The soybean market is focused on Friday’s USDA report for potential direction. The report is expected to show a slight reduction in U.S. 2024 soybean production. In South America, the USDA is likely to increase Brazil’s soybean crop estimate while trimming Argentina’s. The net result is anticipated to be a 1 MMT increase in overall production. Domestically, soybean prices fluctuate between $10.50 and $11.00 per bushel FOB farm. Argentina’s adverse growing conditions have negatively impacted dry bean production, while demand for dry beans in Mexico is strengthening. Larger classes are selling for approximately 45¢ to 50¢/lb delivered, while smaller specialty classes are priced between 55¢ and 60¢/lb delivered. Export interest in faba beans remains limited, with export bids at $9.00 per bushel FOB farm. Feed-quality faba beans are priced slightly lower, at around $8.00 per bushel FOB farm.

Flax markets are showing strength in the first week of the new year, with prices ranging from $17.00 to $18.00 per bushel picked up, depending on movement timeline, with the higher prices for spring delivery. Tight Canadian supplies are helping support bids, despite competition from Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Russia. The 10% tariff on Russian flax hasn’t significantly impacted trade flows. In November, Russia was the leading supplier of flax to China, and analysts expect stronger Chinese demand in the coming months to fill warehouses, which could support pricing. For yellow flax, prices remain strong at $22.00 per bushel FOB on old crop with new crop sporadically trading at $20/bu with an AOG.

Barley values remain steady as we transition into 2025. Old crop feed prices still range from $4.75 to $5.25/bu FOB farm in Saskatchewan with strong values seen in Alberta. As always, bids are contingent on freight area, with bids strengthening closer to feedlot alley. While these prices haven’t increased in some time, they’ve also avoided significant declines, suggesting some stability in the market. Bids may not be overly deep, but buyer interest persists. This week, new crop feed barley values have started to surface, with FOB farm prices ranging from $5.00 to $5.25/bu on a DDC contract (no AOG). As always, pricing is highly area specific. On the malt side, the situation remains unchanged. While no specific pricing has been released, maltsters have indicated they will have some demand to fill in the later months of this marketing year. The key question remains: when will they begin actively purchasing? Having specs readily available could help producers take advantage of opportunities when they arise.

The pea market continues to hold steady as we enter the new year. India has extended its zero tariff policy on pea imports into February, but given India’s low domestic prices and large prior purchases from Canada and Russia, this extension is unlikely to significantly impact Canadian prices. Old crop yellow peas are priced at $10.25–$10.75/bu picked up, with firm offers at $11.00/bu potentially attracting some interest if freight aligns. Green peas remain strong at $16.50–$17.00/bu picked up, supported by export opportunities beyond China and India. Supplies in Canada and the U.S. are tightening. New crop green peas are starting to show pricing at $12.00–$13.00/bu picked up with an act of God. Current maple pea prices range from $19.00 to $24.00/bu picked up, depending on variety. New crop bids are emerging at $15.50–$16.00/bu picked up including AOG.

Late December and early January have brought some positive momentum to the canola market, with both futures and, in many cases, local basis levels improving. March futures are currently sitting at $625/MT, up from the late December low of $592/MT. Reports of some local crushers offering a zero basis from March through July have caught the attention of growers looking for optimistic signals. Delivered bids into domestic crush are now exceeding $14/bu, which has likely triggered some sales. Additionally, FOB farm bids are available—reach out to us for pricing picked up directly from your yard.

Canaryseed prices remain at levels similar to those before Christmas, with bids fluctuating day-to-day as the market remains largely hand-to-mouth. Despite some volatility, sales have been consistent, with growers keeping the market supplied. StatsCan and other reports suggest a decrease in seeded acres for canaryseed this year, but this may not significantly impact prices, as projected carryout appears sufficient. While canary seed has historically seen small price rallies during the marketing year, the steady pace of sales this year might limit such movements. For new crop, interest at the 30¢/lb FOB farm range with an act-of-God clause has been a selling point for growers looking to start their marketing plans for the next crop year.

