Feed barley bids show signs of life this week. Old crop values now range between $6.50 – $7.00/bu at the bin for June/July shipment, with a chance product trades a touch higher on firm offer. New crop is much of the same story with average bids around $5.00/bu FOB farm, area dependant. That said, show buyers what you’re looking for by posting a firm offer if your sell point is slightly higher than current bids. With such a strong push to purchase barley in months past, we suspect carryover of old crop will be minimal which should be supportive for values. Uncontracted new crop barley coming off this Fall may experience a delayed shipping window given the amount of new crop locked in at profitable levels. Don’t miss out, get some new crop on the books, create bin space and cashflow in the Fall.
Canaryseed holds strong for another week with no signs of vulnerability. However, buyers are not reaching any higher than current posted bids, which indicates markets have found a comfortable level; for now, anyways. As we have been saying for some time, if you are interested in signing up new crop canary, sooner rather than later is best. As we inch closer to harvest, we may see the act of God clause drop out of contracts and/or buyers may decide to sit on the sidelines and wait for their contracted product to start coming in. Getting your 10bu/acre on the books at historically strong values while taking some risk of the table with the AOG clause is a market savvy move. New crop prices are still bid around $0.33/lb FOB farm in many areas. Old crop is holding at $0.35/lb FOB farm in most locations with a couple of buyers interested in purchasing. If you are looking for prompt movement, you may want to post an offer at a slightly lower value.
Slower than expected soybean planting rates and dry conditions in the US has sent soybean prices higher this morning. Continued strength in the soyoil market also lent strength to the soy complex. Emergence rates for US soybeans remain ahead of historical values for this time of year, though last week’s frost damage could bring this year’s rating closer to average in the coming weeks. Local soybean bids are reflecting buyer coverage and have slid to now hover around $15.00/bu picked up depending on location. Buyers are encouraging any reasonable offer to be brought forward rather than a posting a standing bid. The faba market remains well supported, with old crop feed values trading at $8.50/bu picked up. Dry beans are experiencing solid demand South of the border, with exports being more subdued in Canada. This has buoyed US old crop values and, to an extent, Canadian values as well. New crop appears to have solid pricing prospects largely due to a reduction in seeded acres.
Chickpea markets chew on statistics this week and how they will affect the value in the upcoming marketing year. Given the predicted reduction in acres and using an estimate possible yield, North America could see a 17% reduction in chickpea production from last year. Most of that reduction would be realized in Canadian acres vs US as the US stats show little to no decline in chickpea acres over last year. Turkey is also reporting a decline over last year by about 14%. Locals believe this is understated as dry conditions have impacted production yields and it is expected this stat will change. Current crop bids are steady from last week and we believe opportunity exists for reasonable targets to lead to a trade. New crop remains the same as last week with bids around $0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG. There is less wiggle room for upward movement on new crop for the time being. Best advice is to know what is in your bin. Check your bin tops for downgrading factors, get a true sample and be ready for marketing opportunities.
The pea market is showing some strength in value and demand this week. Yellow values have perked back up while green pea pricing remains stable, but we are seeing more demand generally. Exports have been slow, as per reports, but this is normal for late in the season. Current pricing on yellow peas is posted at $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm now, while new crop is trading up to $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Green pea pricing hasn’t changed too much, but increased demand is being seen, which could mean stronger pricing in the near term. Currently, bids are still indicated at $9.00/bu FOB, with grower targets hitting the system at $9.50-$10.00/bu FOB farm. New crop greens are still bid at $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Lastly, maple peas are indicated at $9.50/bu FOB for both old and new crop, with the chance for a slight premium on Acer variety.
As seeding begins to wrap up, we see the majority of wheat acres already in the ground. Extreme heat conditions will be felt through much of the province this week, but forecasts of rain to follow in some areas should help ease the heat stress. This week the milling wheat markets have shown a bump up in price with #1, 13.5% protein trading around $9.50 to $9.60/bu delivered to plant for July/Aug. movement. There are small discounts for 12.5% protein milling wheat, so please call if you fall within those specs. The durum market has been quietly trading around $9.00/FOB in the Southeastern part of Saskatchewan with values softening as you move North and West. Feed wheat markets took a step towards levels comparable with a few weeks ago. Bids are once again coming in at $8.00-$8.50/bu FOB farm in many locations with a slight variance under $8/bu in the “worst” freight areas. If you’re looking for the most current and up to date prices in your area, please contact your Rayglen merchant.
Mustard prices see continued strength on both new and old crop fronts. Current bids are showing new and old crop yellow mustard at $0.50/lb FOB farm. Oriental bids have firmed up to $0.35/lb on all varieties of late and for those that have been on the sidelines waiting for cutlass type to catch up to forge, the time seems to be now. New crop and old crop brown bids are showing $0.41/lb to possibly $0.42/lb in the yard on firm targets. As always new crop contracts on mustard are for approximately 10 bushels per acre and include an act of God. If you are looking for a home on a partial load that you have been sitting on for a while, now is likely the time as freight discounts remain fairly nominal based on the current values and buyers will happily look to pick up a partial load.
Old crop milling oat bids are hit and miss as many buyers are close to or are completely covered until new crop. Hence, price points are soft with #2 milling bids sitting around that $3.75/bu picked up on farm, depending on farm location. Fast forward a couple months to new crop and pricing indications in central Sask. sit around $3.75/bu for the last quarter of 2021, $4/bu for J/F/M and $4.30 for Apr-Aug. Please connect with your merchant for firm pricing at your farm. On the feed side, buyers are looking for product, but knowing your weight is key. A good heavy feed oat looks to price in around that $3.50/bu range.
Over the past week we have seen canola futures advance higher. This comes after a few weeks of consistent losses, dropping values well below their yearly highs. July futures currently sit at $899/MT, up from $873/MT last week. November futures, the month most physical canola buyers are using for pricing, are sitting at $745/MT. At this time last week, we were seeing $694/MT, so quite a large jump over the past 7 days. These gains come despite a drop in canola oil crush margins, which are still very high compared to historical values. Other factors contributing to the gains across the board are strength in soybeans and forecasted intense heat across the Prairies later this week.
Flax prices are sideways again this week with $23.00/bu FOB farm still attainable on old crop. New crop bids remain stable as well, but vary depending on movement, with upwards of $17.00/bu picked up including an act of God still achievable. Recent rains have provided some moisture relief, but with unseasonal heat this week, it could be a concern for those in drier areas. Old crop demand is quieter as buyers wait for new crop. New crop prices are likely to remain firm as there will be a slim carry-over of Canadian flax. Some analysts report the Chinese flax crop for 2020/21 has dropped by 30%. If Chinese production increases for this growing season, we could see less demand for 2021/22. This along with the prospect of a larger Black Sea crop means there could be some volatility in prices. Having 10bu/acre on the books at $17.00/bu FOB, or higher, takes some risk off the table.
The lentil markets are messy right now to say the least. Prices seem to be all over the place with buyers seeming more interested in where the competition is priced than actually buying lentils. The market is filled with lots of speculation at the moment ranging from ending stocks in all the major players cupboards, questions surrounding the India tariff, crop conditions in Canada & Australia and destination sales. This is causing the markets to be very unsettled. For example, new crop reds with an AOG range from $0.30/lb FOB farm to as high as $0.33/lb delivered plant. Large green lentils tell the same story with a 3-cent range in old crop bids and a 2-cent range in new crop bids between different companies. Markets will likely stay this way for the next few weeks as we wait on the major players to really come to the table instead of buying hand to mouth to fill their needs.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.