Flax is looking good to excellent in Saskatchewan according to the latest reports from analysts anticipate good odds of above average yields for 2020. While the crop is not in the bin yet, it has given some breathing room for exporters. Old crop flax prices are starting to merge with new crop pricing and the highs we saw a couple of weeks ago are down slightly. The flax outlook in the key areas of Kazakhstan are reporting dry conditions with yield potential reduced. On the other hand, seeding acres are up 15% in those same areas, so that will offset lower yields somewhat. This could provide more support for Canadian flax exports. There is a small window to move old crop flax out before buyers wait for the new crop harvest to hit the bins, so consider making some final sales.
Oat prices remain strong again this week with old crop bids for July / August still hovering around $4.65/bu delivered to some locations. New crop ranges anywhere from $3.50-$3.70/bu delivered depending on the time frame of delivery. Feed oats have some movement as well indicating $2.50/bu FOB farm as long as they are heavy and dry. We also have some buyers only looking for glyphosate free oats now and after harvest, something to keep in mind to expand selling options. If you have a target in mind, call our office and we can get that set up for you.
The November futures price on canola is down a little bit this morning at time of writing, although grower bids seem to be stable. Product has been trading around $10.50/bu delivered plant in the Saskatoon area with other varying bids throughout the province. The canola-rape oil stocks are getting tight in China, which could provide some support down the line. China’s rape oil prices have gained nearly a third since May 27th. The China/Canada rocky relationship is definitely not helping the situation, but continued purchase commitments of US soybeans from China should provide underling support for canola.
The pea market remains quiet as we inch closer to harvest and is expected to continue this way till new crop comes around. Right now, the pea acres seem to be doing well, with a few disease issues popping up due to excessive moisture. This next week is forecasted to bring some heat which should help with the pulses. Pea prices aren’t expected to fluctuate a bunch after harvest, unless we have yield issues pop up. Even if yield is affected, a price bump could be slow to arise as per reports. Green pea acres are up which will keep pricing at bay, while yellows could see a price recovery if China stays in the market. Current pricing on yellows is $6.00 – 6.50/bu FOB and new crop at $6.50 – 7.00/bu and spot green peas are $9.00/bu FOB with new crop at $8.50/bu. Maple peas are $8.00/bu FOB and $8.50/bu FOB on new crop. Into this week we have seen more buyers state glyphosate free is the preference, so growers need to be aware on their market restrictions.
Wheat futures were up across the board this morning. However, wheat acres in Canada and the US seem to be doing well overall, which could affect pricing from pushing higher. Bids on higher protein (13.5%) HRS wheat see $6.00/bu but with delivery dates pushed out further into the year. We do have a buyer looking for low protein wheat, so if you have some in the bin that isn’t quite feed, we may have some other options. Feed wheat/durum is trading at $4.75 – 5.50/bu FOB and the durum market also had a few $8.00/bu new crop trades in the South East based on a #1 US quality.
The chickpea market is very quiet right now. Spot prices are very hard to come by, but we have a few buyers kicking around with some bids in the mid 20’s with across the board pricing. On the other hand, some buyers are showing much lower prices. We still have a buyer or two posting new crop values in the high twenties delivered to plant with an act of God, but we don’t have any indication how deep that business is so treat as such. Reports again this year, like last, of an emerging plant health issue showing up in chickpeas in southern Saskatchewan as well as Montana & North Dakota raise concerns with this crop and bring questions about the future on growing them here. As further information on this malady comes in, we will share it but we have talked to multiple producers who have already dropped chickpeas as an option last year due to this problem so this will likely compound that response.
Old crop canary seed pricing has dipped down as new crop and old start to converge. Old crop bids are currently sitting at 27 – 27.5 cents/lb delivered in. New crop canary continues to trade at 26 cents/lb picked up on the farm for Sept – Dec with an Act of God. The crop conditions on canary seed have dipped a bit and are pegged at around 60% rating good to excellent. Hopefully the weather will co-operate and bump these numbers up.
Soybean futures are in a tug-o-war with optimism over favorable crop development and continued Chinese demand. Tensions between the U.S. and China could spoil demand prospects. That said China continues to make purchase commitments for U.S. origin soybeans. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $9.50-$10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.
Feed barley prices are still strong for movement in July/Aug. They then start to drop off to slightly lower new crop values so now is the time to get the last bit in the bin sold before the prices converge. Old crop barley that is heavy and dry is trading between $4.00-$4.40/bu FOB farm depending on location, while new crop ranges between $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm. For both prices, the closer to southern Alberta you get, the stronger the pricing will be. We have also have bids for any off spec feed barley, so be sure to call in for a price in your area.
With the recent rain we are heating some reports that lentil crop conditions are deteriorating due to disease. Talking with farmers this week most have done their first pass of fungicide and some are on their second. News of these condition has not affected market price as of yet. Red lentil old crop pricing continues to converge with new crop pricing. Large green lentils remain relatively strong on old crop pricing with #2’s trading between 28-29 picked up on farm. New crop large green pricing is a little hard to find but seems to be still sitting around 28/26 for a number #1/#2 priced contract. Predictions are that red lentil supply should be average, but the green lentils supply may remain tight. The Hindu Business Line reported that the Indian government has announced an increase in their MSP (minimum support price) for lentils for the upcoming kharif crop. The increase is said to be a gain of 3.48%. They are hoping to encourage the seeding of more pulse therefore reducing their need to import. Increase acres on paper is great concept but the crop is a long way from the bin. So, until the crop is in the ground and harvested it is anyone’s guess on what kind of supply they will have this winter.
This past week has been fairly stable on mustard prices, with the low acreage number seeming to still provide support. The prospect of very good crops and yields hasn’t dampened prices due to the surprise seeded acreage report showing the huge reduction. Again, the story remains the same; slow export pace along with some skepticism in the seeded acreage report. This is why we see values creeping up a little but not going much higher at this juncture. Yellow mustard remains at 40 cents for old and new crop. Brown is solid at 32 for new crop and 30 to 32 for spot pricing, depending on movement. Oriental Forge sits at 28 for new crop and 26 to 27 cents for old crop might trade. Oriental Cutlass sits at 27 for new crop and 25 for old crop possibly. Moving old crop oriental is a bit of a challenge right now. Call your merchant for details.
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