Canadian wheat markets are strong again this week and continue to hold their momentum as we near the end of January. As of this morning, feed wheat prices are trading around the $7.00/bu FOB farm mark in many areas of Saskatchewan. Bids will vary pending location, but as you move Southwest, the better the price will be. Milling CWRS is ranging from $7.50 to $7.90/bu delivered for a #1 with 13.5% protein with movement further out. Producers with 12.5% protein can achieve a slightly discounted price, ranging from $7.30 to $7.70/bu delivered. In some cases, looking towards the feed market will net you more on the bottom line. New crop #1 US spec durum, for early 2022 movement, has traded at $8.25/bu-$8.50/bu FOB farm in South Central/Southeast Saskatchewan, while spot purchases are around that $8.50/bu mark in Southeast Sask. as well. Markets are showing strength and we are unsure when this gravy train will derail, so making some hedges to mitigate the downside may be a good option.
Yellow varieties remain the only exciting aspect of the pea market, seeming to bump up little by little each time we write. We now have buyers willing to look at product, in the right location, at $10.00/bu FOB for movement in the next couple months. We’ve also had new crop bids pop up at $9.00/bu delivered into a glyphosate free market and $8.00/bu picked up for a regular #2 market, both with an act of God. Green peas remain subdued with old crop values at $8.50 – $9.00/bu picked up and in light trade. Maple peas continue trading around $10.00/bu picked up in specific locations. Global supplies continue to shrink, which is why yellow peas are holding at such competitive values. We are not expecting much of a change in green peas and they will likely continue trading at levels below yellows, as they are being priced into the feed markets.
Flax prices remain strong and possibly stronger priced out into summer months. At this point, $20.00/bu picked up in the yard will trade for most areas, while new crop is still lingering around $15.00/bu picked up with an act of God. There are some discrepancies in tonnage reports of product that has moved from the Black Sea Region into China. It is possible that these discrepancies are due to delays at the Chinese border from Covid related inspections. However, if the Russian and Kazakh data is correct, then large volumes of flax are moving into China and once the obstructions are clear, their reporting should reflect this as well. Based on data, flax prices shouldn’t be at these record highs and while Canadian prices have edged higher, that momentum has slowed down in other key markets. If there is a response with more acres planted in 2021, then we could see prices coming off their highs sooner than later.
The barley market is a rather interesting one at the moment. The main focus to date is more on the feed side of things than on the malt side. With the availability to get $6.00/bu for feed barley through the months of May – July, this should leave the bins empty come 2021 harvest time. Often, the barley world is a risk vs reward scenario; will it make malt or continue to hold its value in the bin, or should it just be pushed into a feed market and alleviate the risk of trying to maintain it at a malt spec? Given the current demand and pricing on feed, the writing is on the wall. Chances are you can lock up some feed barley around the $5.00/bu for new crop, with really not much news to be spoken of on the malt side of things. Will feed prices go higher? We think it’s safe to say that nobody has that answer to date, but how high does it really need to go to make you a seller in today’s market? We have seen bins being emptied into feed markets in previous years around $4.00/bu FOB, so at the end of the day right now should be a seller’s market for feed. All in all, let’s try to empty those bins now and cross our fingers they’re busting at the seams in a few months with 2021 crop.
Chickpea markets turn to Mexico with earlier than normal seeding reports already out. They are estimating a return to normal levels of acres but there is also talk of dryer than normal weather conditions. Regardless of acres, this is detrimental in the early stages of the crop and is the news to watch for. Looking back and just a reminder, according to StatsCan report on Dec 31/20 there was an estimated 400K MTS of carry for 2021. This is up 21% compared to the previous year. While we are sure this number will move again, it is clear that the supply is ample, and the market is aware of it. Current #2 large Kabuli chickpea values for Mar.-April movement range from $0.25-$0.28/lb FOB farm with freight sensitivity. New crop is still a dull conversation and it is widely believed that the acres will decrease this year, so buyers are not willing to stick their necks out on any kind of significant position. Bids for a #2 quality large Kabuli hover around $0.25/lb FOB farm with an AOG and Sept.-Dec. movement. Finally, last but not least, feed and sample chickpeas are valued at $0.17/lb FOB farm with relatively quick shipment.
