The lentil market has been softening on the notion of a few areas catching rain and new crop approaching quickly. India’s red lentil prices have also pulled back from their recent highs, as we anxiously wait to hear whether or not the Indian government will reduce lentil tariffs. Current pricing on red lentils is sitting at $0.34-$0.35/lb delivered, with new crop values at $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Large greens are priced at $0.38/lb delivered for old crop and $0.35-$0.36/lb FOB farm on new crop with AOG. Small green lentil trades have been a bit quieter over the past couple of weeks, but there are interested buyers. Old crop bids have settled out around $0.34/lb delivered, while new crop values are indicated at $0.32/lb on farm with an act of God. It is key to note that in any case buying positions are not deep. Once buyers secure enough tonnage on their sale, pricing seems to fade almost immediately, so those sitting on the fence may want to consider making sales while these values are still attainable.
Oats remain to be small talk in the world of grain lately as demand for milling quality is mostly pushed out until the harvest months. That said, there might still be a window of opportunity to let some go before new crop hits the bin, but we suspect bids to be around that $3.00/bu range give or take a few cents. There continues to be some movement into the feed market for oats, but buyers are looking for heavy product with little interest in light weight. New crop milling oats are sitting around the $4.25/bu mark delivered into Southern Manitoba with values increasing a bit if you push delivery into 2022. At the bin pricing is available so reach out to a merchant for a firm value on your farm. We do not expect old crop values to go any higher from now until August, so we highly suggest if you need it out of the bin before harvest to start looking for sales now. The other option: carry it over and see what we are dealing with after the 2021 crop is harvested.
Flax acreage estimates from both StatsCan, and the USDA will come out in the last week of June, but analysts are not expecting any big changes from previous reports. April showed a drop in exports of Canadian flax to Europe and China, while shipments to the US were steady. Exports will continue to drop for the next coming months due to limited supply. Russian analysts issued a 2021 flax forecast of 850,000 tonnes, up from 788,000 tonnes compared to last year. While Russian exports could have new records for 2021/22, there are areas in Siberia with dry conditions, so these predictions are still early. New crop prices remain strong at $18-$18.50/bu picked up with an act of God. For those with flax in the bins, let us know what you have as we still have buyers looking.
The canola market is taking another hit Wednesday morning, down almost $30/MT on the nearby and $21/MT on new crop. This follows a string of down days as the canola market trails weakness in soybeans coupled with recent rains that have our crops looking a little better. Warm and windy weather may taper some of the losses though, if Mother Nature doesn’t smarten up soon. Nearby basis levels have not fallen to pieces yet and new crop levels are stronger than normal, which lends to the thought that there should still be some support for this market in one way or another. With the added moisture of recent weeks, we have saw some increased selling in certain areas for new crop production as sales in the $16 to $17/bu range is a great spot to take the top off on a low risk 10 bushel or so position. If you have not made any sales yet a small position may be a prudent move.
Barley crops look to be off to a decent start this year with most areas catching some rain over the past few weeks. It does not go unnoted that soaring temperatures and strong winds won’t take long to dry out fields again, but we all hope to see a few more showers before that happens. Spot bids have held up relatively well considering, and new crop prices are still holding strong as corn and wheat values remain high. Demand for old crop has fallen off a bit and buyers don’t seem as aggressive as they once were, but there are still opportunities to make profitable sales. With new crop around the corner, some demand softness likely comes from curiosity of what this year will bring. Today, new crop prices are between $5-5.50/bu FOB farm for Sept.-Dec. movement. Old crop bids are sitting around $6.15-6.70/bu FOB farm for Summertime movement. Offers are a good way to show buyers what you have and to try and squeeze a bit more value out of your product. Keep this in mind when marketing now and in the future.
Chickpea exports were reported to be up to 102K MT for the year compared to 84K MT last year. This will reduce the amount of carry expected for 2022, but still leave a substantial amount on farm. The main buyer remains to be Pakistan, but Syria and Lebanon are also in the mix. Sask. Ag’s first crop report slated chickpeas thus far to be 68% good/excellent which is below last year’s 76% for the same time frame. The general feel is an expected increase in chickpea values, but this looks to be a long climb vs a jump. Current new crop and old crop values hover at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG on new crop. Sample/feed values, depending on downgrading factor, are indicated at $0.22/lb today. New crop Desi chickpeas have recently peaked one buyer’s interest for #2 or better quality at $0.30/lb FOB farm including AOG. Bids are freight sensitive, so please call with location if interested. Lastly, if you already have acres booked, don’t forget to submit your land locations to secure your AOG.
The milling wheat market has been stable over the last while, trading between $8.70 to $8.75/bu delivered for #1 CWRS on August delivery. Production opportunities are a touch softer, being bid at $8.50 to $8.70/bu for Nov./Dec. movement. The milling durum market continues to capture sales in extreme SE Sask. with buying taking place between $9.00 and $9.50/bu FOB farm for late Summer/early Fall movement. Unfortunately, we just haven’t seen the same demand outside of that Southeast pocket, but growers are encouraged to post realistic offers in their area to try and capture some of this demand. Feed wheat values have softened a touch this week and have now been trading between $7.50 to $8.35/bu FOB farm. Western SK. and Alberta have seen the highest indications of feed due to their closer proximity to feedlot alley.
Soybean futures continue to regress due to anticipated promising weather and reducing US crush rates. High prices have caused local soybean demand to wane. Best play at this point is to use target price offers to attract buyer interest. The feed market has kept faba beans well supported thus far. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean prices remain well supported for remaining inventories, both North and South of the 49th. A reduction in seeded acres and challenging growing conditions in the Northern states have offered strength to new crop opportunities.
Mustard prices continue to be stable and strong this week with no changes to report. Yellow mustard is right around 50 cents/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Brown mustard is at 41 cents/lb FOB farm for old and new crop. Rounding things out, Oriental mustard is at 35 cents/lb FOB farm for Forge/Vulcan varieties and 33 cents/lb FOB farm for Cutlass on both old and new crop. All new crop contracts include an AOG on 10 bu/acre. Some much-needed rains in the last few weeks across the Prairies, as well as strong prices are creating some profitable opportunities that are worth a look. If you have a partial load in the bin don’t be shy to call in as we have a number of buyers willing to make the freight work at these top prices.
Peas have settled back down after seeing a little uptick last week. There are a few bids left at $10.00/bu FOB for yellows in the right location and growers outside the wheelhouse are encouraged to try to create an offer. Green peas have settled back to that $9.50/bu delivered mark. When talking with buyers this week, it is reported that there is very little demand coming out of China right now, which is keeping the market subdued. Reports suggest that the increased green pea demand and value over the last couple of weeks was due to product being bought to go into Nepal. Now that prices have settled, we can infer they were not looking for many tons and that the shipping window was fairly tight as well. The market will remain unsettled as demand at this time of year is normally relatively quiet.
Canaryseed values continue their trek sideways this week. Bids remain unchanged while demand seems to be softer than just a few weeks prior. This could be a sign that it is time to get those bins cleaned out and new crop on the books before harvest hits, as we restock the shelf and buyers reposition themselves. Old crop values are quoted as high as 35.5 cents/lb delivered with new crop being bid at only a slight discount, to 33.5 cents/lb. New crop contracts still contain a full act of God clause which seriously alleviates the risk of dry conditions, hail and any other “out of your control” threats. Getting 10bu/ac on the books at historically strong values is recommended to start putting some profit in your pocket, secure shipment windows and create bin space.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.