This week, old crop flax bids seem to be taking a back seat while buyers wait for new crop to come off. Those with flax in the bin, or in the ground, may still be able to catch $27.00/bu picked up, but the pool of buyers is dwindling. While we know that carry-over is lacking heading into the 2022/23 season, analysts expect stronger yields year over year, easing some pressure. This could allow more export opportunities, especially into Europe. The US flax crop is also expecting increased yields, but the lower seeded area will still allow for import prospects. The majority of imports will come from Canada, however there is likely to be competition as the US continues to bring in flax from Russia. It is also expected Kazakhstan might be another possible source.
The barley world remains relatively unchanged and continues to float around similar pricing ranges as last week. Old crop feed values are indicated around $6.25 – $6.75/bu FOB farm for August – September shipment. Despite the downturn from yearly highs, these prices are still historically strong when considering the past 5 – 10 years. As new crop approaches and reports of the planted crop powering through, we don’t expect that these markets to skyrocket anytime soon. That said, moving what’s left in the bin is still highly suggested. Old crop malt bids and sales remain quiet, which comes as no surprise given the time of year. Anything purchased now likely needs to be graded and checked for quality before anything is booked. New crop values remain quiet too, but if you have something to offer, give us a call! New crop feed barley is still triggering around that $7.00/bu FOB farm price for September forward shipping. Once again this looks like a sale on our books even if it’s just 25% of expected production. Quick movement and added cashflow at historically strong values just make sense right now.
How about those peas? Crop reports indicate that both Sask and Alberta pea crops rank between 71-75% good to excellent, with more yellow in the ground than green. The crop isn’t off yet, but it’s looking favourable, and it’s likely we will see above average yields, though maybe on a few less acres. What does that mean for pricing? Well, bids continue to soften, now showing $12 to maybe $12.50/bu picked up on the farm, with parity between old and new crop, yellow and green. There is the odd exception to these values with a couple niche market opportunities – please call the office to discuss. If these types of values don’t quite do it, feel free to call and test the waters on a firm target.
The wheat market continues to retreat from past week highs, with buyer bids hovering around $11.00/bu delivered in on a 13.5% protein #1 red spring. Not far off that bid happens to be feed wheat bids with buyers entertaining values around $9.50-10/bu picked up on the farm depending on location. There may be some stability on the horizon with Ukraine and Russia. A deal was brokered with Africa, in where the latter was able to secure 20-25 million MT of grain that was previously blocked in Ukrainian ports. Is this a sign of progress? Ukraine is a large supplier of the World Food Programme’s wheat, which is good news for all those in need. Switching gears to durum, buyer bids have also taken a step back as $12/bu seems to be the new going rate, with potential for the ugly word, “fusarium,” being tossed around in some locations, more notably, southeast Sask.
Spot mustard prices have come down in recent weeks as we get closer to harvest. New crop and old crop pricing are going to meet at some point, but we still have a slight window to sell spot significantly higher. Brown can still be sold at 140 to 150 cents/lb, yellow at around that 130 cent mark, and oriental at the 90-cent range; FOB farm is still possible for August. New crop bids are at 98 cents/lb on oriental mustard, 89 cents/lb on brown mustard and 96 cents/lb on yellow mustard, all including an act of God and quoted as FOB farm. Most buyers are looking for a full crop year shipping window, September through July 2023, on new crop mustard contracts. Harvest is getting closer, and these spot bids should be looked at for cleaning out the bins as soon as possible.
Chickpea crops are receiving positive input from both Sask and Alberta, and expectations are that the crop is above average with a yield that would have the production at 125,000MTS. There is still quite some time between now and harvest, so continued rainfall could hurt the quality and create a bull feel to the market. There are already reports of disease in the South, but no way to know how widespread it is. Canadian exports are maintaining tone with far above average shipments and noting the largest export for the month since Nov 2017. Prices have been maintaining tone globally with no real fluctuations worth mentioning. Old and new crop values are at par around $0.44/lb FOB farm and AOG still available. Sample grade and pet food is still coming in around $0.30/lb FOB farm.
Continuous dry weather in Western Sask is having a potential impact on canaryseed crop quality and yield; expect the next Sask Ag report to shed more light. Market values have maintained tone for both old and new and despite reports of the bins being empty, there always seems to be couple loads floating around when the price is right. Current crop bids are around $0.42/lb FOB farm and new crop bids are not far behind at $0.40/lb with an AOG still available. Buyers have still been entertaining targets, so if you have a bin in the back needing to be emptied, call for options.
The lentils market remains quiet but steady as buyers wait for new crop to hit the bin. Red lentils seem to be the market that is seeing the most downside pressure. Old crop price seems to top out at 32 cents/lb FOB for limited tonnage. New crop is ranging between 28-30 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Information from buyers this week is that there is no demand or concerns from overseas buyers with the supply of reds. If Canada and Australia both produce an average crop, this market likely remains slow. There seems to be a bit more demand for large green and small green lentils at the moment. New crop pricing has been in the 42-44 cent FOB with an AOG on #2 large green lentils, and 38-40 cents on small green lentils. There seems to be interest for the green lentils, but not much information to provide a good outlook yet on this market.
Oats have gone completely quiet in the last week. Buyers are covered for the first six months of the upcoming crop year thanks to a lot of producers taking advantage of the high-priced production contracts. Moving unpriced product off the combine this year may be more difficult due to this fact. If there are quality issues with some of the pre-contracted oats, this may open up an opportunity for the unpriced oats. The oat market seems to have hit that point in the year where buyers are willing to wait for the arrival of new crop. Indicated values for old crop milling are around $5/bu FOB farm give or take pending area if you can find a willing purchaser.
Canola markets see a yo-yo pattern this week with futures seemingly taking losses one day and making gains the next. Today, we are happy to report that at time of writing both November and January futures are up approx. $10/MT putting them at $823/MT and $832/MT, respectively. After factoring in local basis levels, grower values pencil out to $18.75-$19.25/bu delivered plant. Support comes from a rally in soy markets, which show soybeans, meal, and oil all posting gains today. Growers are encouraged to take advantage of these rallies and may want to consider making final sales before harvest.
Soybean futures have recently increased based on declining crop conditions across the Midwest. For now, the market has a bullish tone due to decreasing planted acre estimates and robust global demand for edible oils. Local bids are location dependent and range from $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm. Lower dry bean planted acre forecasts continue to be supported by analysts and statisticians. Dry bean prices are predicted to remain well supported through harvest predicated on lower year over year production. A similar story exists within faba beans. It’s anticipated that Western Canadian planted acres could be the second lowest in 10 years at under 60,000 acres. As it relates to pricing, fabas are still taking their lead from domestic feed pulse markets. New crop faba bids showing up around $12.00/bu FOB for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $10-11/bu FOB farm location dependent.
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