Saying it has been a good week for canola futures would be a massive understatement. Expectations of tightened stocks being reported by the USDA on their Jan. 12 report led to strength in the futures. Those expectations were realized in a big way as ending stocks were lowered on all US corn, soybeans, and wheat. At time of writing, March futures are sitting at $687/MT. This is up from $652/MT last week with reports of $15.00/bu FOB farm out there for March/April pickup. November futures are currently at $552/MT, leading to some new crop bids over $12 depending on local basis. Keep looking out for your best local basis options and consider locking in some historically high values.
The feed wheat market keeps gaining strength, now with the possibility to capture $7.00/bu FOB farm in many areas for summer delivery. Spring wheat futures were doing well yesterday, but they finished slightly behind the rest of the markets. Producer bids for milling CWRS range between from $7.50 to $7.65/bu delivered based off #1 quality and 13.5% protein. Growers with 12.5% protein wheat are able to capture values slightly lower, from $7.30 to $7.45/bu delivered with further out movement. Pending freight costs, growers may be better off selling into the feed wheat market at this point. We have been seeing bids on old crop high quality durum at $8.75/bu delivered into certain locations and growers still have some decent opportunities available if looking to make sales.
The only positive changes in the pea market, as of late, seem to be on yellow side. Old crop yellow peas have been trading at $9.75/bu delivered and while analyzing the past 10 years, yellow peas have been above $8.75/bu only 15% of the time. Therefore, moving some yellows into this market does not seem like a bad play to hedge the downside risk. China is the whole yellow pea market right now and they remain a strong buyer into their feed channels, however this is a vulnerable market. India has not been a player and with their rabi crop going well so far, they likely will not be. Green peas remain quiet with buyers unexcited to purchase and farmers looking to sell. Current price is $9.00/bu picked up. Maple peas saw a slight increase to $10.00/bu picked up in a few areas, with targets being a key factor in trading. For new crop, yellows are getting buyer interest at $7.50/bu, however, $8.00/bu picked up has traded on firm target. If yellows start trading in all areas at $8.00/bu FOB, we can expect acres to be going up.
The barley world is trending in an interesting fashion as of late. Although there is not much talk on the Malt side of things and markets seem to be fairly bullish, the price of feed does not have many asking why. Old crop feed can easily pencil out $5.00/bu to $6.00/bu picked up, depending on how long you want to sit on it. Rumblings of new crop feed prices are sitting anywhere from the $4.50/bu mark up to $5.25/bu, area dependant. Given the current markets, now would be a great time to start thinking about what variety of barley is best to seed. If your end game is pushing product into a feed market, exploring some of the newer malt varieties out there would be a great option. Varieties like Synergy, Bow and Connect have been proven to get you higher yields than the old days of Metcalfe and Copeland. Seeding any of these gives you a double window for opportunity. On the Malt side of things, if prices take off and your quality is to spec, you can source it out that way and still achieve the Malt value to put towards your bottom line. If feed prices stay strong and/or you don’t make malt spec, the extra yield will also give you higher returns. Contact one of our Rayglen merchants today to discuss seed and pricing options!
Pricing on oats has stayed strong this year with a record number of exports, approximately 1 million tonnes, already recorded as of week 22. We’ve seen a slight increase in US shipments, but also coming out of the woodwork, is a demand from Central and South America with buyers we haven’t seen before. Canada has even “stolen” some export opportunities from Australia into destinations such as Mexico, which may swing back to favor the Aussies with decreased pricing; something to keep an eye on moving forward. As we continue to tick away into the month of January, pricing remains firm with delivered in bids pushing upwards of $4.30 – $4.60/bu in Manitoba. So, depending on movement timeframe and farm location $4.00/bu picked up is a possibility. Hotspots tend to be along the SE Sask/Manitoba border. That being said, we have seen quotes of $3.60 – $3.70/bu in NE Sask. So, give your Rayglen merchant a call for price specifics at your farm. Feed continues to fluctuate between $3 – $3.50/bu with buyers looking for 40lbs oats. New crop milling oat values are ranging from $3.50 – $3.75/bu delivered in depending on movement timeframe with the latter pushing into 2022. Seeding intentions for the upcoming year remain interesting as there may be too much competition for an increase in oat acres with musings that we may see a dip. Time will tell.
