Canola has entered another week with little change in market value. Old crop indications this week range from $13.30 to $13.85/bu delivered plant, depending on the area, local basis level and delivery timeframe, with no significant talk of near-future rallies. Speculation from the EU suggests production could be lower than average again this year, potentially affecting North American values. However, this remains a wait-and-see situation. Weather is also affecting Canadian growing conditions, with mid-June frost threats mixed with later-seeded canola crops due to reseeding from flea beetle pressure or poor germination. Predicting the future of the canola market is challenging, but holding onto your crop a bit longer might not be a bad move. It will be interesting to see what values do as we approach the 2024 harvest in North America.

Weather continues to be the main factor in new crop pricing for peas. The Canadian market looks favorable, but the next couple of weeks will be crucial to see if moisture continues or if the weather warms up for crop development. India is expected to remain in the market for the coming year, but local prices have pulled back, reducing imports and suggesting India’s participation could remain quiet in the short term. Old crop pricing remains similar to last week: yellows at $13/bu, greens at $16/bu, and maples at $26/bu, all picked up on the farm. New crop prices have pulled back slightly for yellows to $11/bu picked up with an Act of God clause. Green peas remain at $14/bu, while new crop maples hold steady at $20-$21/bu. All indications are quoted as FOB farm with an Act of God clause.

Flax exports to China saw higher volumes in April from Canada, although still below the 5-year average. With rains across most of Saskatchewan, reports indicate that the flax crop is in good to excellent condition. However, some areas have excess moisture and lack heat, which needs monitoring. Conversely, Russia is experiencing dry conditions, potentially resulting in lower yields at harvest. This could increase interest in Canadian flax overseas. Prices this week remain steady in the $16.50-$17.00/bu range. The buyer pool is small, and demand is quieter, with movement timeframes being pushed closer to new crop (Jul/Aug).

Oat prices remain steady with little fluctuation for another week, currently sitting in the $4.50-$5.00/bu range for summer month delivery. New crop prices are quoted at similar levels, with movement periods being pushed into the last quarter of 2024 and/or the first quarter of 2025. Continued rains across the province could lead to higher yields come harvest, though reports of excessive moisture are starting to roll in. Many growers, at this stage, has mentioned the need for some heat and sunshine to help crops progress.  If you need to move oats, but are waiting for higher values, that outlook seems distant as supply outweighs demand. If you have lower quality oats in the bin, call the Rayglen office to discuss options to free up some bin space.

The canary seed market remains active, showing vitality in both old crop and new crop values. Recent spot bids have been quoted at 45 cents per pound, picked up on the farm, but occasionally, firm offers above these values have gained traction. New crop bids are holding steady at 35 to 36 cents per pound, picked up on the farm, for the first 10 bushels with an Act of God clause. As we approach new crop harvest, it’s important to note the potential price drop into new crop values, if you have unsold product in the bin. Considering current crop conditions, it makes sense to clean out old crop at today’s values. There is also some talk of a last-minute increase in canary seed acres, potentially pushing seeded acres close to 300,000. Selling a few bushels to mitigate market risk might be a wise decision.

Following last week’s trend, chickpea acres have been planted, and while conditions are not ideal, they are currently rated better than the 10-year average. Even with excellent yields, production estimates are still in question as the acreage is yet to be accurately determined. Spot prices have dropped from last week, with bids for old crop chickpeas hovering around $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm today, though new crop bids remain at par week over week. There are still old crop bushels that need to be moved, both on contract and in the bin, leading buyers to be very cautious, purchasing only what they need. At these bid levels, feedback suggests that old crop bushels will likely remain stored, and new crop acres may expand if current prices persist.

Reports continue to indicate a decent start for mustard crops so far. However, this has not positively impacted mustard prices. Slow exports and limited demand are also contributing to declining prices. Current spot values for mustard are slipping slightly, with old crop yellow trading around 50 cents/lb, while brown and oriental varieties have now dropped into the high 30’s. Sales are limited, and some buyers are still on the sidelines. It’s essential to discuss how to capitalize in this market with your merchant, as there are still small opportunities available, and the situation is not entirely bleak. New crop prices are indicated at 52 cents/lb for yellow and in the high 30’s for brown and oriental, with full crop year shipping and an Act of God clause. New crop yellow mustard bids have occasionally traded higher on limited tonnage depending on demand, so growers may want to consider reasonable firm targets as a market strategy.

Wheat values continue to soften across the board as harvest pressure increases. The US winter wheat harvest is 27% complete, nearly double the five-year average pace. Additionally, spring wheat crop conditions are solid, with 76% rated good/excellent. Positive reports from Russia on initial harvest yields are also influencing the market. Closer to home, producers are off to a great start, with most receiving a healthy dose of moisture, setting things off on the right foot. Consequently, subdued pricing is evident, with buyer bids ranging from the low $7s to $7.80/bu delivered. Feed wheat values might be more appealing today, with bids ranging from $7.00 up to $8.00/bu in the right areas, picked up on the farm.

Soybean futures have rebounded based on a dip in crop progress reports. While there was a slight decline from the previous report, it shows an improvement year over year. US soybean planting is 93% complete, with 82% emerged, both running ahead of the long-term average. Soybean bids range from $13.50 to $13.75/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, while Australian faba production is anticipated to decline for the fourth consecutive year. New crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00 to $10.50/bu FOB farm, with feed quality values near $9.50 to $10.00/bu, depending on location. Planting delays and alternative seeding plans may tighten North American dry bean supply more than previously anticipated. This could bolster prices, with primary exports targeted towards Mexico. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids and are largely running on par.

A national barley announcement aimed at developing more climate change resilient barley varieties came just in time, as some barley-growing areas in Southern Alberta experienced snow and near-freezing temperatures in the third week of June. The Cardston area hit a record low of -0.1 degrees, while the Milk River area saw temperatures just above freezing at 1.3 degrees, breaking temperature records from 1949 and 2000, respectively. According to the June 11 crop report, 85% of Alberta’s barley had emerged, and it remains to be seen how isolated or widespread the impact of these cold temperatures will be. In Saskatchewan, as of June 10, the barley crop was rated 66% good and 21% excellent. Pricing for old crop barley remains similar to last week, at $4.90-$5.25/bu FOB farm for summer movement, heavily dependent on location. New crop prices are in a similar range with fall movement opportunities. For growers south of the border, bids are around $3.05-3.60/bu USD for those in good shipping lanes into feedlot alley.

Lentil markets are starting to feel pressure as new crop conditions look favorable. Old crop small greens are becoming harder to sell, with few buyers showing interest. For new crop, bids are ranging between 46 and 49 cents/lb with an Act of God (AOG) clause. Old crop bids for large green lentils are still available, but there are not many buyers looking for more than a load or two, with prices still in the low to mid 70 cents/lb. Interestingly, buyers are still looking for new crop acres, but movement is starting to get pushed into the new year, so those on the fence may want to act now. Red lentil new and old crop prices are beginning to converge, with new crop at 34 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG, and old crop at 35-36 cents/lb FOB farm. Red lentil shipping has slowed since April due to pressure from Australian sales and less concern from India regarding their rabi crop. Marketing thoughts for the week: 1. Consider locking in unpriced green lentils – new crop as movement is now pushed into the new year and old crop as there is uncertainty over how long current values are sustainable. 2. New crop red lentils are comparable to last year’s values and only slightly below 2022 levels, something to contemplate. Overall, the lentil market is in a state of flux, with varying degrees of buyer interest and price stability across different types and crop years. It’s crucial for producers to stay informed and consider their marketing strategies carefully.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.