The feed wheat market has seen some life again this week, now trading up to $8.75/bu FOB farm in a few locations. Buyers seem to be looking for product quite aggressively, so those with wheat on farm are urged to use the target system to capture the highs. New crop feed wheat prices remain strong and are bid over $7.00/bu in many areas of the Prairies. Moving to the milling side of things, #1, 13.5% protein CWRS has been trading between $9.00 to $9.20/bu delivered for fall movement, while #1 US spec milling durum trades between $9.50 to $9.75/bu FOB the farm in SE Sask. New crop bids are still guaranteed delivery, meaning there is no act of God to cover quality or quantity loss. For firm bids on your farm please reach out to your merchant.
Oat markets remain very quiet this week, but with the past heatwave across many key growing areas, along with a lack of moisture, we may start to hear reports of crops in jeopardy. At this point buyers are covered into the fall but continue to look for 2022 product. New crop milling oats are sitting around $3.50-4.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight and timeframe. As we inch closer to harvest, now is a good time to remind growers that to avoid limiting your marketing options, we would suggest steering clear of glyphosate and/or reaching out to your merchant regarding acceptable pre harvest chemicals. Currently, there is a bit of demand for feed oats, but the bushel weight has to be up for most buyers to even take a look. That said, if you do have light oats on farm, reach out and we will do our best to track down a bid. Offers are a good way to catch a high in the market and showcase what you have available, so don’t hesitate to discuss this marketing tool with your merchant.
The lentil market has been very quiet the past several weeks with most buyers content to take the “sit and wait” approach rather than increase bids to secure product. At this point, we have mixed reports of areas that vary from quite poor to pretty good. Even though we haven’t received much rain throughout the Prairies, and we just came out of a crazy heatwave, lentils seem to be hanging in there overall. Lentils are known as the “desert crop”, but there does come a breaking point, so hopefully we see some rain to finish the crop off on a strong note. All in all, buyers are still willing to purchase almost all types of old and new crop lentils. Old crop reds are sitting around $0.31-0.32/lb FOB farm, large greens between $0.33-0.35/lb and small greens anywhere around $0.30-0.31/lb FOB farm. There are attractive new crop opportunities out there with an act of God as well. Contact your merchant for firm FOB farm values.
Barley markets remain rather interesting as of late with old crop bids now ranging anywhere from $6.50-$7.30/bu at the bin and new crop sitting around $5.60-$6.20/bu FOB, pending freight costs. For those with barley still in the bin, this might be a reason to sell. When was the last time you’ve seen those types of values for malt barley let alone feed? However, at this point we suspect there really isn’t much product left sitting on farm, or at least there shouldn’t be based on the strong values all year. On the other hand, recent reports have suggested that producers who are still holding on may try and offset a poorer looking harvest with their remaining bushels, which is understandable. As far as new crop contracting goes, you likely don’t want to lock up 50% of what you expect to produce based on crop conditions, but 10% might be a comfortable number at historically high values. Barley can be a surprising crop and a timely rain here and there might be enough to push it through. Whether these values push higher is hard to say, but as it sits now, the rate of return on barley is close to if not at the top when compared to other commodities.
After last week’s StatsCan report on flax, we see a new estimate of a 10% increase in seeded acres compared to last year. Supplies are expected to be unchanged, due to a slim carryover number. New crop prices are sideways, and range anywhere from $18.00-$18.50/bu picked up, depending on movement timeframe. For those with any flax left in the bins, it is still possible to capture upwards of $23.00/bu FOB; a tough value to ignore. Globally, the market is counting on the Black Sea region to cover any shortfall, however there are some parts as you move into Kazakhstan and Siberia that are dry, which could threaten yields. There are a couple of reports that Russian crop conditions are faring well, and this remains a production area to keep an eye on. Finally, it remains uncertain how much of a player China will be in the market for next year which could potentially offset any production shortages.