The New Year has brought little change to oat prices, which remain steady at around $4.00/bu picked up on the farm ($4.50/bu delivered to a few locations) for dry, heavy milling product. Lighter oats may see price indications drop by a dollar or two, with minimal buyer interest. The market continues to trend sideways as we move into January, with no signs of a significant price increase at this time. Many growers are holding firm on their inventory, whether stored in bins or bags. However, for those storing oats in bags, keeping an eye on potential wildlife activity, such as deer looking for an easy meal, will become increasingly important. Growers looking to offload some of their production are encouraged to try firm targets if these values aren’t quite attractive enough to make a sale.

Wheat markets show futures in the red at the time of writing this morning. Analysts have suggested that the 2024/25 international wheat market will be shaped by weak currencies and affordability concerns, leading buyers to adopt a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. For Canadian wheat exports, non-durum wheat is tracking in line with last year’s pace, however, durum exports have surged 79% year-over-year, reaching 2.3 million metric tonnes. A major factor driving this increased pace is Turkey’s extension of its durum export ban, now set to remain in place until May 31, 2025. Locally, feed wheat prices range between $6.50 and $7.00/bu FOB farm, depending on location, class, and quality. New crop opportunities for winter wheat producers in southeastern Saskatchewan may allow growers to lock in at $6.50/bu FOB farm, subject to freight confirmation. Durum values are largely holding steady at around $8.50/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plants, with various shipping options available, though extreme SE producers may have opportunities closer to $9.00/bu FOB for spring/summer shipping. For pricing on other wheat classes, reach out to your merchant for more information.

The lentil market has seen little change in value despite trade activity picking up slightly following the holiday season. Demand remains slow to steady across all lentil types, with large and small greens attracting the most interest. Red lentils are holding steady, though buyer enthusiasm for new crop bookings remains subdued, with only a few releasing prices for the upcoming year at this stage. Old crop No. 2 large green lentils are trading between 57-60 cents per pound, depending on the movement timeframe, while No. 1 large greens may reach 61-62 cents per pound in the right location. Old crop No. 1 small green lentils are trading at 53-54 cents per pound, though targets at 55 on larger tonnage may attract some attention. No. 2 CAN spec medium greens are trading at 36-38 cents per pound USD FOB farm in northern MT. For old crop red lentils, values are holding at 34-35 cents per pound picked up in light trade. New crop bids, which are FOB farm with act of God, include large green lentils at 47 cents per pound for No. 2 quality, small green lentils at 44 cents per pound, and medium green lentils between 28-30 cents per pound USD depending on location. Red lentil new crop pricing remains quiet, though offers at 31-32 cents per pound may trigger interest.

The mustard market has started the year quietly, as expected. The coming weeks, including the Crop Production Show in Saskatoon, should provide greater clarity on buyer sentiment and upcoming market dynamics. Key factors, such as uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, shifting government policies, and the potential for resolution in the Ukrainian conflict, continue to cast a shadow over the market. Prices remain steady for now, with yellow mustard sitting at 42-44 cents per pound FOB, though offers at 45 cents FOB may trade. Brown mustard is priced at 31-33 cents per pound FOB, and oriental mustard is at 30-32 cents per pound picked up. New crop pricing is expected to roll out soon. Contact your Rayglen merchant for updates and details on seed availability delivered to your yard.

Canadian chickpea production is estimated at 287,000 tonnes for 2024, according to StatsCan. This figure is down from 327,000 tonnes last year but still represents a 52% increase over the 2023 crop. In October, Canadian chickpea exports totaled 12,500 tonnes, which aligns with the five-year average but falls short of last year’s strong export pace. In Mexico, planting progress has been slower than usual, potentially leading to reduced acreage for the 2025 harvest. Meanwhile, other bullish factors for chickpeas include quality issues in Russia that may impact their export capacity and India’s steady import demand. Despite these factors, market values remain relatively unchanged. Old crop bids are holding around $0.40–0.41/lb FOB farm, while new crop pricing has yet to emerge. With the annual Crop Production Show set to take place in Saskatoon next week, there is hope for greater clarity on this market and the outlook for production values.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.