Milling wheat values have fallen back with buyer bids in central Sask hovering around $11.40/bu delivered on #1 red spring. Across the southern half of the province, bids are a bit more perky with indications around $11.65/bu and maybe a hair more depending on movement timeline. It’s not all doom and gloom for Canadian wheat though as we may see an uptick once Russia slows their exports, and the EU runs into a smaller exportable surplus around typical Canadian seeding time. On top of these factors, we continue to monitor US red winter wheat weather concerns, which could swing markets. Acres are up, but how many acres are impacted is yet to be seen. So, fingers crossed this all correlates to a bump in local bids. Looking ahead, Canadian new crop red spring acres are set to increase, and new crop bids are garnering interest. Feed wheat bids sit around $10/bu FOB farm, give or take today depending on location.
Chickpea markets keep a firm tone over the last 2 weeks with some buyers unsure why and how we got here. Buyers that have bumped their bids have been very firm on their values; where an offer in other commodities can often prompt a bit of a higher price, the same cannot be said in chickpeas today. Markets have been trading #2 large Kabulis around $0.59-$0.60/lb FOB farm for Feb-April type shipping. Sentiment feels very, “fill and kill,” as the interest is not widespread. New crop values are also something to consider with some buyers at $0.46-$0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Crop rotation and disease have most believing acres will go up in the coming year, so pricing early might be something to consider. If you have bins with product in them, it can’t hurt to get a germ/disease test to see if selling for seed is an option.
Looking at today’s pea markets, yellows are trading at $12.50-13.00/bu delivered plant while greens sit around $13.50 FOB with some strong location dependent bids at $15.00/bu delivered in Sask and $14.00/bu FOB in Alberta for max 3% bleach. We have seen some strong new crop yellow pea programs in SE Sask/Manitoba this week with bids at $12.00-12.50/bu FOB, dependent on movement period with a 15bu/acre Act of God. New crop green bids are quiet, but we do see some limited interest in blocky types – please contact your merchant for details. Spot prices on maple peas sit between $17.00-19.00/bu delivered, location and variety dependent; FOB farm options are available, so call with location. New crop maple programs remain few and far between and we suggest growers use firm targets to try and capture a sale at this point. Lastly, feed peas see bids in the $11.50/bu FOB range today. Looking at both Canadian and world markets, we expect domestic pea acreage to rise to 3.5 million acres, as poor growing conditions limited pea planting in 2022. The planting of India’s rabi crop is ongoing with favourable moisture conditions so far – January will be a critical window for crop development. Finally, China has begun to reopen, and soymeal prices have risen, which creates an opportunity for Chinese feeders to purchase Canadian peas as long as values remain at a discount to soymeal and corn.
Spot market mustard pricing remains very strong, but new crop bids continue to see slippage this week. Buyers indicate they are getting full on new crop bookings, and this is translating into price pressure. Current new crop values are as follows: Yellow is sitting in the $0.80/lb range, brown is down in the $0.70/lb range, and oriental is quoted around $0.83/lb. These new crop prices are subject to change quickly, so please check with us sooner than later. All new crop contracts still carry a 10bu/ac act of God and are quoted as FOB farm. Spot values on all types of mustard sit between $1.20-$1.30/lb FOB farm this week for February to March movement. Growers may see a bit higher value if willing to push movement out and ship March/ April timeline. It is still very important you discuss firm offers with your merchant on product in the bin as we continue to have success with this marketing tool. Selling some mustard into these historically high markets seems to be a solid strategy. Planting seed on all types is still available, including delivery to your farm and treatment options. Sell outs will start occurring, so please let us know if you are looking.
Weak exports of Canadian flax warrant a price decline this week to $17.50/bu range picked up for a Feb/March timeframe. It was no surprise that during flax meetings at the Crop Production show last week, acres were estimated to decrease in 2023. Lower prices and competition from other commodities have growers looking in other directions and even with the decline in acres, there is still expected to be some carry-over. The US has been the dominant buyer of flax over the last year as our values into China and Europe remain uncompetitive. The flax market has no indications that prices will strengthen, so those with flax in the bins, consider pricing some out before we values slip further. New crop bids are not available yet, but we think growers should start throwing out their targets. Russia and Kazakhstan haven’t reported what their acres will look like for 2023 but suspect Canadian prices will once again have some competition.
Barley markets move into early 2023 without much change to value or demand that we saw ending 2022. Old crop feed barley remains a topic of discussion and growers are still catching that $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range throughout Saskatchewan. The further west and closer to feedlot alley you are, the higher the values will be. Delivery windows are still generally attractive, with some buyers starting to push March/April timeframes for a small carry in value. New crop feed contracts remain slow to hit our desk, but buyers seem to be indicating values in the $6.00 – $6.50/bu FOB farm range with earlier movement. We encourage getting a certain percentage on the books with these numbers – not only will this start cash flow, but also clear out some bin space. On the malt side of things, old crop purchasing continues lackluster at best. Maltsters are still poking around to buy some product, but not willing to reach out of their comfort zone to get it. New crop malt bids remain quiet as well, but we have seen some interest from the odd purchaser, please talk to your merchant for details.
Red lentil markets have softened over the last week with prices dropping to as low as 31 cents/lb delivered. There are a few buyers still purchasing small chunks at 33 cents delivered, but those opportunities are few and far between and we suggest growers take advantage while they can. Reds are feeling all kinds of outside pressure: Australian crop is now hitting the market, the Indian crop looks to be in good condition, and values are starting to soften overseas. These factors together make for a nearly perfect storm of price correction domestically and according to one buyer, reds destined for Pakistan already equate to low 30’s in the Canadian pocket. We believe prices will likely remain soft or drop further as we progress into the year and growers should make some sales now if they are under sold. There are a few new crop bids available at this time, but those that are out indicate values around 26-28 cents/lb with an act of God. We are not sure these numbers get much traction when initially looked at, but once you start comparing them to other crop options, they still pencil out at a decent return. Green lentils seem to be telling a different story as prices remain strong for all three varieties. Old crop prices remain in the 50-cent range or higher for both small greens and large greens, while medium greens hover in the 47-48 cent range. French green lentils still trade as high as $1.05/lb and beluga lentils as high 65 cents/lb. New crop green lentils are trading at 40 cents for both small and large varieties with an Act of God, which is getting some attention from growers.
Oat markets remain quiet for another week, which doesn’t come as a much of a surprise anymore. When searching for bid’s we continue to look under every rock and in every nook and cranny as this market is virtually full, and buyers are content to sit on their hands. When you are able to find a bidder, values seem to be quoted around $4.00/bu range for milling quality – not much different than feed. The oat market is sitting a huge supply and it is going take some time work through it so, until then, prices will remain soft. There were some new crop programs posed last week with options to sign $4.50-$5.00/bu delivered plant in Eastern SK. The next few months are likely going to be tough slugging for oats, but if you need to find a home, let us know and we’ll track down some options.
Improved weather forecasts for Argentina have weighed on the market. Couple that with a larger Brazilian soybean crop, and headwinds have begun to push the market back down after a solid surge for the past week. Local market is in the range of $17.00-$17.50/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean production is in line with historical trendline levels; the reduction in planted acres was offset by better yields. South American dry bean markets are offering a glimmer of price appreciation. The Aussie faba growing zones have encountered more than normal annual precipitation. This, in turn, has led to a 30% reduction in forecasted volume and potential quality concerns. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Producer canola deliveries eased up over the last week, but with that said, deliveries to date are 11% above last year’s at this point. It is forecasted that exports will remain strong into China, Mexico, and Japan. Australia is reporting logistics problems due to the large volumes harvested. ABARES is reporting that the Aussie canola crop is at 7.3 million MT, 4% above last year’s record crop. These Aussie logistics issues will likely drive canola importers back to Canada to satisfy some of their needs. Local bids are in the range of $18.00-$18.50 bu picked up.
The canary market has not seen much action in the past few weeks as spot purchases are very hand to mouth, and sellers are lack luster at pushing tonnage up right now. Current prices are 38-39 cents a pound on sound quality product for picked up on farm bids, with the range depending on where your product is located. There has been some interest in new crop acres, and we’ve been locking in at 35-36 cents/lb picked up on farm depending on area. This new crop contract has an act of God clause covering quality and quantity for the first 10 bushels/acre, so it’s a decent option versus deferred delivery contracts that might leave you holding the bag if the worst case happens, and you get wiped out by hail, or something else last minute.
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