Canaryseed markets haven’t changed much over the last week, with old crop product still being bid at 44 cents/lb and new crop quoted around 39 cents/lb FOB farm with act of God. As we get closer to new crop hitting the bin, the gap in market value is expected to merge, meaning growers may want to consider making final sales. Crop conditions have been rated as mostly favourable at this point, but it looks like we will see a week of hot, dry weather throughout the prairies; time will tell how this affects the coming crop. U.S. millet acres are down 8% compared to last year yet are still historically high overall. The Colorado region is the biggest producing area of millet in the U.S., meaning crop conditions in that area are something to keep an eye on. Canary growers have higher expectations as far as pricing goes, so we suspect that the floor price should remain supported.
Flax pricing is sideways this week, with old crop bid at $30.00/bu picked up and new crop indicated around $28.00/bu picked up with act of God. These bids don’t run deep, with a common theme being buyers purchasing limited tonnage and dropping bids. Growing conditions on flax from Sask Ag shows the crop rate at 68% good to excellent, up compared to last year with moisture conditions being more favourable. With tight carry-over going into the 2022-2023 season, prices are likely to remain firm, however, for prices to compete with the European market, we may see slight adjustments.
Continued stability and in some cases strength for chickpeas this week, with lots of talk about late harvest and potential quality issues. Despite this, StatsCan has reported 65% of the chickpea crop as slightly better than average. There is skepticism around those numbers as buyers continue to watch weather and get reports from growers with boots on the ground. Old crop bids have seen some action in limited areas with bids once again quoted around $0.50/lb or better delivered in. New crop ranges from $0.44/lb to $0.50/lb FOB farm with AOG, but extremely freight sensitive to the West for the higher end of the spectrum. It seems the buy side does not want to put a pin on anything with too much depth and are asking the market for targets. Sample and feed values hover in and around $0.30/lb and there are always homes with relatively quick shipping.
Mustard prices have been weaker in recent weeks as rain improved crop conditions, and the StatsCan seeded acreage report seriously bumped up its numbers, suggesting an 80% increase year over year. This has obviously taken some wind out of the sails (sales?) for buyer bids for this fall. Mustard crop conditions are not outstanding, but they are alright, and considerably better than last year. So with the increased acres, some of the pressure comes off. That being said, we are still miles away from harvest with a hot, dry stretch forecasted, so we will see what things look like in a few weeks’ time. Current bids put new crop yellow at 96 cents, new crop brown at 90 cents and new crop oriental at 88 cents/lb as picked up on farm pricing including an act of God. If you have mustard in the bin, the prices are still HUGE at 190 cents on brown, 140 cents on yellow and a buck on oriental, so you should probably just rip that band-aid off and sell.
Barley continues to take a bit of a hit over the last little while here, which does not come as much of a surprise, given the time of year and recent showers throughout the prairies. New and old crop feed barley are triggering in that $6.75 – $7.25/bu FOB farm depending on area and time frame of delivery. Not many prices are currently being thrown around for old crop malt, which falls right in line as to what we normally see at this time of year. New crop malt, however, likely once again catches a premium price to feed, so if you have something you are looking to lock in, we suggest calling in to learn about your options. There is some expected heat throughout the prairies over the next couple of weeks, but with the late rains, barley should have a chance at pulling through relatively unscathed. Not to sound like a broken record, but we would still highly suggest getting a certain percentage locked in for fall to ensure some cash flow as well as some earlier movement.
Oat markets remain pretty quiet as buyers are full for the 3rd quarter of the year but looking to book new crop. This year feels like there are less growers committing acres for the coming harvest as so many were caught last year with no AOG. While some buyers are willing to offer a roll to the following crop year in case of a wreck, growers are still not getting in line. Buyers are advising higher demand as consumers find more uses for oats and a bit of concern over late seeding. It is still early and possible fluctuations for new crop are real. Milling/ #2 CW Old crop values hover around $5/bu FOB farm and $6/bu delivered into plants with very little demand. New crop is similar value with a slight carry of $0.25/bu for Nov-Dec and additional $0.25/bu for Jan-March 2023.
Canola markets are relatively unchanged this morning, at time of writing, after seeing significant losses yesterday. Weakness in soyoil continues to be the driving factor to the losses, which are spilling over into canola futures. European rapeseed markets have also decreased, but soybean and soymeal markets are firming up, which is providing some support. In other unsupportive news, the BOC unexpectedly increased interest rates, which in turn, has boosted the value of our Canadian dollar, making canola more expensive to purchase on the world stage. Currently, November futures sit just under $832/MT while January 2023 shows only a small carry of about $9/MT. Old crop local basis levels hover around $10/MT under to $20/MT over pending location and delivery window, putting old crop bids at $18.50-$19.25/bu delivered plant. New crop basis levels sit around $20-$35/MT under pending location and shipment window, putting bids close to $18.00-$18.50 delivered.
Soybeans are showing moderate gains after a big step-down post recent USDA report. At this point the USDA is sticking with an 87.5M historically high soybean planted acreage and a 51.4 bu/ac yield forecast. If this comes to fruition, it will supply one of the biggest recent harvests at 4.5B bushels. With hot & dry conditions forecast across the Midwest, the risk to crop development still exists. Soybeans face a greater risk from such weather in August, thus mitigating some of the soybean concerns for now. Local bids are location dependent and range from $18.00-$18.25/bu FOB farm. Canadian dry bean planted acres are reported to be just under 300k, which is a 32% drop year over year. Reduced planted acres, a smaller 2021 crop and measured farmer selling are expected to be supportive factors for dry bean prices. Global faba production prospects appear favourable at this point. Australia faba production is still on track to exceed their 10yr average. Domestic prices continue to take direction from the pea market. New crop faba bids showing up around $13.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $11-$12/bu FOB farm.
Global harvest pressure is creating headwinds for wheat prices. Recent USDA forecasts were a wet blanket for the market, pushing futures back down again. Global wheat production was trimmed on account of production reductions from EU and the Ukraine. Russia and Canada were the two notable increases that somewhat off-set the expected tighter year over year global wheat stocks. Local milling wheat bids currently hover near $11.00-12.00/bu delivered, location dependent and feed wheat bids are in the range of $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up.
New crop lentil markets continue to slip as crop conditions improve across the province and markets wait for the arrival of harvest. Old crop prices are following suit with some buyers actually going to no bid this week. Buyers, however, are still on the hunt for old crop small green lentils. For new crop, buyers are mostly looking to get a little more coverage on LGL and SGL. July is typically a slower time for sales and this year is no different. If you are looking to move the last bit of product that is in the bin, make sure to give the office a call as the prices seem to be all over the place right now and changing by the minute. Staying on top of these markets is difficult, so keep in touch for up-to-date information.
The green pea market is hit and miss with a wide range in bids. Not many buyers are interested at the moment, but there have been a couple small tonnage programs of $14.00/bu delivered, or better, for a specific quality of green pea. For a standard #2 green pea, average bids are likely around the $13.00-$13.50/bu mark today. There have been very little new crop green pea sales put on the books this year as both buyers and sellers aren’t eager to get much done at this point. Buyers believe there is enough carry over and with a decent looking crop in the field, they see no cause for concern. Sellers are just the opposite, hoping to see green peas pop in value, although this seems unlikely given the lackluster market, we’ve seen all year. Finding bids for yellow peas is getting tougher as well this week as buyers fill their needs for the next few months and/or are happy to wait until new crop becomes available. New crop bids on yellows have also slowed down, but there are still buyers willing to purchase the odd lot. With markets changing as quick as they are, it is best to call your merchant for up-to-date pricing in your area.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.