The wheat market has continued to trade within a similar range over the past two months, with today’s activity extending the strength that began yesterday. Global attention remains focused on Trump and his tariff threats. Some clarity is expected this weekend, as February 1, 2025, has been marked as a potential date for the imposition of tariffs on Canada. Locally, many buyers are hesitant, awaiting further details before committing to purchases. #1 CWRS 13.5% protein continues to be indicated around $8.20/bu delivered, depending on local basis level and shipping timelines. #1 CWAD remains in the $8.00-$8.50 FOB farm range, with some local options at $9.00/bu delivered appearing sporadically. Feed wheat remains strong at $7.00/bu FOB farm, with better pricing available in western SK and into Alberta.

Potential U.S. tariffs are introducing uncertainty into the oat market, given that some buyers export oats to the U.S. However, alternative marketing opportunities remain available, with pricing currently at $4.00-$4.50/bu picked up, provided the oats meet #2 heavy specifications. For lighter oats, merchants can assist in securing FOB pricing, with discounts of $1.00-$2.00/bu depending on quality. New crop values have been slow to materialize, but growers with a target price can consider submitting a firm offer to potential buyers.

Chickpea bids in Canada have dipped from last week, reflecting large supplies both domestically and globally. Old crop values now range from $0.35-$0.37/lb for large kabulis, with potentially higher prices available for high percentages of 9mm sizing. For those generally smaller sized chickpeas, delivery opportunities into Southern Saskatchewan remain at $0.35/lb. New crop remains below historical levels, with indications between $0.32-$0.35/lb FOB farm, varying by buyer and specifications. The looming possibility of U.S. tariffs, combined with the historical reliance on the U.S. as a leading importer of Canadian chickpeas, has made buyers cautious about new crop purchases, particularly for U.S.-grown acres. However, strong exports into the EU and the Middle East for the 2024/25 shipping year may help sustain demand should U.S. tariffs be enacted.

Mustard markets have remained relatively unchanged in recent weeks. Spot prices continue at similar levels, with some transactions occurring on brown mustard at $0.32-$0.33/lb, depending on movement timelines. Yellow mustard is trading at $0.42-$0.44/lb, with price variations based on delivery windows. Oriental mustard remains the quietest market, with spot prices primarily in the $0.30/lb range. However, certain buyers seeking specific varieties have been willing to pay up to $0.32-$0.33/lb for #1 spec on limited loads. If you have oriental mustard on the farm, reach out to your merchant for more details. New crop values remain mostly aligned with current spot prices, as the market has yet to push for increased mustard acreage. If projected acres continue to decline globally, the market may gain renewed attention, potentially improving returns.

Pea prices have remained mostly steady this week. Green peas are holding at approximately $17.00/bu picked up, while yellow peas remain firm at $11.00/bu delivered. For those with maple peas in storage, some buyers are still offering $21.00-$24.00/bu picked up, depending on the variety. New crop maple peas remain strong, ranging from $15.00-$16.00/bu FOB. Reports from India regarding the rabi crop have been inconsistent, making it difficult to assess growing conditions accurately. While early-season rains were abundant, January has been relatively dry. Pea prices in India have declined due to increased yellow pea imports from Canada and Russia, alongside the arrival of Australian desi chickpeas. These lower prices may reduce the likelihood of an extension on India’s zero import tariffs beyond February. The uncertainty surrounding Indian tariffs is creating softer demand for new crop yellow peas, whereas green pea prices are expected to stay firm due to tighter supplies.

The flax market remains largely unchanged from last week. Canadian flax supplies are tight this year, and exports to Europe are expected to increase due to Europe’s higher tariffs on Russian flax. A key question for the Canadian flax market remains: “What happens if the U.S. imposes tariffs?” Expectations had pointed to increased U.S. demand for Canadian flax, but pending tariffs are keeping buyers cautious. Current flax pricing is between $17.00-$18.00/bu picked up, with the higher price available for summer movement. New crop flax values have surfaced around $16.50/bu picked up with Act of God protection.

Barley markets continue to show strength, with bids stabilizing at levels attractive to sellers. Old crop values vary widely based on freight costs and delivery timeframes, ranging from $5.00 to $5.75/bu FOB farm. Proximity to feedlot alley and movement timelines quoted as March forward are key factors influencing bid strength. Nearby delivery slots are mostly filled, but locking in pricing for later movement remains a sound strategy. New crop indications for feed barley are also emerging under deferred delivery contracts (no Act of God), with bids above $5.00/bu available in many regions. On the malt side, the market remains stagnant, with both new and old crop bids difficult to secure. Growers are encouraged to provide quality specifications to maltsters in advance, positioning themselves ahead of any potential demand shifts.

Canaryseed prices are flat, but trades have been steady. Current pricing sits as high as $0.31/lb picked up in the yard for reasonable movement timelines. On the new crop side, sales have been steady at $0.30/lb picked up on the farm with an Act of God clause. Booking 10 bu/acre at this stage appears to be a solid strategy. Canary seed has been an attractive option for those looking to diversify acres from other cereals. If you are considering a seed variety change, reach out to discuss the benefits of switching varieties rather than cleaning your own seed.

Dryness in Argentina may provide short-term price support if the weather pattern extends into February. Some Brazilian consultants have reduced their soybean production forecast by 500,000 MT to 171 MMT. Despite this reduction, it would still mark a record crop for Brazil. Domestically, soybean prices are currently ranging from $10.75-$11.00 FOB farm. In Argentina, unfavorable growing conditions have adversely affected dry bean production, while demand for dry beans in Mexico appears to be increasing. Larger classes of dry beans are being sold for about $0.50-$0.60/lb delivered, whereas smaller specialty classes are priced between $0.55-$0.60/lb delivered. On the export side, interest in faba beans remains low, with export bids around $9.00/bu FOB farm, while feed quality faba beans are priced at approximately $8.00/bu FOB farm.

The Canadian canola market for the upcoming year is marked by some key challenges and shifts. With Canadian crush running 7% ahead of last year as per StatsCan, there’s strong demand, but that comes alongside a significant projected decline in carry-out. Expectations suggest a drop to 1.25 Mt from 2.75 Mt in 2023-24, signaling tighter supplies moving into 2025-26. The decrease in acreage forecasted by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) is of interest as well. It reflects rising input costs and lower canola prices, which are pressuring farmers. Weather conditions like low late-fall soil moisture and a potential uptick in wheat prices are contributing to this trend. The broader global picture—falling world consumption, a projected decline in world ending stocks, and factors like Chinese buying strength—could all play pivotal roles in shaping the market. These factors, along with potential policy changes in the U.S. and weather impacts in major producing countries like Brazil and Argentina, add further complexity to the outlook. At the time of writing, the market sits a little lighter with March futures at $636/MT, a slight uptick from last week.

Lentil markets softened this week, with red lentils holding firmer than greens. Looming uncertainty over potential upcoming tariffs has buyers willing to sit on the sidelines for the moment. Large green lentils are topping out at 58 cents/lb picked up, with 60 cents proving hard to find now at this stage. New crop values have slipped slightly, trading at 47 cents FOB farm with an Act of God. Small greens remain in the low to mid 50 cent/lb range FOB farm, while new crop traction in the 43-44 cent range has faded over the past 24 hours. Green lentil prices may be softening due to increased seeded acres and weaker overseas prices, while reds appear more stable due to a smaller Australian crop, lower Canadian stocks, and potentially fewer seeded acres in India.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.