Peas markets have been quiet this week. We haven’t seen many price changes as yellows maintain a value of $6.50/bu picked up and greens hover around $8.50/bu delivered. Yellow pea movement just keeps getting pushed back, with no fluctuation in price levels. There is currently a spot opportunity on yellow peas for those in Eastern Saskatchewan at $6.75/bu picked up for May/ June delivery. For new crop yellows, $7/bu FOB farm is being bid for those in the far SE corner of Sask. This contract includes an Act of God. As for the overseas markets, it is still too early to tell if the lack of Indian moisture will affect yield. However, as mentioned last week, increased acres might offset any yield decreases. Therefore, betting that India will have supply issues may be risky. Green peas have more options for end user destinations than yellows, so there may still be hope for pricing to firm up.
Flax bids have softened over the last month despite data that advocated tight Canadian supplies. #1 quality is $11.75/bu delivered, while milling quality is indicated at $12.00/bu picked up in the yard, but for a pushed-out movement into June. These lower prices could suggest that flax supplies are larger than originally reported, or there could just be a temporary dip between export shipments. The latest data from the Black Sea region shows sizable flax exports in November. However, the volumes are lower than a year ago. We can compare 417,000 tonnes so far (July-Nov) versus 471,000 tonnes a year earlier. The slower pace in exports could be from disruptions with Turkish trade as per some analysts. There will be a StatsCan release next week and stocks on farm could drop, even though the prices are not reflecting low supplies. The potential of downside prices is likely limited with farmer selling and there is a possibility of some seasonal gains later in 2018.
Soybean futures have been on a bit of a run lately, fueled by South American weather reports. Southern Brazil is reporting cloudy wet weather, which is pulling yield prospects down, while it is hot and dry in central Argentina. Chicago soybeans futures broke $10.00/bu and have since experienced a little resistance; now trading $9.92/bu on the nearby and $10.12/bu for deferred positions. As it relates to global demand, we always start with China first. Chinese soybean buyers have had to look to U.S. sources for nearby shipping given the late Brazilian harvest (~5% complete) coupled with the increase in value of the Brazilian Real. From a short-term perspective, this should also prop up U.S. futures values. Local soybean bids are a little over $10.00 FOB farm range depending on location. Local faba bean bids are in the $5.75/bu range for feed.
Wheat values have seen a slight increase over the last week or so. We have seen a rally in Kansas wheat futures likely due to dryness concerns the southern US Plains. This has resulted in rising winter wheat futures. Growers shouldn’t get bullish on wheat due to this weather event yet, as it is early and things can change quickly, but this may bring some selling opportunities for low protein high quality wheat that many growers are sitting on. Growers should keep an eye on the market and take advantage of opportunities that may arise. Spring wheat with 13.5% pro is currently trading at $6.70-6.85/bu delivered plant in some areas depending on movement window. Durum values, for the most part, are unchanged this past week, with best values being in the southeastern area of the province trading at $7.70/bu picked up on farm for April/May. New crop durum can also be hedged in these areas at similar values for Sept/Dec movement based on #1 US spec. Feed wheat values have held firm to slightly higher this past week with more demand being seen. Values have traded in the $5.00-5.15/bu range picked up on farm depending on location and movement. This is a good opportunity to get more product on the books and increase feed wheat sales.
Canaryseed this week is once again flat. We are seeing a few more buyers come to the table looking for product, but nothing better for values. With lots of other birdseed prices flat as well, we will likely see values remain unchanged until the opening of the Thunder Bay shipping season. That being said, 20c/lb FOB farm is still tradeable in certain areas. Offers are a great way to catch a high especially in a flat market. Price bumps can happen for a short time so having your offer out there is a good idea. Talk to your merchant on any targets.
Feed barley this week is fairly quiet. Tomorrow marks the first day of February, which means road bans are quickly approaching. If you are looking to move some feed barley before those secondary weights come into play, it might be a good idea to lock up some product as buyers are starting to get full for quicker movement. If you can load primary weights in road ban season, you may be able to find a premium in the market. Today’s prices are around $3.75 for quicker movement, and up to $4.00/bu in April/May for certain areas. Malt barley has been flat, but talk with your merchant about posting an offer.
Mustard continues trading this week on new crop and old, but the market has cooled since December because of acreage projections. The one exception remains; the very strong spot brown mustard. Spot brown is trading at 44-46 cents/lb depending on movement, yellow down to 36 cents/lb, and oriental around 31 cents/lb depending on variety. All the spot prices are picked up in your yard and can be moved fairly quickly in certain cases. Mustard still continues to be a strong new crop option as well and pencils in great considering returns this year and acres being booked. New crop bids are stable this week and are being bid around 32 cents/lb on oriental, 34 cents/lb on brown, and about 35 cents/lb on yellow. All new crop contracts are picked up in your yard and include a full Act of God clause. If you are looking for any seed, we have certified yellow and oriental, with some common brown available at very good values with convenient delivery to your yard. This seed can also be treated with a dual treatment. Call your merchant for more details.
With a heavily supplied market and low demand, oats continue to maintain a sideways trend that we have all become so used to over the past couple of months. For good quality #2 CW oats, prices sit right around the $2.50/bu mark picked up in your yard. Very little signs of life lately give no reason to expect any significant changes in the near future. Feed oats continue to have a wide trading range depending on your location, as well as quality. Heavy and dry feed oats will likely be between $2.00-$2.30/bu in your yard. As always, the closer you get to Manitoba the better the prices tend be. If you have any questions or a firm target price in mind be sure to let your merchant know as offers can be a strong way to make your values known to our buyers.
Canola had a negative day posting small losses of $1.60-2.30/MT across the board. The slightly heavier losses were seen in the pushed out future months, with smaller losses taking place in the nearby. March finished the day at $496.70/MT with May still slightly over $500/MT. Loss factors included spillover from weaker soy markets and a stronger Canadian dollar, which is still tracking over $0.81 compared to the USD. Basis levels remain unchanged for another week, ranging from $0-12/MT under depending on delivery period. As an example, July delivery in Northwest Saskatchewan is now posting a $0/MT basis, which pegs the dollar per bushel value at $11.26 delivered in.
Lentils have had another quiet week trading. Reds range between 17-18 cents/lb, while large greens trade near 29 cents for a number 2 and $0.30 or slightly higher for X2 or better grade. Target pricing seems to be the best way of trading any colour of lentil as of late. With unstable markets, this gives you the best chance to trade your grain. The next big news on lentils comes when StatsCan releases their stock estimates for December 31, which is due to come out next week. Exported stocks will be down compared to last year, therefore an increase will be seen in carry out inventories. As we hit the last half of this crop year, shipping usually becomes slower. This is due to India’s crop hitting the market within the next couple of months. This makes waiting for local stocks to disappear a moot point as India’s production should more than fill their needs. For those who are waiting for price recovery, don’t hold your breath as price will likely remain similar or lower than today’s pricing as more grain will come to market at a time when shipping is usually slower.
The chickpea market is still penciling in as the most attractive new crop option next year for those with the right growing conditions/area (heat and soil). New crop prices remain saleable at 38 cents a pound picked up at the yard including an Act of God on #2 quality. Based on an average crop, this works out to a nice return on investment, which is more than can be said for a lot of crops this year. Seed supplies seem to be getting pretty tight on large kabulis around the country, so if you are on the fence and still debating whether or not you want to get into them, the decision may be made for you before long. Spot prices are tough to find on kabulis as product is obviously very limited and buyers have turned their attention elsewhere. That being said, the mid sixties are a tradable number if you still have unsold product in the bin.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.