The pea market has softened again this week as buyers are less and less concerned about yields for this upcoming crop. Yellow peas have pulled back to $12.00 – 13.00/bu picked up, with the latter getting much harder to find. Green peas have also come down to $12 – 12.50/bu picked up. However, we may have one option in southeast Sask at $13-13.50/bu if you are okay with movement pushed out to September – November as an old crop sale. New crop remains around $12 – 12.50/bu on both yellows and greens. New crop peas being priced into China have been declining, therefore, we aren’t expecting to see a bump in pricing anytime soon.
This year’s harvest is expected to be much better than last; however, chickpea supplies likely still won’t be boosted up, as carryover has taken a hit. As big storms roll through Alberta this week, we await reports of just how much of the crop ended up being affected by hail; a few early indications would suggest there is going to be some damage. Canadian bids had softened a bit a few weeks back, with old and new crop unchanged this week, still sitting in the high 40 cents/lb range. As we look to other markets, Mexico’s prices have firmed up as their yields ended up being lower than they hoped. We have also seen bids firm up in India and Turkey, as per reports. Now we wait to see if the Canadian market will react favourably to these other export markets having lower supply.
Not much change to report in the barley world this week. The spread between old crop and new crop barley grows tighter every day, so buyers seem to be content in sitting back and waiting for new crop to start hitting the bins. Old crop values are still triggering in that $6.50 – $7.00/bu price range with August movement attached to them. New crop feed barley is priced similar to old crop and will likely trigger around $7.00/bu FOB farm, with potential for a couple more cents depending on area and time frame of delivery. On the malt side of things, the market remains rather slow without much for value indication being thrown out for old crop. We suspect, however, if you have recently completed a quality test on old crop malt sitting in the bin and the specs are good, there might be interest out there. Call in with the details and let us work this for you. New crop still seems rather skittish as well, but we have seen recent indications of $9/bu delivered plant, or better, with AOG. These prices remain great and suspect with lots of areas still getting some heavy shots of rain. There might be more feed out there then initially expected. Locking in some early pricing, along with movement is a move that just makes sense right now.
Wheat markets remain constant this week with demand at the farm gate slow. Reports have suggested that the US is expecting better then normal yields this harvest, ultimately filling up a supply chain that many thought was going empty. Old crop and new crop Durum continue to mimic one another with $13.50/bu trading across the board on #1 quality, with discounts of approximately $0.25/bu for each grade lower. Wheat values continue to hover around that $12.00/bu delivered price for old crop, but that also does not appear to be a deep bid. We suspect once some tonnage is bought at this price, we may see another small price drop. Old crop feed values remain around that $9.50/bu FOB farm range depending on area and time frame of delivery. For any sales targets above the posted values, we highly suggest calling in and placing a firm offer as they still appear to be grabbing some buyer attention.
Oats continue to follow a lackluster path this week with little to no demand on the old crop side of things. For the most part, buyers seem to be full up until harvest, and are comfortable waiting it out to see what new crop is going to bring. If you have some sitting in the bin and are looking to price out, we suggest calling in with a sales target and letting us try to find a market. On a brighter note, new crop remains of interest, still sitting around $6.00/bu delivered plant. Growers can likely expect to tack on another $0.25/bu for late 2022 shipping and an additional quarter for Jan – March of 2023. There seems to be less committed acres this year, so it might be a good time to try locking in a certain percentage of your expected production, get some guaranteed cash flow, and secure earlier movement to clear up bin space that we all hope you all need this year. With seeded acreage reported showing a 16% increase this year, it is likely buyers will not have to search very hard to start supplying their needs once the 2022 harvest begins.
Flax crops are ranked as mostly (73%) good to excellent in mid-July with the hottest and maybe driest stretch of time coming through right now. Lower acres from last year will be mitigated on final tonnage numbers with a back to average yield, but we still have a ways to go before the crop is in the bin. At the end of the day, a “just better” than last year’s crop is still going to be short of an average crop, and world supply issues on flax should support for flax prices into the following year. Current bids are showing $27 to $28/bu for fall/early winter with an act of God and spot prices are at similar, but growers may see slightly better levels of $29/bu on farm in some areas. Trade has been light as farmers are not overanxious to chase bids right now and buyers have secured a bit of new crop and are waiting to see how things unfold.
Mustard prices have been mostly sideways as of late as new crop prices are holding steady despite increased acres. Current new crop bids are at 98 cents/lb on oriental mustard, 89 cents/lb on brown mustard and 96 cents/lb on yellow mustard, all including an act of God and quoted as FOB farm. Most buyers are looking for a full crop year window, September through July 2023, on new crop mustard contracts, but if those timelines are not suitable for you, then adjustments will likely be considered for other movement options. Spot prices have come down in recent weeks as we near new crop and the bins are mostly cleaned out. Brown can still be sold at 150 cents/lb, yellow at 125 cents and oriental at 90 plus cents/lb for at the farm prices. It’s expected to see the spot and new crop bids come together at some point, but we will see how long that takes as the crop is a little later this year and markets are still tight.
Lentil markets continue to soften with reds feeling the most pressure. What is causing reds to fall faster than other types of lentils? Markets believe that red lentils will see a huge improvement over last year based on Saskatchewan and Alberta Ag crop condition reports. Early predictions are stating there will be at least a 50% or higher yield improvement over last year and with an increase in acres, this should shape up to be a large crop. Reds are seeing more downward pressure as buyers feel that there is a bigger crop than expected, less demand from overseas and a large supply of reds around the world. Small green and large green lentils are a bit of a different story, as recent perception is that there are less acres of both and there seems to be steady demand from the trade. The French green lentil market is one that growers should pay close attention to as buyers seem to be asking a lot of questions on this crop. Thoughts are these could be a commodity that is sought after this year as supply may be limited due to reduced acres and no carry over. Call for updated pricing on any type of lentil.
Canaryseed remains in slow trade this week despite historically strong bids for both old and new crop. Why, we ask? Well, it is assumed that most bins, even those that have been full for 10 years, are now cleaned out as growers had taken advantage of record values seen earlier in the year. Today, producers who are still holding product can expect to catch $0.41-$0.42/lb on old crop with movement before harvest; still an outstanding value if you missed the train the first go-round. Growers with crop in the ground are still able to secure new crop contracts at $0.39-$0.42/lb FOB farm with an act of God; again, great values to secure 10bu/ac. On the other hand, we do see little to no carryover, a 7% decrease in seeded acres, and what sounds like not a particularly great start to the crop that was planted. This could mean continued strength in markets for 2022/23, but it could also mean importers look to alternatives and substitutes if canary supply is insufficient or seen as “overpriced.”
Soybean prices are trending on a lower basis, positive US crop prospects, as well as year over year improvements in the Brazilian crop. Local bids are location dependent and range from $18.00-$18.25/bu FOB farm. Fewer planted acres, smaller 2021 crop and measured farmer selling are expected to be supportive factors for dry bean prices. Global faba production prospects appear favourable at this point. Australia faba production is still on track to exceed their 10 yr average. Domestic prices continue to take direction from the pea market. New crop faba bids showing up around $13.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $11-$12/bu FOB farm and old crop #2.
Canola has adjusted to new crop prospects along with taking its lead from the step-down that other global veg oils have encountered. With an estimated 21M acres planted, carryout is still predicted as tight for the end of 22/23. Basis levels have been adjusting in preparation for new crop arrival. That said, there is considerable variance in basis across buyers. This would seem to indicate some individual buyer bias on potential production. Bids are still hovering in the range of $18.85/bu to $17.50/bu picked up location dependent.
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