on U.S. demand. This has made it challenging to secure stable homes for oats, as some buyers remain hesitant with the potential for tariffs returning once the 30-day period expires. Despite this, there are still marketing opportunities available. Current prices range from $4.00–$4.50 per bushel for oats meeting #2 milling quality, providing a window for growers who meet these specs. However, the market for lighter oats is tightening, with buyer interest fading for product under 38 lbs. New crop values remain slow to materialize amid the ongoing uncertainty.

North American political volatility over the past week has left canola markets relatively flat. Domestic crush remains in question, with uncertainty over potential U.S. subsidies for canola oil and continued tariff threats being delayed for another 30 days. Until a solid trade agreement is in place with the U.S., we may expect more price fluctuations. That said, crush margins are rising, and on-farm inventories are expected to tighten by summer. As of writing, March futures sit at $635/MT, down $12/MT today. Eastern Saskatchewan crusher bids range from $14.00–$14.35/bu delivered for March–July, depending on delivery month.

The lentil market remains steady on old crop, but new crop values have softened slightly this week. Trump’s tariff announcement hasn’t directly impacted Canadian prices but did lead U.S. buyers to pull back bids. The tariff news also disrupted logistics, causing delays in cross-border shipments earlier in the week. Large green lentils are trading at 60 cents per pound for an X2/1 grade and 58 cents per pound for #2. New crop values range from 47 to 49 cents per pound for #1, depending on location and buyer. Small green lentils are trading in the 52 to 53 cent range for old crop, while new crop values are at 43 to 44 cents per pound for #1 spec. Red lentils continue flat with trades at 34 cents per pound on old crop and 30 to 31 cents per pound on new crop. All old and new crop prices are indicated as FOB farm, with new crop pricing including an Act of God (AOG) clause. At these levels, lentils remain highly profitable for both old and new crop, yet sales have been slower than usual. If acreage increases as much in small and large greens as some analysts predict, locking in these current values may be a good starting point for the next growing season.

It seems the mustard market is closely watching the tariff situation, as prices remain relatively stable. At this point, it’s unclear whether mustard will be exempt from the tariffs, and there’s uncertainty about whether they will even be implemented. However, it’s worth noting that the U.S. imports most of its mustard from Canada, making this an important factor to keep an eye on moving forward. Spot prices for brown mustard are currently in the range of $0.32–$0.33 per pound, depending on delivery timelines. Yellow mustard is trading between $0.42 and $0.44 per pound, with typical price variations based on delivery schedules. Oriental mustard remains the quietest market, with spot prices largely bid in the low $0.30 per pound range, though bids may be stronger if movement is extended to June. If you have oriental mustard on your farm, consider reaching out to your merchant to post an offer. New crop values are generally aligned with current spot prices. Mustard markets may have potential for improvement should acreage decreases globally materialize. If you’re able to hold onto it for a while, prices could increase over the long term. Contact us about seed options—this could be a great opportunity for the 25/26 marketing year.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.