The feed wheat market is running mostly sideways this week. It seems $11.50/bu picked up on farm is attainable in most corners of the province, but that price comes with a movement window pushed into the spring timeline in most cases. Current bids, in many locations, on #1 CWRS do not show much better and in some cases are worse than the feed price. When comparing these two, #1 wheat bids are quoted as delivered plant, rather than FOB farm. Current bids on durum are floating around $21/bu for #1, 13% protein in many areas of the province; product remains in light trade. There have been some prices indicated for new crop fall delivery durum in and around the $13/bu mark as a starting point, but these contracts don’t carry an act of God, so there is some inherent risk there as well. If you want more info. on any of those programs feel free to reach out to us.
The pea market remains the same for yet another week. Most of the demand for yellow peas is coming out of the United States as we have priced ourselves out of the overseas markets. Therefore, if the US and local demand slows down, we may see yellow peas pull back a bit. Currently, yellow peas are priced at $17 – 18/bu picked up, with the latter being seen in limited areas and for pushed out movement. Green peas bids are at $16/bu delivered but this market remains quiet as demand continues to be lacking. Maple peas have slipped a bit with bids now at $17 – 18/bu picked up. Looking at new crop, the only peas with a posted bid are yellows at $13/bu FOB farm, location dependent, so speak with your merchant on details.
The barley market and consequently pricing seems to have found some equilibrium based on comments made in earlier reports. Corn is starting to supply many feed lots so demand for feed barley seems to be slowly dropping off. There is still opportunity to sell $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB today, but don’t expect the movement to be any sooner than March forward. Previous barley purchases seem to have buyers covered for Jan. to Feb. timelines, especially when you factor in corn subsidies or in some cases replacement in rations. The malt side remains quiet for trades, but demand is still seen from a few buyers. Your best bet is to call in with specs & details and let us see what values are attainable, but recent indications have come in around $10.50/bu FOB. We aren’t seeing too much for quotes on the new crop side of things, but we suspect targets around $6.00/bu FOB farm for feed and $8.50/bu for malt may get some interest. Although contracts are quoted without an act of God, locking in 10-20% of your expected production should be pretty conservative, offering you a good start to cashflow and bin space.
No change on the canary seed front as the market continues to hover around $0.50/lb picked up with pushed out movement, predominantly March onwards. If you are looking to get some activity a little sooner, knock the price back a penny or two as shipping for Jan./Feb. continues to be tight as buyers appear to be decently positioned. The next export shipping period for canary will be Apr./May so it will be interesting to see how much volume buyers still need to purchase to fill the boat. With tight stocks the last couple years now, pricing looks favorable moving forward for new crop. Buyer interest with an act of God ranges around $0.35-$0.37/lb depending on farm location.
Flax markets have become quiet in the new year. The highs we saw a month ago have trended down and this week prices sit at $40.00/bu or less. New crop pricing can still be captured at the $24-$25/bu range, picked up with an act of God. Signals from oversea markets are weaker as there is competition from the Black Sea region. There is also some demand rationing taking place. This trend is something we saw coming as the US market kept the prices high, but their demand has been filled. New crop yellow flax indications are around $30.00/bu. Seed supply remains tight, so if you are needing seed for 2022, best to call our office sooner than later.
Lentils had another slow week of trading with the feel that values may be backing off a little. Common bids seem to be around the 44-45 cent/lb mark for red lentils, 62 cents/lb on large greens and 59-60 cents/lb on small greens, but bids are getting harder to find as the week moves along. Not much has been seen yet for new crop lentil programs, with buyers and sellers seeming to be a couple cents apart on pricing. A minimal number of small reds have traded around 30 cents/lb this week, while small greens are bid around 40 cents/lb delivered for #2 quality. Large green lentils remain pretty much a non-topic but based on some medium green lentil trades done in the US, large greens should likely be valued around that 35-37 cent range for a #2. We will wait and see what price farmers try to target or if a buyer steps up with a program. At this point in time, conversations with buyers indicate that there will be contracts available, but not to expect large quantities being booked. Once a program fills that maybe it for the year.
Chickpea markets have seen a sharp decline in value over the last 7 days. Bids for a #2 or better Kabuli went from $0.53/lb FOB farm to $0.485/lb overnight. Current values are hovering around $0.45/lb FOB farm for Feb.-April movement and the phones are lit up with sellers looking for that $0.50/lb option. So, what happened?! One explanation and most plausible is time… the current levels on a global scale have not been supportive of trade and therefore the bins remain closed. As time has passed, other countries have harvested, seeded, sold… rinse & repeat to the point where the demand out of North America is minimal. Pet food is one of the main drivers for chickpeas and the depth of that market is not endless. So, what does it take to see a spark in this old dog?? World Food Tender? A wreck from an international market? Sudden demand to replace perogies with chickpeas?? New crop has a bit of chatter, as well as rotation concerns, which could mean more chickpea acres than initially anticipated. Seed will be in demand so if you want another opportunity or are looking to get a leg up, send your sample off for grading tomorrow morning and know what is in the bin. New crop values are a shot in the dark but rumblings from $0.30-$0.35/lb are being heard.
Mustard markets are still wildly strong with spot product showing bids above a buck on Oriental, Brown and Yellow and in some cases the bids are closer to a buck and a half. That said, tradeable levels are still above current bids so if you’re looking to sell what is in the bin let us know what the number is you’re looking for and we will post up a firm target. New crop contracts are all above 70 cents now as the last week has perked up a little bit on oriental to catch up a little to brown and yellow. New crop mustard contracts of course include an act of God & are picked up on farm. To top it off, we have buyers showing interest in movement terms suited to your needs. If you need seed we have options on certified seed, treated or untreated, at delivered to your yard prices.
For the first time in a while, this week brought a drop in canola futures. March futures are at $1010/MT, which is down from the $1026/MT we were seeing last week. Most of the losses have come on Wednesday with only slight drops on Monday and Tuesday. Some profit taking as well as uncertainty leading up to today’s USDA report have caused some of the declines. The USDA report should give indication to how yields are expected to be affected by dryness and heat in South America. Strength in energy markets could keep prices positive moving forward as well. Looking out to new crop, November futures have stayed sideways from this time last week and are trading at $790/MT. This has translated to some local bids over $18 and it’s worth taking a look at these options while prices are high.
The top focus for soybean markets is today’s WASDE report and South American forecasted production. US soybean production was adjusted up slightly, but the bigger story is reduced production out of South America. Early harvest reports out of the Northern Brazilian state of Mato Grosso are positive, however the Southern states are where the concern lies. More will be known as harvest progress continues to move south. As for today, those concerns have the soybean market rallying with local bids of $16.25/bu FOB farm. Domestic feed values continue to support the Faba bean market. Feed fabas continue to trade near $13.00/bu FOB farm and #2 export quality is trading around $15.00/bu FOB farm. Dry bean market news is focused on Mexico and Argentina. Mexican bean crops appear to have produced above average volumes as local bids have been slipping as of late.
The oat market is enjoying strength due to a 30% decrease in available supply relative to the previous 5 years. A somewhat return to normal demand pattern is also assisting in stoking the fire. Old crop milling quality oats are trading around $10/bu FOB farm and feed quality oats are around $7/bu FOB farm, quality dependent. New crop milling oat contracts around $6.00/bu FOB, with a roll over option to the following year on tonnage or quality shortages, can likely still be had. New crop planting intentions are anticipated to be up as oat production economics pencil well.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.