As of June, lentil crops are sitting much more comfortably compared to last year at this time. Most areas have seen some moisture and lentils are rated at 77% good to excellent, compared to 36% the previous year. We are still expecting StatsCan to raise the seeded acres numbers for the 2020-2021 season, but large volumes of inventory moving late this year should keep carry out down and supplies at bay; depending on our crop outcome of course. Prices haven’t changed a whole lot into this week. Red lentils are trading at 28-30 cents on a #2 for old crop, while new crop sits at 25-26 cents picked up with AOG. Large green lentils are quoted at 30 cents on a #2 with new crop at 27-28 cents on a #2 with an act of God. Old crop small green lentil trades have gone quiet with #1’s getting harder to find and being quoted at 29 cents. New crop trades at 26 cents on a #1 FOB farm with full AOG.
Feed barley is still trading at competitive values this week. As long as product is heavy and dry, we are seeing $3.90-$4.50/bu picked up on farm, with the stronger values being seen in south west Saskatchewan. If you happen to have spring threshed sitting around, we do also have buyers and just need to know the specs such as weight, moisture and excreta percentage to get you a firm bid. On the malt side, we have a buyer looking for some old crop Copeland at $4.60/bu delivered to south central Saskatchewan; picked up pricing is also available. Malt shipments this year continue to be delayed due to Covid, which is slowing down usage and therefore movement. New crop malt barley has been a little quiet as of late, with no real bids to speak of, but if you have targets in mind, we can always throw them out and see what kind of response we get back.
Before a number of locations where jolted with the rain last weekend and throughout this week, dry conditions where creating issues with crop emergence. Reports suggest this was especially the case in flax with 21% still reported in the seedling stage here in Sask. Now, with rain having fallen in a good number of locations, most areas should see these numbers pull along nicely. As it sits, new crop brown flax prices are trading around $13/bu FOB farm with an act of god, but we have seen firm targets trade at slightly higher values. Short supply continues to prop up spot brown flax and we continue to see strong pricing, up to $16/bu FOB on milling quality. As well, continue to show us spring threshed and off grade flax as they too continue to fetch attractive prices compared to past years due to tighter supplies on flax as a whole. With new crop approaching and closing the gap with old we may see buyers a little more reluctant to chase prices to much higher.
Over the last couple weeks, July canola futures have been on the rise. This morning at the time of writing, they trade at $474.40/MT. With an average basis level of say, $20/MT under, that puts spot purchases around $10.30/bu delivered to plant. The canola futures are being supported by soybean markets as of late and we hope to see continued strength across that complex. With that being said, the canola crush margins have all but dried up due to soybean oil prices and a stronger Canadian dollar. This is holding any gains to the modest side for now.
Wheat futures are mostly unchanged from last week. As US harvest progresses, market pressure will continue for the next couple of weeks. So far reports of the quality of US 2020 Hard Red Winter wheat crop is good condition with better than expected yields, but protein could be lower than average. Stress usually coincides with stronger proteins: South east Sask and West North Dakota will get more accurate protein levels into July. CWRS with 13-13.5% protein is likely to stay in the $6.00 -$7.00/bu range as far as prices go. If Russia exports are higher in 2020/2021, then we could see some rallies on price. Feed wheat prices continue to hold strong this week, with markets ranging from $5.00-$5.40/bu picked up. New crop pricing is lower, so it’s a good opportunity to move product out of the bins as movement on old crop is already pushing into August.
Canary seed has maintained its strength this week in both old and new crop markets. Old crop is being bid at 27 cents/lb FOB farm, while new crop rose slightly to 26 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG for a Sept-Dec movement period. Rising new crop pricing shows some positivity for the upcoming canary crop. It may suggest that acres haven’t increased as much as some in the industry initially expected. Add that to expected seasonal export strength of lower on farm stocks and you can see why people are getting more bullish on canary prices for the upcoming crop year.
Chickpeas maintain a steady tone this week as weather moves across the majority of western Canada. There have been a few suggested reports that there is too much moisture right now and if it continues it could affect the yield in a negative way. This has not translated in a change to values but worth mentioning. Old crop #2 Kabuli values at $0.27/lb FOB farm and new crop about the same for a delivered plant price. While there are not a lot of growers left in the country growing Frontiers there are still some bins with carry from previous year to move. Bids for small caliber come in around $0.20/lb FOB farm and no bid on new crop. Desi’s are still the silent player in chickpeas as India reports 35% higher than average monsoons to support their production. Sample and feed quality have been trading steadily at $0.12/lb with wiggle room depending on down grading factors. All eyes on the weather!
The oats market is in short supply this spring so prices remain very high for those that may still have product in the bin. Bids delivered on #2 milling oats range north of $4.50/bu still this week and buyers have said if you have product, just show them an offer. Most of the delivery locations are far out east but we can work up a price FOB farm as well. Oat acres have seen a bit of an increase from last year and the new crop prices show it, with a full buck fall off from current prices. These are still not terrible prices for oats historically as we have often seen bids on new crop struggling to catch $3/bu delivered in. Comparatively a $3.50/bu new crop price for winter 20/21 does not seem like the worst option to lock in today on a milling quality #2 Canada. Feed bids on oats still range from $2.50 to $3/bu FOB farm depending on farm location and other product specs like bushel weight.
The pea market continues to be quiet as old and new crop prices start to converge. As we head into the summer months expect markets to remain quiet as most countries will wait for new crop before making any more large purchases. If looking to move old crop peas, you can still find a home for yellow and greens, but maples and dun peas are a little harder to market right now. Yellows are trading between $7.25 to $7.50 and green peas $9.00 to $10.00/bu. New crop yellows are trading around the $7.00 mark and green peas $8.50/bu. New crop maples are sitting at $9.00/bu. All are quoted as FOB farm including AOG. The Canadian pea exports have been going mostly to China, Bangladesh and Nepal which has helped shrink our ending stocks for this year. The news of lower ending stocks should help keep prices stable.
The province has picked up some rain over the past week in mustard growing areas. Growers are reporting good starts so far in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta, which are both very heavy mustard growing areas. Besides flea beetle pressure and few areas in southern Alberta that required re-seeding, moisture has not been too much an issue so far. There are pockets of dry areas in the southwest, but generally ok. Yellow mustard remains solid at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop, as perhaps this may be a good time to book, considering the start the crops have had.
Soybean futures traded lower on uncertainty over Chinese demand. As new hog operations came online in May, the Chinese pig herd grew 3.9% from April 2020 inventories. A larger hog herd requires more soybean meal, which is great news for soybean producers as it increases the likelihood that China will increase purchases to feed the growing herd. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This is would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last years North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.
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