Red lentils gain a little strength this week, while greens remain flat. A few buyers have strengthened their red bids this week by one or two cents and as we write, trades are taking place between $0.27-$0.28/lb picked up on farm in a few areas. Large greens remain in that $0.33-$0.34/lb mark FOB farm, again pending freight costs. Small greens have been in light trade but bid at $0.28-$0.29/lb picked up. New crop programs are starting to become available with reds at $0.22-$0.23 FOB farm with AOG on #2 or better quality. Large green lentils are bid at $0.27 cents FOB farm with AOG basis #2 quality and small greens at $0.24-$0.25 for #1 quality. Lentils once again show a decent return on investment based on our yearly crop planner. They pencil out at 18%-21% return on investment, putting them in the top 10 crops to grow this year based on this week’s new crop pricing.
Canaryseed markets seem to have come back to life this week with buyers starting to poke around for new crop acres. Right now, we are seeing bids at $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm available in most areas with an act of God. That may be a good place to start to hedge 10bu/acre considering our previous 5 years of lower pricing. Old crop hasn’t seen as much interest this week as new with bids down slightly. Bids at $0.32/lb are no longer available for quicker movement and it looks like $0.31/lb FOB farm is the new normal. If you can wait and road bans don’t affect you, $0.32/lb may work for Spring movement on firm offer. With the market fluctuating on new and old crop, offers are the way to get buyers attention right now.
While it is still very early, chickpea acres are forecast to decrease for the upcoming crop cycle in Canada by about 8%. The US revised reports showed production for the 2020/21 crop year down by as much as 31%. This could translate to better value for bushels in the bin, but through conversation with growers, there is still plenty of product to go through before any sizeable movement happens in the market. New crop values range from $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm for #2 or better large Kabulis with an AOG and discounts down to smaller sizes. Current crop values remain the same, ranging from $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm in most cases, with the odd $0.28-$0.29/lb popping up. Renewed interest for old crop Desis has popped up, so if there are any in the bin, please give your broker a call!
Flax prices once again remain strong this week with prices ranging anywhere from $19.00-$20.00/bu picked up in the yard. New crop is steady at $15.00/bu also picked up with an Act of God. Yellow flax is about par. Demand from China has been growing but they are also diversifying their flax sourcing. We could see some additional acres put in this year with these prices, not just in Canada but in other markets such as the Black Sea Region. The biggest question is whether there is more upswing in this market or if demand will be rationed. Prices in Russia and Kazakhstan have been sideways over the last while since buyers are not willing to overly chase the market. It is no surprise that supplies will be tight going into the next crop year, so if you have not priced out any flax as of yet, now is the time to start locking some in.
Soybean prices spiked higher yesterday as the USDA WASDE report tightened supply estimates. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50/bu -$15.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean story remains similar to previous reports, whereby export bids are slim due to a return to normal in global export competition. The faba export market is a long shot this year, but if an opportunity were to develop it needs to occur no later than mid to late Feb. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry beans have seen strong bids this fall but will be under pressure from a rebound in supply from the fall harvest. There are widespread reports of an unexpected new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.
Mustard has been fairly busy this week with the uptrend continuing on brown. Historically very strong, spot brown mustard now sits at $0.35/lb FOB farm for January to March pickup with potential for higher on firm offer. Yellow and Oriental continue flat, with spot yellow sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for February to March movement. Forge Oriental is at $0.32 for Feb./Mar. and Cutlass Oriental remaining the outlier, but now steady at $0.28 FOB for that same window. New crop brown mustard is steady at $0.35/lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb and Oriental as high as $0.30/lb for the same time period. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.