The pea market hasn’t seen much change over the last couple of weeks. We are experiencing weaker bids, due to seasonal behavior, as old crop prices are moving closer to new crop values. Yellow peas are seeing bids around $6.25 with $6.50/bu popping up here and there. However, we do still have the protein market option for yellow peas. If your dry matter protein comes back at 24% we have $7.25/bu picked up. Green peas are trading closer to the $8.50/bu levels. Looking to the 2018-2019 marketing year – yield is going to play an important role as usual. At the moment, overseas buyers aren’t overly keen on new crop product. However, there is going to be a smaller European & Black Sea crop – which could provide some support later on in the year.
It has been very quiet on the oats side of things this past week, with oat prices sitting around $2.30/bu FOB the farm on a good #2 quality. Feed oats have been trading around $2.15/bu picked up on farm. There are some new crop oat prices sitting around $3.00 delivered on the east side of the province. The prices have not rebounded even with a decrease in acres reportedly being down from last year. We will see what prices have in store for the fall.
Flax prices are sideways to lower this week, with bids on old crop at $12.75/bu delivered. New crop brown flax is flat, around $12.00/bu picked up. The yellow flax market has been very quiet, with very few interested buyers at this time. With fewer estimated acres planted, yield will be a determining factor for supply outlook. Various crop reports are rating average to good. European prices have been on a sideways trend. There are still some reports of herbicide residue issues in Russian flax, this could limit some available supplies. Lower new crop supplies could keep prices supported, but we may not see any strength in the prices immediately.
Mustard prices remain sideways, even after the latest StatsCan report. This is likely due in part to mustard having some low overall ratings as far as growing conditions go. New crop prices on yellow are still 34-35 cents, 30 cents on brown mustard and oriental at 27 cents/lb. All of these prices are picked up, and still with an act of God. Brown mustard acres have more than doubled from last year as per the StatsCan report, so locking some acres in is still not a bad idea. If the crop does rebound from recent rains and yield is average to slightly below, carry out would be significant.
Feed barley this week is starting to soften a bit. As we get closer to harvest buyers are waiting for the rush of new crop supply to come, so they are not bidding to aggressively anymore. We have been hearing that there is a good crop of feed barley out there this year so that may affect price even more when harvest starts and the numbers start to come in. Feed barley prices right now are $4-4.20/bu FOB farm for July movement, but don’t wait too long because July is almost over and then we are into new crop prices, which are $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to show buyers what price you are looking for so make sure you are talking to your merchant on those.
Lentils are still having a tough time; market pressure just keeps pushing prices down on all varieties. Lentil markets will likely not get better in the near future, as supply is not a worry. The trader doesn’t want to be caught long inventory if market continues to slide. Markets may respond positively after harvest if yield is well below average, but at this point there no major weather concerns that are worrying buyers. The lentil markets look like they could be in low to mid teens for some time, while large greens likely range between the mid to high teens and small greens in the same range.
Canary seed is stable once again this week with no real change in price. New crop canary is trading between 20-21 cents picked up on farm. Old crop is trading at 21.5 FOB farm. There doesn’t seem to be a lot demand for canary at this point and we are seeing this reflect in the market prices. Buyers seem to be content with just buying product as they need it. For the last month or so we have had only a couple of buyers really interested in purchasing product, so that just show us that the interest from the trade is limited. Market will remain quiet until fall.
Soybean market conditions and price outlook remain much the same since the onset of rising trade tensions. Futures still hovering near 10 yr lows and a USDA WASDE report due tomorrow with the expectation of reduced exports. Canadian soybean growers are largely suffering the same fate as our US counterparts as China turns its purchasing towards Brazil. That being said, Brazil can’t solely serve the import requirements of China and its expected that at some time China will have to turn towards US origin soybeans. It has been reported that China may buy US beans indirectly through another nation. Chinese government has also said it will compensate domestic soybean importers to offset the tariff if they are replenishing national stock piles. Spot soybean bids have slid and now hover in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location. Dry edible bean crop across North America is generally in pretty good shape. Total seeded area of dry edible bean crops in Canada and the US will be down significantly from last year, reflecting a sharp drop in seeded area from 2.52 to 2.18 million acres. As an indication, local great northern beans have recently traded near 36 cents/lb picked up and cranberry bean bids are hovering near 53 cents picked up.
Canola markets softened quite drastically today on trade tensions around the world. This had many traders gearing towards selling the commodity off to void risk. November futures lost $8.50/MT to settle at $494/MT while January dropped $8.00/MT, closing at an even $500/MT. Basis levels are a mixed bag this week as some buyers have widened (suggested they do not want to purchase much canola) and others shortened (remaining aggressively positioned to purchase). If you have canola left in the bin, please call with your location for a firm bid FOB farm or to put in your sales target.
Chickpeas have remained stable on the old crop side as there are next to zero left on farm. After the StatsCan report we saw a few new crop contracts sent out, which put some downward pressure on new crop bids. Moving forward our top new crop contracts still available are at $0.28/lb for 9/10 mm and $0.23/lb for 7/8 mm sizes. Both of these prices are based on a #2 quality and the sample grade price is $0.13/lb. This bid is delivered to plant in Moose Jaw, SK. We always have bids popping up with different pricing and sizing requirements so if you are looking to sign up 10 bu/ac with an AOG give us a call and we can get to work finding a bid that works for you. With acres up and crops looking, for the most part, strong around the province, signing a few up may be a good idea.
The local feed wheat market has been relatively quiet for the past couple weeks after taking a bit of a hit recently. Prices remain around $5.50 a bushel at the farmgate, in most areas of the province, with some areas showing a bit of a freight premium. Fall pricing on feed wheat is weaker than the current crop as the feeders are of the mentality that the crop looks ok enough for the time being and additionally the corn market has been weak comparatively. New crop durum prices are floating around in a few areas (i.e. southern Sask) at $7 picked up for movement usually pushed into early 2019. If you have interest in the durum market for new crop you can find additional details by calling your merchant.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.