Flax prices this week vary depending on location. We are seeing bids anywhere from $12.00-$12.25/bu picked up in the yard on #1 and milling quality. The USDA reported last week said that US flax supplies would drop by 90-100,000 tonnes, due to the lower seeded acres. Flax prices in the US have not reacted to the smaller production as this estimate was already anticipated. Canadian exports picked up in December with the majority moving to China; however, Russian flax has also been making its way into that market. Linseed production is up 22% in the Kazakhstan region, higher than the record set in 2016. In general US demand for Canadian flax should remain strong through 2017/18. Prices should remain firm to higher until closer to the 2018 new crop. The yellow flax market has been quiet with some bids around $13.50/bu. We still have markets for off-grade flax so talk to your merchant about pricing and movement.
Canaryseed values have been affected by millet markets. Birdseed packagers prefer to use millet because of its lower cost. There are also larger production numbers on millet this year, which makes it hard to see a price change in the canaryseed market in the foreseeable future. Canaryseed production is most likely higher than reported by Stats Canada as well. Exports are on pace to be around 150,000 metric tons for marketing year, which is suggesting that the crop is at least 25,000 metric tons more than opening season data. Pricing on canaryseed is sitting around 19.5 to 20 c/lb FOB the farm, depending on area.
Pea markets are still facing similar challenges out of India. Tariffs remain in the forefront of everyone’s mind along with increased pea planting, 5% above the 5-year average. Looking at the weather in India, they have had very little rain, but they are experiencing mild temperatures, which mitigates things. Also, it is way too early to tell any crop outcomes. India’s pea pricing has been turning higher, which could suggest that supplies aren’t as heavy as initially thought. This raises questions that maybe import demand could return sooner than expected. For pricing, we have $6.50/bu picked up on yellow peas and $8.00/bu picked up on green peas. Looking to the future, prices are expected to stay steady with green peas having more potential upside.
Barley this week has taken a bit of a shift backwards. With corn still easily entering the market as a substitute, prices are now low enough that we are seeing the price of barley fall. There is a lot of supply left in the bins and movement is getting pushed out. Malt barley prices have not been great and we are seeing farmers dumping into the feed lot for quicker movement, with very little risk of discount or rejection. Prices right now are $3.85/bu FOB Farm in certain areas for a January-March movement. You may be able to find a premium if you can haul primary weights in the spring. Offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.
Sometimes it feels like we write the same report over and over, but the chickpea markets remain one of the lone bright spots for the time being. If you have unsold large Kabulis in the bin we have a few buyers looking to cover some sales, so touch base with your merchant. On the new crop prices for large Kabulis, bids remain at 38 cents FOB farm for #2 product and contracts include an Act of God. Kabuli acres are increasing in many corners of the world so the supply issues that have hit the lentil market loom over chickpeas and a new crop contract will most likely be a savvy move. The desi chickpea market has gotten beat up lately with bids down to 23.5 cents a pound on #2 quality for both product in the bin and forward selling with AOG coverage.
The oat market has had very little news as it continued its sideways trend over the past few weeks. Feed bids are still popping at $2.10-$2.20/bu picked up in your yard. These prices are based off heavy and dry feed oats. With that being said, if you have any off-spec oats we have opportunities at slightly lower prices so be sure to give us a call to see what we can do for you. #2 CW oats are trading in the $2.30-$2.50/bu in your yard. Typically, prices get better the further south the oats are located, but sometimes small opportunities show up, so be sure to get your target offer in with your merchant to try and catch a premium.
Soybean futures have been up since the January 12th USDA report. The trade felt the report was less bearish than had been expected. U.S. ending stocks were only raised higher by 25 million bushels and exports were only reduced by 65 million bushels. Although these are bearish changes, they weren’t as bearish as what was anticipated. The true positive aspects were that domestic crush was raised by 10 million bushels, and the U.S. yield was lowered from 49.5 BPA down to 49.1 BPA. Also, the much-watched Brazilian crop was only increased by 2 million MT and the Argentinian crop was reduced by 1 million MT…so net-net S.A. only up 1 million MT. Keep an eye on Chinese demand. There is rumor that USDA agreed with a request from China to impose stricter standards on U.S. soybean shipments to China. The recent run-up in our Canadian dollar has had a negative impact on basis, putting a lid on price hikes. Local soybean bids are $10.00 FOB farm range. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed.
Buyers have come out with new crop small green, large green and red lentil bids. The small greens have been trading with No.1 at 25¢ & No. 2 23¢/lb. Large green lentils No.1 27¢, No.2 24¢, and X3 19¢/lb. New crop reds are trading at No.2 17¢/lb. All these are FOB farm with AOG. We are starting to see sellers looking to move red lentils as some producers are needing meet to financial commitments and others are looking to check bins. Prices are trading at 17.5¢ FOB farm. Markets seem like they will remain flat due to oversea trades remaining quiet and seller pressure starting to increase. Comments out of Crop Production last week was that red supply will be long going into next year, acres will likely decrease and at this point, India is likely to have average crops. Too many unknowns to swing the markets either way at this point. Lots of talk that large green acres will increase due to the higher return compared to reds, small greens acres will likely remain the same or slightly increased due to price as well compared to reds.
Canola futures finished the day only slightly positive. March closed $0.40/MT up at $489.70/MT, with May only $0.10/MT higher $497.10/MT. There were little supportive factors today and conversely, little discouraging factors for the commodity. Despite the Canadian dollar dipping lower earlier in the trading session, it managed to rally back ending higher. A little bit of support came from marginal gains in soybean markets. Bids today continue relatively flat at roughly $10.50/bu FOB farm. This value is taking into consideration an estimated $25/MT basis & freight number. Please call in with any targets you may have or if you’d like to sign up basis contracts.
The feed wheat market has been under a bit of pressure this week with values in certain areas slipping slightly. Bids for feed wheat in good freight areas may still see $5.00/bu picked up on farm, but not as easy of a trade this past week. The milling spring wheat market is currently hovering around $6.65-6.85/bu delivered plant for #1, 13.5 protein in certain areas. Durum has suffered as of late with bids dropping to 7.00-7.75/bu picked up on farm greatly depending on location and quality. Growers still sitting on feed wheat should look at getting some sales on the books as delivery windows will continue to get pushed further out and likely won’t see any price increases for later delivery. Growers with high protein wheat can likely find some premiums to take advantage of and should call the office to discuss details to see if anything is able to be done.
Mustard has been busy after the Crop Production show in Saskatoon last week. New crop contracting, old crop contracting along with seed ordering has been steady this week. Mustard continues to be a strong new crop option, and pencils in very well considering returns this year. There was a lot of interest and inquiries last week at the show. New crop bids remain at 33-35 cents/lb on oriental, 35-36 cents/lb on brown, and 38 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include an Act of God. Spot prices remain fairly strong, with brown trading at 44-46 cents/lb, yellow at 41-42 cents/lb, and oriental at 32-34 cents/lb. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.