As we know, pea acreage numbers remain fairly neutral in total acres, with green peas seeing an increase in plantings and yellows decreasing. Green peas were trading at favorable values which pushed the decision for more greens to be planted this year. Overall, our new crop values are steady, but we saw old crop values take a hit these past couple of weeks. Yellow peas are trading at $6.50 – 6.75/bu FOB, while greens are bid at $10.00/bu delivered. New crop bids sit at $7.00/bu on yellows and $8.50/bu on greens. With green pea acres up, there may not be much of a price uptick going into fall, but reports suggest we may see some upside to yellows. Maple pea markets remain unchanged, with new crop at $9.00/bu and old crop down slightly to $8.00 – 8.50/bu.
Canola futures have been gaining strength over the last little while and markets closed at their highest point in the last 3 months yesterday. The reason for the gains has a lot to do with excessive moisture in Western Canada and crop development concerns. As we write this, canola is so far unchanged this morning, but we hope to see continued strength as the day goes on. Producer delivered plant bids range between $10.50/bu in northwest Sask, down to $10.15/bu in the southwest. For the most up to date prices in your area, basis levels and/or a firm FOB farm bid, please call your Rayglen merchant.
Even with an estimated acreage increase of 12%, lentil prices remain sideways this week. Of course, yields will play a role in supply, but with less carry-over, the crop shouldn’t feel burdensome. Lentil bids haven’t collapsed and there is still opportunity to move old crop. We would expect to see old crop prices start to align with new crop at this time, but spot bids remain at an attractive premium (5cents/lb on reds and 1-2cents/lb on large greens). Red lentils are accounting for most of the gains in acres, so we may see more upside potential in green lentils in the future. The recent wet conditions in some areas could affect quality, but the latest Sask Ag report shows continued improvement on the 2020 lentil crop overall.
This year a decrease in flax acres of 3% is very minor and prices reflect that with no change in new crop values. If yields are average, production would be pegged at an increase of 8% from last year according to analysts. Exports in June showed shipments to the EU and China, but volumes will be limited this month. There is still demand for milling flax but supplies on farm seem to be of poorer quality and/or spring threshed. If you do have milling quality in the bins, $16.00/bu would be an attainable number. New crop brown flax continues to trade around $13.00/bu FOB farm. While Canadian supplies are likely to remain tight, the larger than expected US acreage will limit exports there. There are also some early reports with dryness in the Black Sea region; we remain optimistic that this could leave room for more Canadian flax being shipped into China and the EU for 20/21.
Old crop milling oats are still trading strong, around $4.50/bu delivered in. Give your Rayglen merchant a call if you want to put out a firm target if you’re looking to capture more. Feed prices are trading sideways this week as we continue to hold onto pricing at that $2.50 – $3.00/bu picked up in the yard on dry, heavy product. Farm stocks are tight leading to a slim carryout which could put a little pressure on new crop if there are any issues. Right now, all eyes turn to the skies to see how things will play out because so far, the oat crop is looking good.
Recent US weather forecast was positive for crop development and sent soybean futures tumbling after a recent run-up. Cash sales are indexing with easing futures prices. Just as in most years, soybean futures are currently trading a weather market and will surge and slide with the weather radar. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Still good opportunities to contract new crop faba bids at $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. The acreage increase in dry beans is old news. Dry bean production will still be a question mark as we move through summer and into harvest. If seeded acres and crop intentions come to fruition, one can expect some pressure on local cash bids.
Chickpea markets maintain tone this past week. Despite both Canada and the US reporting lower acres overall, but higher than expected, the values have not changed. Canadian export data revealed the year-to-date export volume at only 91,000 MTS vs 130,000 MTS in 2018/19 crop year. Additionally, the US stocks to date are reporting 12% more than this time last year coming in at 196,000 MTS. According to StatsCan, as of late June, 75% of the chickpea crop was rated good/excellent compared to last year at 59% and the 10-year average of 63%. The producer’s reluctance to sell has kept values steady to date but any bump in the price could trigger selling and in turn soften those values beyond todays bid.
Wheat markets remain steady as we continue through the summer months and watch how weather will have an effect on quality. The hot and humid conditions are an ideal scenario for fusarium and concerns are growing on how being 10-14 days behind a typical growth year might play out. Old crop 12.5% – 13.5% pro HRSW prices range from $5.75 – $6.25/bu delivered into plant with Aug-September movement. Feed wheat prices are ranging from $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up on the farm for July/Aug movement.
Feed barley prices have begun to drop off as we approach the new crop year. Bids for heavy and dry feed barley are ranging between $4.00-$4.25/bushel FOB farm depending on location. Most of this barley is heading to southern Alberta so the further west you’re located, the better the price. We have been able to get some moved in July still, but that window will be closing very quickly. New crop feed barley bids are around as well, and we have seen up to $4.00/bushel FOB farm on the west side for movement in the fall.
Spot prices have come off a bit on canary as prompt windows to move product slowly dry up. We still have some buyers that would look at up to 28 cents for movement in late summer, but if bin space in July is what you want you may have to swallow prices closer to 26-27 cents/lb picked up on yard. Not bad compared to the 21 to 25 cent range we have grown accustomed to over the past 5 years. The new crop prices are holding up at solid levels still, with 26 cents at the farm for Sept to December including an act of God as a tradable number in most areas. Stocks are fairly tight, we think, so if weather issues kick in, we may see some upward price trend. Keep in mind bird food is one of those markets that seems to have fairly easy replacements so canary will likely follow what millet and the other bird food commodities do.
It’s been over a week since the acreage report came out on mustard, surprising most in the business as to how the low the number was. In the time since, we have seen a firming in prices, and modest moves slightly higher in some areas. Yellow mustard is now up at 38 to 39 cents for spot. New crop has moved higher and has a 40-cent bid now for full crop year movement. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is stable at 30 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 28 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades have jumped to 30 cents FOB for spot and now up as high as 32 cents for new crop with September to July movement. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop and discuss options on new crop and old.
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