Flax markets continue sideways with bids in the $16.50-$17.00/bu picked up range depending on area and movement timeline. Stocks remain heavy due to low export demand and prices are not expected to go higher anytime soon. So, options seem to be sell into today’s market, or hold it until next year and see if, and hope for, value improvement. The Black Sea region continues its strong export pace to China and Europe and will keep those regions well stocked throughout the rest of 2023. Canadian prices on flax are still not low enough to be competitive into the offshore markets. The lack of new crop bids available also concurs with the lack of demand. For those with yellow flax in the bins, call our office – while limited, there are options.
The oat report comes without much change in nearby or forward markets, and after StatsCan’s recent release suggesting carryover stocks up 136%, we don’t expect to see change for a while. Although it sounds like 2023 seeded acres will be down this year, carryover production from 2022 will likely keep stocks more than comfortable next year. Purchase demand remains lackluster, but there are some bids popping up around $3.50/bu for both milling and feed qualities. These opportunities do not appear deep and come with a bit of buyer convincing, so if you’re looking to make a sale, it may be beneficial to move sooner than later. For those who have decided to dig in their heels, we suggest keeping a keen eye on this market and being ready to make moves if/when small one-off opportunities pop up. A final thought: many producers are sitting with oats in grain bags and even though the values may not be what was expected, you may be ahead saving the time and effort moving product from bag to bin as this market doesn’t show any sign of a major positive price swing any time soon. New crop values remain virtually unchanged without much for posted pricing unless pushing into the mid 2024; call your merchant for details.
The pea market has been quiet this week with both buyers and sellers not overly active. Current spot markets would show some trade at $12 – $12.25/bu picked up on farm for #2 yellows, $13 to $13.25/bu picked up on farm for #2 green peas, and $16- $17.50/bu picked up on farm for #2 maple peas with buyers being particular on variety. New crop prices on peas are a little tough to find these days and value ranges are wide. For example, new crop yellow pea bids are quoted at $10.50/bu in some areas and $12/bu in others with an act of God. New crop green and maple markets have not fully formed yet, but we have had some targets at $12/bu picked up with act of God trade on the greens and $13- $14/bu trade on maples thus far. Pea acres are expected to slip again this year as issues of marketing, agronomics, carryover, and grower apathy all add to the pile of issues.
Spot canaryseed maintained a steady pace throughout the month of January, trading at $0.36/lb to $0.38/lb on farm. As the first week of February wraps up, we are seeing similar values with bids at $0.37/lb delivered prompt to various plants in Saskatchewan and $0.35/lb FOB farm for Feb/Mar movement. New crop bids continue to appear, with more buyers entering the market. We are seeing $0.35/lb delivered to various plants in Saskatchewan and growers can factor in approx. $0.01/lb for FOB movement. Most new crop contracts include an Act of God on 10bu/acre. We see new crop canary values at $0.35/lb with an Act of God as one of the stronger marketing options on the table right now. Looking at Canadian markets, Tuesday’s StatsCan report showed supplies at 95,000 tonnes as of Dec 31 – much lower than previous years. Exports continue to hold strong, with Mexico being the largest buyer and purchasing at record pace. Despite reports on low supplies and strong exports, canary bids have inched lower by a few cents since December, meaning supplies could be more comfortable than suggested. If canaryseed looks to be in this year’s seeding plan, we strongly recommend reaching out to one of your merchants to lock in some acres before values slip.
Chickpea market values are relatively unchanged from last week, but the availability of sellers seems more readily available. Discussion around Canadian production is still pushing for a big year regarding acres with similar assumptions globally. It is expected that we will see increased acres in Turkey, Russia, and Argentina, which will put obvious pressure on North American supply values. The next point of market direction is the looming Indian crop, which is speculated to have strong production and if true, India will be aggressive on their selling points to ensure movement. India is one of the hardest places to get information out of so this should be taken with a grain of salt. Gulf food in Dubai will take place on Feb 20th which will shed some light on Indian offers in turn setting the bar for North American values. Good quality #2 Kabuli chickpeas are valued at $0.50/lb FOB farm for 60-day movement with new crop bids at showing quite a spread from $0.40-$0.45/lb with an AOG and freight sensitivity. Feed markets, as always, are on the hunt with values quoted around $0.30/lb FOB farm on a wide range of down grading factors. Desi markets are still popping up from time to time with similar values to Kabulis and worth a conversation if in the bin.