I know this may come as a surprise, but chickpea markets remain relatively quiet for another week. Sporadic and periodic rains have sprinkled large parts of Western Canada but the size profile for the coming harvest continues to be a concern. There is a bit of a pop for a short supply available at $0.38/lb delivered Southwest & Northwest Sask. for July/Aug. movement but most of the market remains at $0.34-$0.35 old and new crop with freight sensitivity. These ebbs and flows give a feeling of how this market will continue for the unforeseeable future. Buyer has demand, pop up to fill it and then cut it off like a bad habit. Whether or not these pops are considered opportunity is up to the individual but with each of them we tend to find someone willing to fill the demand. Call for target opportunities.
Despite a bit of a recovery today, canola futures have dropped lower this week in a big way. Today’s recovery is due to support from soybean futures rising. November futures are currently sitting at $786/MT, down from last week at $807/MT. Meanwhile January futures are at $778/MT, also down from last week when they were at $802/MT. Much of the downward pressure this week came from major soybean growing areas in the US receiving significant rainfall. Despite the drop, much of western Canada has not received the moisture they need to produce an average canola crop, and this is something traders will need to keep a close eye on over the rest of the growing season.
Soybean futures are up based on decreasing US crop condition scores. Even with recent rains, the soybean crop appears to be struggling with dry conditions slightly more than the US corn crop. Firm Offers (targets), are still proving to be the most successful method to find a buyer for remaining soybean inventories. Recent stats indicate an increase in new crop faba seeded acres. Old crop feed quality fabas have been trading between $8.50/bu and $9.00/bu picked up on farm. Production challenges continue to be reported in in the major dry bean states of North Dakota and Minnesota and dry bean prices remain firmly supported. Contact Rayglen with your specific class and quality for marketing opportunities.
Acres are lower on all types of peas and due to heat/drought pushing things back from where they could be the crop is not looking great at this juncture. Pea crops don’t look strong in the US either, so the local (North American) production is not likely to be as strong as recent years. All this should bode well for our prices, but we must keep in mind that these are global markets and production in other parts of the world will have a say in this. Current bids have picked up a touch on old crop green peas with $9.50 to $9.75/bu picked up on farm trading for #2 quality. One thing to note, getting bin space cleared out before mid-August is an uphill battle to say it shortly. Yellow pea prices are in and around $10/bu picked up, but higher numbers might hit on target. If you are looking for a home for maple peas right now it might be a tough find as that market has really dried up and bids are indicated around $9/bu with minimal buyer interest.
It was very hot & windy last week in most mustard growing areas. There are concerns about crop condition, but this week has brought some cooler temperatures and scattered showers which should help to alleviate some of the pressure. Reports of crop demolishing hail have also come up, so we must keep monitoring the overall conditions out there. Prices are thus staying very strong. Yellow mustard remains at $0.50/lb FOB farm for old crop and as high as $0.52/lb for new crop. Brown mustard sits at $0.43 for July movement and $0.42 on new crop. Oriental mustard is still being bid at $0.35/lb to $0.36lb FOB farm for Forge & Vulcan varieties, with the same discount applicable (~$0.02/lb) down to $0.33-$0.34/lb FOB farm on Cutlass variety for both old and new crop. It is important to show your merchant an offer as mustard could trigger higher on target. Show us what you have and don’t be shy to let us know what you want!
Last weeks StatsCan report showed a 15% seeded acreage increase over last year on canary seed, which should help bump up bushel numbers as a whole. Though the weather is taking a toll on yield potential and that problem looks to persist moving forward, we have seen sporadic and spotty precipitation accumulate throughout different areas. This should help to soften some of the blow given by Mother Nature in recent weeks. Currently both old and new crop pricing remains unchanged as $0.35/lb FOB trades in most locations and likely gets interest on a firm offer outside of the wheelhouse. Pricing looks to remain firm moving forward as ending stocks will be tight and environmental stressors on the currently planted crop seem to be bearing down.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.