Milling oat prices continue to see strength with old crop bids quoted upwards of $4.00/bu picked up on the farm for Spring movement in East Central Sask. As well, new crop pricing continues to remain attractive with pricing above $3.00/bu picked up with movement pushed out. Farm location will have a big say in quoted bids, so reach out to your merchant for price discovery in your area. On the feed side, 40lbs bushel weight continues to capture anywhere from $3.00 – $3.50/bu for quick movement. Over the last couple of days, we’ve started to hear more chatter of producers letting go of oat acres in favour of oilseeds. As well, analysts are reiterating this sentiment as they forecast acres to be reduce upwards of 16%. This will be something to keep an eye on moving forward.
We are seeing a little bit of action in the canaryseed market this week as buyers stick their neck out to grab offers on both old and new crop again. Spot contract bids have clawed their way back to the highs of the year, $0.32/lb FOB farm, for movement in the next couple months. Currently, we see no premium for holding product into Spring/Summer. With that being said, there is no harm in posting a target if these values don’t entice you. We have some buyers looking for new crop as well this week, $0.27/lb FOB farm with act of God has traded. These types of values, after years of $0.20-$0.25/lb, seem like a fairly good starting point for 10bpa to hedge the downside. Also, if you are looking to switch out your seed for new supply, or try a new variety, call our office and speak with a Merchant about options.
After big declines last week, the canola futures market has rebounded in a huge way. Rains in South America had traders fund selling to lock in profits after a steady climb up, causing futures to nosedive. Once the dust settled, March futures touched the daily upward trading limit on both Monday and Tuesday and are once again having a big day today (Wednesday). At time of writing, March futures are at $714/MT, up from $650/MT at the same time last week. Many local buyers are now using May ($677/MT) and July ($651/MT) futures to price as they are bought up in the near term. We are hearing positive basis numbers from April on in some areas. As these markets become more and more volatile, focusing on local basis levels will become increasingly important to finding the top price in your area.
Lentils are having another good week, with old crop pricing up one to two cents on all varieties. Currently, buyers are looking at contracting $0.29-$0.30/lb delivered on reds, $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB on large greens and up to $0.30/lb FOB farm on small greens. For the most part, buyers are willing to entertain delivery in the next couple months. This week we finally saw multiple buyers coming to the table with their new crop programs. Reds are currently priced at $0.26/lb delivered on a DDC and in some cases $0.25/lb FOB with act of God on firm target. Large greens have had a couple of buyers at $0.30/lb for #2 or better quality, FOB farm with an Act of God. Small greens are sitting at $0.25-$0.26/lb with an act of God. These prices are decent starting points for booking next year’s crop. These markets may not be reflecting where the true value lies overseas, but more of a battle for seed acres. This year there are lots of strong prices for the Fall, making seeding intentions a little tougher to finalize. There is a risk that once these acres get filled, the bids could disappear.
Soybean futures are posed for a third straight day of gains after rains in Mato Grosso, Brazil further delayed harvesting activity in the world’s largest soybean producing country. Global supply concerns continue to underpin strength in the market in the short run. Local soybean bids now hover around $14.50-$15.00 bu picked up depending on location. Faba bean export bids remain virtually non-existent due to a return to global trade normal. Production in Australia and parts of Europe are back on track and importers are falling back into previously established buying relationships. Feed faba bids are near $7.00/bu to $7.25/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids continue to slide from early harvest values due to abundant North American supply. We continue to hear reports of new crop seed shortage due to poor germination. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.
It has been another good week concerning mustard prices. Strength remains with all types, on both old crop and new. New crop brown mustard is steady at $0.36 /lb, with contracts being offered for September through July of 2022. Again, show us some offers if you want to try and push for higher, because you never know what could happen with an offer. New crop yellow is sitting at $0.42/lb, while Forge or Vulcan Oriental are as high as $0.32/lb for the same time period. Cutlass is now at $0.30/lb for new crop, which is very strong in comparison to the last couple of years. Spot brown mustard remains hot with bids sitting at $0.37 FOB for prompt movement with the potential for higher on firm offer. Yellow has picked up slightly, with spot bids sitting at $0.41 FOB farm with fairly quick movement as well. Forge Oriental is up at $0.32 for March/April, while Cutlass Oriental has seen some trading done at $0.30 cents FOB for that same window. Please call us to discuss all your new crop and seed options. We have all varieties of seed, either treated with 2 treatments, or un-treated and our prices include delivery to your yard.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.