Submit Your Grain Offer

Rayglen Market Comments – July 4, 2019

Spot Canaryseed prices have been holding at 24 cents picked up the last couple of weeks. New crop is holding at 23 cents, picked up, with a full act of God. There has been a market shift over the last month due to many factors. Heavy rains the past 10 days have helped our crop conditions however, some analysts write that a yield drop is still almost certain. India’s nigerseed is also steady, but the Indian government pegged the 2018/19 production at 63,000 tonnes, the smallest crop in the last 20 years. Market prices on canary are likely to hold sideways until supplies start to decline.

Despite the latest StatsCan report showing an increase in acres, primarily in Saskatchewan, oat prices are still holding strong with up to $4.10/bu delivered available. Low carryout supplies have resulted in higher prices as of late. New crop prices remain in the $3.35-$3.60/bu range depending on delivery time. Feed oats have been less bullish due to corn futures backing off in the last week, although Wednesday’s corn run may help some. For those looking to move some product before harvest, we do have some prompt movement still available.

Now that we have seen the acreage numbers, yield potential will be the new discussion on lentils. These past couple of weeks we have seen widespread rains throughout Saskatchewan and, for the most part, lentils were able to hold on through the lack of early moisture. Many fields have taken a turn for the better and actually look quite nice. Yield potential could struggle to meet the 5-year average, as per Stat reports, but carryout and what we expect to be a largely planted crop across the prairies, leaves less concern over supply. Since the rains, there has been increased grower interest in locking in the first 10 bu/acre with an Act of God. Red lentils are trading at 20 cents/lb delivered on old crop and 18c/lb FOB on new crop. Large greens are at 21-21.50 cents/lb FOB on a #2 and new crop has been trading at 23c (X2)/21c (#2) FOB with AOG. Small greens trade at 19 cents delivered on a #1, while new crop triggers at 18c (#1)/16c (#2) FOB.

Continued rain events seem to be reaching most of the prairie provinces and turning crops around. That means some of the strong spot feed wheat prices have trimmed down to around $6.00 FOB farm with higher prices being obtained near feedlot ally, which captures about $7.00 delivered. Old crop milling wheat took a bit of a hit with new crop just around the corner. $6.40/bu with 13.5% protein delivered to plant for August seems to be the going rate. Old crop and new crop durum remain par and sit around that $7.00 delivered to plant, with new crop feed wheat fetching you around that $5.00/bu FOB farm for Sept – Dec movement. New crop milling wheat remains a tad lackluster this go around, but if that should change, we will keep you in the loop. The futures market remains optimistic with the wild weather across the globe, so stay tuned.

The mustard market remains on cruise control the past few weeks, with prices about the same as they have been. Current bids show 35 cents/lb for yellow mustard, both spot and fall pricing. The brown market is still bid at 30 cents as a picked up in the yard price on new and old. Oriental is the one stickler of the bunch; new crop pricing is available around 25 cents whilst old crop prices are very hard to track down. Some old crop oriental pricing was found at 24 cents with movement getting pushed into fall, obviously not curing the bin space issues that some growers are looking to rectify. Mustard conditions have perked up some due to recent rains, but the crop is behind and will obviously face its hurdles. We would still expect a lower than average yield on this crop at this time. We look to dry crop conditions in the black sea area to possibly provide a shimmer of hope on pricing as well.

The month of July can be a very shaky month for peas, but there will be little to no change in markets unless the weather takes a turn for the worse. Weather watching not only here in Canada, but also overseas. For example, if the monsoon rains in India are poor and the irrigation reservoirs are depleted, we may see India jumping back into the market and doing some purchasing in 2020.  With that being said, prices are sluggish and unchanged from previous weeks. New crop yellow peas continue to hover at $6.50/bu FOB, while old crop remains bid at $6.80 to $7.00/bu delivered. The green pea market has been slow as well and sits around $11.00/bu FOB, area specific. Firm new crop bids come in at $7.50/bu with a slight chance at $8.00 bu/FOB farm. For most up to date prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant.

StatsCan seeded acreage survey gathered that flax is up 9% from last year, which seems a bit lower than anticipated. With that being said, the market setters are Kazakh, Russia and Western Canada following. Even being third on the list, shortly after the report came out markets softened. We still have buyers that are looking for brown flax just over $14/bu delivered, so if you have product that you want moved, now might be the best time before their position is filled. New crop bids are still available ranging between $12.25-12.50/bu FOB farm on #1 quality, with an act of God. Yellow flax is around $14/bu delivered to plant on old crop and new crop bids hit $14/bu FOB in select locations.

Canola markets take another hit to start the week with an average drop of $5/MT. This is believed to be due to short positions being filled and continued precipitation throughout Western Canada. There are still several areas that are suffering dry weather, but this has had little effect on the grand scale of the market. Current values hover at $9-$9.50/bu FOB farm through to November and $0.20-0.30/bu carry out to March 2020 (freight sensitive). We can not expect any big swings in Canola as we wait out political and environmental issues.

Barley markets have maintained a good value, but are starting to trend downward as rain continues through the greater parts of Ab, Sk and Mb. There are pocket regions of acres that are still dry, but for the most part, increased acres and continued precipitation equal lower values. Feed barley new crop values range from $4-4.25/bu FOB farm and old crop at $5.00-$5.50/bu FOB farm. Malt barley is steadfast as the nearby markets filled and deferred month values for 2020 are not trigger levels for growers. Still some volatility on malt as we move through the summer months. New crop Malt, valued on average, at $5-5.10/bu FOB farm NO AOG throughout Western Canada.

Picking up from last week on what is now old news, on the 28th the USDA estimated 2019 US soybean seeded acres at 80 million. The 10% decrease from 2018 was a shock to the trade and left many questioning the validity of the survey that places seeded acres at their lowest since 2013. Nonetheless, the market reacted upwards and has since corrected a little. Ultimately markets must wait six weeks to learn more about acreage, which should create choppy markets that are trading based on the weekly crop progress reports. Soybeans may be gazing down the barrel of lost acres and lower yields that could make for exciting markets. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Faba traders still attempting to ground Stat Can’s puzzling 18% decrease in faba seeded acres. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Dry bean planting delays in both Ontario and Michigan could drag these seeded acre numbers lower. Thus far Canadian dry bean acres are estimated to be up modestly 0.3% to 354,000 acres and the US is estimated up 9% to 1.31M acres. Surveys were conducted prior to plant so the real planted acres will be known later. It’s expected that we’ll see some short-term seasonal choppy trade. Barring a North American crop failure on the east side of the continent, long-term outlook should support sideways trade values.

Chickpea markets continue to run sideways this week. StatsCan put this year’s seeded acres down 13% from last year, although in such small markets these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Despite lower acres, the industry feels there is a large enough supply of carry over to support export demand in the short term. That’s a big reason we expect to see this market remain quiet for some time. Current spot contracts are trading between 23-24 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location and sizing. New crop contracts are still available between 24-25 cents/lb FOB farm for movement between Sept-Dec and include a full AOG.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees