Despite adverse weather conditions, the feel for the chickpea market today is that production will be average. A few timely rains could quickly shift things in the other direction, just the same way a lack of moisture could take expectations below average. US acres are seeing large areas of extreme dryness and there is more concern on their production at this point due to large areas seeded to chickpeas. The market thus far has not postured one way or the other. Old crop/new crop values have come together at $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm and sample/feed grade are at a high of $0.22/lb FOB farm depending on the down grading factors. Really, all eyes are directed to the weather and the anticipation of overseas markets opening up. The next 2 weeks will be essential in how the production plays out congruent with weather.
A slight change in canaryseed pricing this week as old crop bids drop to 33.5 cents/lb delivered FOB, with new crop values holding firm at 33.5cents/lb delivered including an act of God. Look to see old and new crop values hold firm with minimal stock on farm and with what looks to be an average crop on hand right now. Couple that with Canadian and Argentinian acreage pegged to decrease and we should continue to see supported values. One other piece of the puzzle to take a look at is the steady decrease in production and supply the last couple years with India’s Niger seed crop, which has pushed values up this year. So far, all signs are pointing to a strong pricing year for canary. A typical harvest pricing decrease may not be the case this year!
After some widespread rain recently, blistering heat and gale force winds have pretty well taken care of any excess moisture according to most producer reports. More timely rains are needed to get that bumper crop that producers are looking for. Despite the lack of moisture, the barley market has certainly come down over the last little while. Prices have been bouncing between $6.00 to $6.50/bu FOB farm depending on area, with the latter tougher to come by outside of the freight hotspots. Of course, the closer you are to feedlot alley the better the price usually is. Buyers are not showing the aggressive demand they once were, likely due to the fact that new crop is just around the corner. New crop prices for Sept.-Dec. movement remain strong though and have been trading between $5-$5.50/bu FOB farm.
Wheat markets seem to have flatlined this week, with much of the demand being pushed into new crop. It seems taking a “daily watch” approach to markets is the way to go, as the odd spike in values does pop up. One of those recent spikes has a high protein HRS milling wheat at $9.00/bu FOB farm, but demand quantity is light, and bids are very area specific. There is still production contract availability out there in the $8.50 – $8.75/bu range for early Winter movement. The feed market and value are much the same, but prices seem to be falling this week here. To get an accurate value call in and share what you have! Milling durum buyers are still showing interested in SE Sask. product, with trades happening around that $9.00/bu FOB farm price for July – August 2021. New crop values seem to be a touch higher at the $9.20 – $9.75/bu range; the longer you’re willing to sit on it, the higher the value will be. Should these contracts fill, we don’t expect to see similar values or delivery periods available come harvest. If storage, or cash flow is appealing to you, these are great starting points to make sales.
Weather forecasts continue to have a strong influence on the market. The US Midwest is anticipated to receive some degree of rain from Wednesday to Saturday. How that all plays out is always the big question. So, we see modest market activity until the weather outcome is known. Soybean buyer demand is behaving similarly. Bids are muted and buyers are asking for firm offers from sellers. Old crop fabas are trading between $8.50-$9.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop #2 export quality fabas are hovering right around $8.50/bu FOB farm. Reduced dry bean acres both North and South of the border are expected to be confirmed in the coming week. Markets remain well supported predicated on export demand. Many are wondering when or if poor crop condition ratings will begin to factor into local price.
During the Summer months we typically see a slip in pricing as buyers anticipate the coming of new crop supply and this currently seems to be the case for peas. Yellow peas pulled off their highs from last week, down to $9.00–9.50/bu FOB, while green peas see values at similar levels with limited demand. The majority of new crop bids on yellows and greens are coming in at $9.00/bu FOB, however there may be a chance to capture $9.50/bu on a small new crop green pea program in Central Sask. Crop rating reports peg the Saskatchewan pea crop at 80% good to excellent. It still looks like supplies will be tighter heading into the next marketing year, unless next week’s StatsCan report increases acres drastically (which is not expected). Maple peas also remain quiet as old crop is priced at $9 – $9.50/bu FOB and new crop at $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God.
Flax prices remain sideways this week with old crop just barely hanging on to $23.00/bu picked up. New crop remains strong with prices ranging anywhere from $18-$18.50/bu FOB with an act of God. Deliveries on flax are below average for this time of year but supplies are running low so that doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Exports in from the Black Sea region have been above average in March and April suggesting there is still available supply overseas. That said, there remains uncertainty pertaining to new crop flax reports coming out of the Black Sea region. It will likely take a few months before we receive actual confirmation, but if the acres are higher as originally reported, then we could see Canadian prices level off or even dip lower.
There remains little to no talk surrounding the oat market for another week. Spot purchases have moved to the back burner as most buyers are covered well into new crop and focus has shifted to purchasing for 2022. Grower reports on cereals are mixed, oats included, as the heat wave eliminates much of the available moisture in many areas. There isn’t much for prompt movement on milling oats, but every once in a while, we do see short lived programs pop up and we urge growers to take advantage of our target system to capture these opportunities. Feed buyers are still looking for product, but bushel weight must be up. Light weight product does not seem to be catching any interest. New crop milling oat bids sit around $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight cost and delivery window. Deferred shipment into 2022 will capture your highest values. If you have product in the bin that you need to move before harvest, reach out to us to discuss some possible options.
November canola futures are rebounding this week after a tough end to last week. An expected wave of heat throughout the Prairies as well as a lack of any significant moisture in the nearby forecasts is lending support in prices. Many areas in the Prairies are approaching the point where the crop may start backtracking without a significant rain and this is something we will continue to keep an eye on. November futures currently sit at $729/MT while the further out January futures are just slightly lower at $728/MT. Basis levels for new crop months are still holding strong in many areas so as we see these bumps in the futures markets, there may be some excellent opportunities to lock in a portion of your crop and secure a profit.
Lentils continue to lose steam as we near the end of the 2020/21 crop year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still profitable opportunities available. The trade is starting to focus more attention on new crop, but strong bids are still being seen for spot purchases. Old crop reds still have bids indicated at $0.31-$0.32/lb FOB, while old crop large greens now trade between $0.33-$0.35/lb FOB farm. Small green lentils are in light trade, but indications still roll in around $0.30-$0.31/lb and we have seen some renewed interest from a few buyers on French green lentils. Farmer reports across the majority of the Prairies suggest lentils crops are in okay condition now but will need moisture soon. There are a few areas that are struggling, especially South of the border, and we will keep a close eye on how things progress over next seven to ten days. A widespread rain even would alleviate much of the concern, but if the heat continues crops could regress.
The mustard market remains fairly strong this week. This is a bit surprising as we have witnessed serious pullbacks in many other commodities, but fortunately, mustard is hanging in there firmly. We are monitoring the moisture situation in a few areas as heat and wind remains a concern. Yellow mustard is right around $0.48 to $0.50/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop. Brown mustard sits at $0.41 to possibly $0.42/lb for old crop and $0.40 on new crop. Oriental mustard is still being bid at $0.35/lb FOB farm for Forge & Vulcan varieties, with a slight discount to $0.33/lb FOB farm on Cutlass for both old and new crop. All new crop contracts include an AOG on 10 bu/acre. If you have a partial load in the bin don’t be worried as we have a number of buyers willing to make the freight work at these top prices.
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