Barley prices did not see much change from last week. Bids for old crop feed barley sit between $7.50-7.75/bu FOB farm in Saskatchewan (SE corner included), with potential of $8.00/bu triggering the farther West you move. New crop pricing is an attractive option today, sitting around $6.50/bu, which is starting to grab some attention. Delivered bids on malt barley in Alberta range from $8.60-8.70/bu depending on movement, whereas Saskatchewan and Manitoba see delivered malt prices at $8.30-8.40/bu and $8.75-9.30/bu respectively. Act of God and DDC contracts are available on malt barley, with one buyer bidding $6.85 FOB farm for new crop Copeland with a 23bu/acre AOG. An important note on global markets – representatives from China and Australia met on February 6th to discuss removing sanctions and tariffs on numerous Australian commodities, barley included. Experts believe relationships are improving with China’s Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, saying he was, “looking forward to professional, candid and practical exchanges of views.” With the potential for Australia’s barley to again become a source for Chinese imports, pressure could be back on Canadian barley – hence our view on signing new crop barley at $6.50 being a strong move today.
We continue to see a fairly big pullback in mustard prices over the past few days. Both old and new crop are under pressure, and we urge growers to talk to their merchant about sales sooner than later as prices can change very quickly in this environment. Unlike only a few short weeks ago, grower targets above market value have not been very successful and the prices indicated today are just that – indications. Spot values are quoted around $1.16/lb for yellow, $1.14/lb for brown, and $1.20/lb for cutlass oriental, with other varieties of oriental sitting around that $1.10/lb mark. New crop contracts are sitting at $0.70/lb for yellow, $0.65/lb for brown, and $0.70/lb for oriental. Growers sitting on the fence about selling new crop are encouraged to get something locked up now before values fall further. Call us for movement options as we have both quick and deferred shipping windows available. Seed is still available, but we have had some varieties sell out again this week, so we suggest if you have not secured your seed to give us a call; all sales include delivery to your yard.
Wheat has seen a friendly and welcomed bump from markets’ close yesterday. StatsCan numbers show a decrease of wheat stocks by just over 1-2MMT in AB/Saskatchewan from 2020, skipping 2021 as stocks will all have seen an increase from that year’s drought. USDA numbers have also come out, and on the global supply side of the USDA report, there was an increase of 2.5MMT production mainly coming from the Aussies with harvest coming to a close, and Russia. A big question mark still looms with US increase in planted acres, but with poor whether conditions what comes of it? Looking locally, wheat values into central Sask range around $11.50/bu delivered in on a #1 CWRS 13.5 protein during prime seeding months with a slip in price for June/July shipment. Soft white is catching some attention as well with $11.55-$11.75/bu delivered in quoted for March and April respectively.
While there’s been some ups and downs over the past week in the canola market, March futures are essentially unchanged from our last report. Last Wednesday, we recorded a $825/MT future at time of writing, and as of this moment, we sit at $826/MT. Expectations of a large Brazilian soy crop still looms heavily on our canola market and may be a good reason to sell some more canola to put your farm in what you consider to be a comfortable position. Export markets don’t seem to support prices in today’s range as we continue to rely on domestic crush to keep prices high. November futures also remain sideways from last week with bids working back to $17.50-$17.75/bu delivered in the fall, still a strong starting point on a small amount of expected production.
Harvest rain delays in Brazil and dry conditions in Argentina continue to be soybean market influencers. USDA took domestic soybean stocks higher, but reduced global stocks based reduced Argentinian production estimates. Local market is in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Despite production concerns in key global bean producing countries, local spot bids are yet to respond in any measurable way. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes, to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids for export quality #2 faba bids are in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Lentil markets seem to have stabilized this week with not much change in pricing. Old crop large greens are still trading between $0.48 and $0.50/lb FOB farm depending on location and movement time frame. New crop large greens are trading between $0.42 and $0.43/lb FOB farm with an act of God. Small greens stay their course as well, still trading in the $0.47-$0.49 range, with new crop around $0.38-$0.40/lb. French greens are trading as high as $1.05/lb for old crop and new crop is filling fast at $0.60/lb with an AOG. Red lentil demand and values remain lackluster, but growers can likely lock in some product around $0.30-$0.31/lb FOB on old crop and $0.28-$0.29/lb on new crop. December stocks figures came out yesterday showing that lentil supply is roughly 400,000MT below the five-year average currently sitting at 1,439 MMT. Normally we ship between 1.0-1.4 MMT through the months of Dec -July and if this holds true, July ending stocks should be somewhere between 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT. this means supply maybe tighter than normal, but more product available from Australia will likely keep Canada from reaching those historical shipping numbers (1-1.4 MMT). It is assumed that these numbers will likely not have much effect as the market had a good idea of the Canadian stocks already.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.