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Rayglen Market Comments – June 19, 2019

Soybean traders are still trying to get a handle on US farmer planting intentions. This will be a driving force behind the soybean market for the near future. A bright spot is bean planting progress in the US has taken quite a jump up to 77% complete, but still behind the average of about 95%. US corn is also still driving most North American commodity markets, which doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50 – $8.00/bu delivered plant.

Oat markets have been consistently propped up over the last few weeks. We speculate this is a result of drier weather and the uncertainty that follows, as well as tight supply. Reports of noteworthy moisture events have started to roll in this week and likely just in time for many producers. These come as a much-needed reprieve, before it was too late, and crops weren’t able bounce back. Prices on milling oats are as high as $4.05 delivered in to Manitoba. Picked up prices could range between $3.25 to $3.75 FOB depending on where your farm is located. There are still buyers looking for feed oats as well, with prices ranging from $2.50 to $3.00/bu FOB the farm. 

The canola market has run pretty much sideways the past few days, a little up, a little down. Current bids range from $9.50 to $9.85/bu depending on area and basis levels, for those looking to make some sales. The futures seeming to find resistance whenever they push up to the $460/MT mark over the past month. We will see what effect the recent rain through Sask has on crop conditions as we are hearing some ancillary reports that a lot of the unsprouted seeds sitting have popped out after finally receiving a drink from spotty rains. We are not sure if this late emergence will be a widespread phenomenon or not, but time will tell. Soybean markets will continue to influence lots of what we see in the canola market so weather conditions in the US and South America are something to keep an eye on.

Count it, 1, 2, 3 straight weeks of way above average feed wheat prices. These dry conditions and very spotty showers across the prairie provinces are feeding into these bullish figures. So, if you’re sitting on some feed wheat now maybe the time to move it before the ‘forecasted’ rain comes. Expect pricing in that $6.00 – $6.30 FOB farm across the majority of the province, with $6.50 – $6.60 FOB in SW Sask.  On the tail end of last week, we saw a spot surge on durum. Since then prices have quieted down to that $6.50ish FOB to $7.00 del into plant with new crop still clinging to $7.00. On the milling side of wheat, hard red pricing pops in at $6.90ish with a 13.5 pro delivered to plant for August. New crop feed wheat still hovers in that $5.00 – $5.20/bu FOB farm. New crop milling wheat prices remain low. Stay tuned over the upcoming week(s) to see if these prices trend up with global wheat issues; the hot and dry Black Sea, burn up in Australia, the rain in the States as well as our dry weather or in some cases the deluge of rain.

Canaryseed prices continue to trend upwards as much of the key growing areas saw very little rain to start the growing season. This week has brought some major rainfall across the prairies, but we have not seen any indication of this affecting bids. Crop ratings remain low with around 10% being classified as good to excellent and up to 40% classified as poor to very poor. Spot bids have bumped up to $0.24/lb picked up in the yard for a June/July movement. At this point new crop prices are tough to pin point, but we are taking offers in the mid 20’s cents/lb. With that said, putting up offers on old crop above the market likely is a good idea in this upward trending market.

Pricing, for the most part, remains unchanged in all pea crops. We are seeing old crop yellow peas delivered to plant in and around that $6.60 – $7.00/bu with some decent spot pricing in MB at $7.00 FOB. New crop yellow peas are pulling in $6.50 – $6.75 FOB (with the latter for further out movement) with an Act of God.  Old crop green peas are fetching around that $10.50 FOB with new crop sliding in at $8.00 FOB with an Act of God.  The much-maligned maple peas continue to be subpar in their pricing.  Is this the new normal?  Sub $8.75 old crop and new crop in that $9.00 – $9.25/bu.

Chickpeas are on the bottom of the list when it comes to exciting news. The market is unchanged for another week and current environmental and political situations don’t seem to have any effect on their status. Statistics suggest every country except Argentina and India will have significant carry over when coming into the 2019/20 harvest. While we are on track to produce less than typical yield, the global carry over is estimated to be near 1MMTS and annually the demand is 1.5MMTS. That is a fairly tight spread that does not support any spike despite anticipated reduced yield. General advice from the buy side is watch the timing of marketing. No big leaps and bounds, but over $0.25/lb in your pocket for #2 quality should be seriously considered.

Lentil markets are slow but continue to move in bits and pieces with green lentils on the forefront. Current crop medium green lentils are heavily sold, and carry is largely expected to be made up of small green and red lentils. Feel the supply of large greens is getting tight so we may see continued support through to mid-end of July. Small red lentils are still on the fence as we wait for decisive information from India on Canadian trade. Will the tariff go up as our neighbours have? Will the weather and potential lower yield effect the value given the expected carry? Globally, Russia and Kazakhstan are not very reliable for data collection, but they have tended to migrate from chickpeas and green lentils and move toward red lentils. With them as firm producers of red lentils they become a very real threat to Canadian markets. Reds are simple for them to grow and year after year they tend to flip to red acres. While green lentils are a “Made in Canada” price, red lentils are more and more global. India and Turkey should also remain on the radar as major suppliers with lower cost to table price tag. Current Markets small reds @ $0.19/LB delivered and new crop $0.18/lb FOB W/AOG. Current and new crop Richleas @ $0.18/lb FOB farm. Current and new crop large green lentils @ $0.22/lb for #2 or better FOB farm. Feed lentils @ $0.13/lb FOB farm freight sensitive.

Feed barley is flat this week. At this point, it’s a waiting game to see what the province gets for rain in the next few days and then revaluate next week. With that being said the hay crop isn’t looking so good at this point and a first cut is looking grim, let alone a 2nd cut. If the hay supply is short, that will only drive our barley prices up as feedlots will need to substitute to something else. Prices this week are sitting around $4.90-5.40/bu FOB farm depending on area and freight cost. New crop barley is sitting around $4.00-4.75/bu FOB farm with an act of God offers are a great way to catch a high in the market so make sure you are talking to your merchant on posting them.

The flax market remains strong this week, as plenty of buyers are looking for a little more product to fill positions. Recent trades at $15/bu delivered to plant have gone through on #1 quality product for those with nerves of steel that did not dump the last of their flax when the chicken hit the fan with China and canola issues. New crop prices are tradable at $12.25 to $12.50/bu range as a picked up in the yard price and that includes an act of God on the contracted tonnage covering quality and quantity. You have all heard before that at some point old crop price and new crop price need to meet; we don’t know exactly when, but we know that it’s happening. Outside factors beyond our crop conditions that can still affect the flax price include; USA flax crop, dryness in former USSR, trade with China.

Everyone is watching the weather this week, as rain showers continue throughout mustard growing regions. It is still very dry on some crops, while some have gotten much needed rain just recently. We will watch to see how this develops. New crop bids stay generally the same, with indications on full crop year yellow mustard at 35 cents/lb. We had a brown trade at 30 cents/lb, oriental (Forge/Vulcan) at 26 cents/lb, and oriental (cutlass) at 25 cents/lb.  Spot yellow mustard remains at a stable 35 cents/lb FOB farm on a #1 quality. Brown seems to hold firm with trades at 30 cents this week. Oriental continues to lag behind grower expectations at 25 cents picked up for Forge/Vulcan variety, while Cutlass carries a 2-cent discount. Some grower targets have been able to catch a quicker delivery period at above mentioned prices. New crop contracts contain full act of God and are picked up on farm.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees