US soybeans face lost acres and lower yields that could make for an interesting market. As we write on Wednesday, futures start the day off relatively unchanged. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Faba new crop buyers assessing actual seeded acres and international demand. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Old crop dry bean bids have held reasonably firm with selling opportunities across a few local buyers.
The feed wheat price has been slowly creeping downwards as rain and time work against spot bids. Prices in Saskatchewan now hover between $5.50 to $6.00 FOB depending on location, with better bids seen in the SW. We suspect it won’t be long before new and old crop bids merge. What value? Tough to say, but likely in and around $5.00/bu, so moving what you’ve got left in the bin may be a good play. Durum wheat has been trading around $7.00 /bu delivered to plant for further out movement. Milling wheat has edged a little higher and is posted around $6.40 delivered to plant with a minimum 13.5% protein. New crop feed prices are still sitting around that $5.00/bu range for Sept/Dec movement. Analysts have said that spraying for disease and weeds this year is going to be a bit harder because of variance in crop conditions and staging. HVK this year in wheat could become a huge downgrading factor.
Barely prices are seeing a drop this week. New crop is looking good throughout the province, with the exception of some areas that were a bit late in receiving rain. Reports that earlier seeded crops are struggling a bit more than the later seeded crops continue to roll in. As of right now July is full, and August bids are sitting around $4.25-4.60/bu FOB farm. New crop bids are thin, and buyers are not as aggressive as they once were since the new crop will be coming off relatively soon. Bids on new crop are $4.25-4.50 FOB with act of God depending on movement period. Even with the corn acres being down and prices on corn through the roof, that isn’t really affecting our barley market just for the simple fact that the barley crops look good, acres are up and feedlots at this point are not too worried about supply. Nothing is in the bin at this point, so a lot can change.
Chickpeas are still in the conversation every week, but very little activity. There has been chatter about disease in SE Sask due to the sudden abundance of rain, but it seems as though it may be isolated. Thus far, it has not affected the mind set of the buyer or firmed up bids. General thoughts are that the market will remain as it is while trade eats through carry from last year and works out what this year’s quality of production will be. Old crop bids range from $0.23-$0.25/lb July-Aug movement and new crop is at $0.23-$0.24/lb FB farm with an AOG. It is not uncommon for the two values to reach parity by end of July. Desi chickpeas are still moot. We have heard indications at $0.20/lb FOB farm for new crop, but there are no outlets for the Canadian trade right now and exporters are still looking for homes for their 2018 supply.
Canaryseed is showing potential this week as buyers have come to the table asking to see firm targets above the market for high quality product. Despite decent moisture and crop conditions improving across the province, there are still expectations that we may run into a low supply of canaryseed, which is keeping prices from falling. With that being said, we are looking for old crop targets at 25 cents/lb FOB farm based on Mexico quality (low inseparables). Sound quality old crop canaryseed is still trading at 24 cents/lb FOB farm in most locations. For new crop, we are seeing trades at 23 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG and movement between September-December.
Lentil bids vary from buyer to buyer this week, with some stable and others pulling back their bids. This week the Rayglen staff has been getting a surprising amount of inquiries on small green lentils as well as medium green lentils. Red lentils and large green lentils have been quieter this week in trade, but still a few hitting the market. Small greens have slipped to 17 cents CAD FOB farm for a number #1; Medium greens #1- 18 cents CAD or 14 cents USD; large greens #1- 24 cents CAD, #2 22 cents CAD and Red lentils have been trading 18 cents FOB farm CAD. As the lentil crops improve across the province, buyers are becoming more optimistic that yield will cover contract obligations, and as harvest nears watch new and old crop prices converge. Still time to lock up old crop to free up bin space on old crop and still a few new crop contracts left with an Act of God.
The mustard market remains quiet at attractive levels for brown and yellow. Current bids show 36 cents available on #1 yellow mustard for both old crop and new crop as a picked up on farm price. Brown prices are still hovering around 30 cents on old and new crop with the occasional target on old crop at 31 cents getting triggered in recent weeks. Oriental prices remain the dog of the mustard market with old crop prices at 23 to 23.5 cents picked up and to say buyer interest is minimal would be an understatement. We do have some new crop prices on oriental at a more attractive level into the 26-cent range depending on variety you have in the field. Like most other crops the rainfall across western Canada in the past few weeks has perked up the conditions of the mustard crop in many areas, but we are still at this time expecting a below average yield.
The oat market has remained ‘steady Eddie’ from last week into this. We still see strong old crop milling prices coming in at that $4.10/bu delivered to plant. As well, there is still strong interest in feed oats. So, if you are hanging on to any oats, give your Rayglen merchant a call and we can help you find it a new home. New crop is coming around the corner and looking good across the prairie provinces. That coupled with what looks to be poorer corn crops/decreased seeded acres from our neighbours to the south, may bolster the oat market. For right now, look to garner anywhere in that $3.35 – $3.60/bu delivered to plant with varied time frames on milling oats.
Canola has had a choppy week with trades bouncing up and down. There is still a lot of un certainty in the canola market as word on the street is that Western Canadian crop conditions are improving. Large supply of old crop is also contributing to holding prices down. The last thing holding prices down is the lagging concern over China’s trade dispute with Canada. West side basis is ranging from $30 under to $47 under and the east side is ranging from $35 under to $50 under. This market will likely remain very unstable until the above statements become clearer.
Flax prices have remained steady with old crop in the $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB range. New crop is also holding at $12.25-$12.50/bu picked up in the yard, with an act of God. There have been strong exports in the last couple of weeks that has dwindled supplies from the Canadian elevators. Analysts are not ready to slash yield averages just yet, even with the later rains. The 2015 flax crop had similar weather patterns to 2019 and the average yield ended up being 24bu/acre. Although there is uncertainty about Canadian crop size, the US is expecting a large crop. This will limit some demand, but if there is a smaller Russian crop that could generate more Canadian flax to the EU and China.
Going through seeded acres, we already know that Canadian pea acres are up, and looking to the US their acres have increased 20% over last year too, as per stat reports. The US who typically has yellow peas accounting for 75% of their pea seeded acres have also seen a switch into green peas due to the increased prices we were seeing. For the quality of the pea crops, recent weather has had peas bouncing back from the earlier poor levels to good/excellent. This current pea crop status has opened some room for buyer’s, as crops have been improving with the rains, to close the gap between old and new crop pricing. Old crop and new crop yellow peas are trading at $6.50/bu FOB, green peas are at $10.50/bu FOB on old and $7.50/bu FOB on new. Maples are sitting at $9-9.50/bu FOB on both old and new.
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