Canola took a little dip in price the last few days but has s rebounded quite nicely this morning. As we write, July futures sit at $474.20/MT. This puts spot bids on canola around $10.33/bu delivered assuming a $20/MT under basis level. Recently, depending on delivery location, basis levels do fluctuate quite drastically so it’s best to call the office to get a firm delivered or FOB farm bid. The Canadian and USA acreage reports will be coming out next week and will be watched very carefully. The canola market will most likely follow the direction of soybean markets as it usually does, so keep an eye on those reports to offer some direction to canola. There has been technical resistance at canola trading over $480.00/MT.
Large green lentils got some renewed interest over the past couple of days, as buyers try to fill #2 quality orders. Bids as high as 32 cents FOB farm were seen and may still trade today on firm offer. As for other grades, we haven’t seen a lot of action, but X3 were trading around 24 cents FOB farm. New crop large greens still trading 30 cents for #1 and 28 for a #2 with an act of God. Buyers are still looking for new and old crop small green lentils as well, and spot reds continue to trade around the 30-cent mark. New crop reds remain bid at 25 to 26 cents with an Act of God. As we head into July lentil crops, for the most, part look good. A few concerns have popped up that disease may become an issue the crop doesn’t see some heat to dry things out, but generally things look good. Next week the seeded acreage report will be released, and this will give us a better idea of how many lentils went into the ground and how much of each variety. Feeling is that due to the late shipping frenzy that ending stocks will be lower than expected which will be the counterbalance to an increase in seeded acres, therefor, price should remain stable.
Wheat reports are a bit of a mixed bag all around. US spring wheat conditions dropped to 75% good to excellent with North Dakota dropping to 69% good to excellent as they’re having issues with heat stress. In Canada, 65% of the crop is fine with a 25%/10% split between dry and moist conditions. In the meantime, Russia looks to pummel the market with product as cheap as they can to move their accumulating stash. Last but not least, let’s not forget Australia, who is anticipating stronger yields after being out of the mix the last couple of years. So, how does this translate to pricing? Well, new crop values are weak which is pretty standard for this time of year anyhow. Old crop 12.5% – 13.5% pro HRSW prices range from $6.15 – $6.50/bu delivered into plant with Aug movement, though, most are looking for as close to $7 as they can get. On the feed side, wheat continues to hold its own at $5.00 – $5.45/bu FOB farm even with pressure from corn.
Flax exports remain strong, which will mean minimal supplies of carry-over into the 2020 crop year. Both StatsCan and USDA reports come out next week. Although North American supplies are forecasted to be tight going into the 2020 crop year, the global market is not in panic mode. The Black Sea region is once again expected to have a fair-sized crop that will fill more European and Chinese demand. Crop conditions in the Kazakh growing regions have been favorable. There have been reports of Saskatchewan flax crop conditions declining over the last couple of weeks. It is still early in the season and rebounds are possible, but it just means moderate acreage for 2020. The highs in flax prices we have seen over the last month are starting to shift towards new crop bids. If you still have flax in the bin you need to move this summer, there is still room available.
A bit of bullish news for chickpeas growers as producers are reporting both drier than usual conditions – which makes for smaller caliber chickpeas and low yield – and wet conditions in pockets of the province which can make way for disease. In addition, both Canada and the US reported drastic reduction in chickpea acres ranging from 30-35%. Those two points combined could shed new light on the chickpea markets. In bearish news, Mexico reported a slightly higher than 5-year average yield on their harvest and Russia continues to pump out chickpeas at the pace to set records for the 2019/20 year. Also, you’ve heard it before, there is still a large carry to chew through before we see any big change. Watch for occasional bumps if you are in a position where you need to make space or set a target to show the buyers your hard line. Expect more clarity on the Canadian acres with next weeks Statscan report.
The pea market has been much quieter in the past couple weeks. Green pea spot prices are trading still around $11/bu as a delivered to plant price on #2 quality with low bleach. Finding bids on higher bleach product is tougher right now as the trades are few and far between so the blending capacity is just not much of an option these days. Fall prices on green peas are around $8.50/bu at this time. New and old crop yellow peas have come a little closer to lining up this week and bids are generally around $7.00/bu. Old crop is still catching the occasional $7.50/bu number out there, so make sure you have your targets in. We have had a bit of maple pea interest from sellers trying to clear some bin space with grower targets at $9/bu, but most buyer bids closer to $8.50/bu. Overall crop looks pretty good at this time, a few areas need some dry weather and a few areas need some rain, but you see that contrast every year.
Feed barley values are holding their strength this week. For heavy and dry barley, prices range between $4.10-$4.50/bu FOB farm with options still available for July movement. Much of the barley is heading west into Alberta so, pricing is best the closer you’re located to southern Alberta. Bids for tough and light product are available based on discount schedules we can provide before booking. For malt barley, we have a buyer still looking for some old crop Copeland at $4.60/bu delivered to the plant in south central Saskatchewan. This could be a good option for anyone close by.
The old crop oats market has stayed strong due to a shortage of high-quality milling oats on farm. If you do have some #2 oats in the bin, opportunities exist as high as $4.50/bu for delivery into Manitoba. Freight can always be worked back for a price picked up on your farm. With acres increasing, we have a seen a big price drop for new crop milling oats, which falls in line with more average pricing at around $3.50/bu delivered to plant. For heavy and dry feed oats, values range from $2.60-$3.00/bu FOB farm depending on location. Pricing is best the closer you are to southern Manitoba.
We have been going strong on calling growers on contracted mustard acres. The reports are generally good, but there are some trouble spots where flea beetles and dry conditions have really hurt the germination. Canola and mustard, of course, are reporting the same results in these areas. The good news is, there are not too many and lots of growers seem pleased with the starts of their mustard crops. Yellow mustard remains solid at 37 to 38 cents for spot and new crop. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop, as perhaps this may be a good time to book, considering the start the crops have had.
The USDA indicated that pointed comments from the White House and an increasingly shaky trade deal motivated China to purchase 4.8 million bushels of 2020/21 soybeans from the United States yesterday. It is speculated that China has been the unidentified buyer who last month bought 21.0 million bushels of 2019/20 soybeans and 81.1 million bushels of 2020/21 of US origin soybeans. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This is would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.
Old crop canary seed continues to trade sideways again this week at 27-28c/lb picked up on farm with movement ranging anywhere from July – Sept. New crop prices are sitting at 26c/lb picked up on farm with and Act of God for Sept- Dec movement. With very tight ending stocks we should see old and new crop numbers stay somewhat steady and soon merge moving forward. Seeding is wrapped up, so now we turn and keeping eyes on the sky to see how yields turn out.
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