Submit Your Grain Offer

Rayglen Market Comments June 27, 2019

StatsCan acreage estimates on flax came out at 9.4% increase, however, the industry feels that number is low. Much of the prairies has seen some moisture over the last couple of weeks, which has helped the crop significantly and positive grower reports are flowing in. Acres in the US have also increased, some reports suggest up to 70%, although we are unsure if this number is accurate. Flax acres in the Black Sea region are reduced and conditions are not looking favorable, but it is too early to write anything off. Flax bids hold strong again this week, but export demand is keeping a lid on Canadian prices. Some buyers will wait until new crop product comes off before making new sales as they wont risk being caught short. You can still catch $14.00/bu or better on old crop flax, while new crop still hovers around $12.00-$12.50 /bu picked up.

StatsCan seeded acre estimates came out this week and it is no shock that all pea acres are up around 20%. The bulk of this increase came from green peas, up 35% and other classes going up 42%. Somewhat surprisingly yellow pea acres were also estimated up over 15%. Moisture levels were lacking, but as of last week, many areas seen some sort of rain event, just in time to turn a good number of crops around. Looking at new crop pricing, yellow peas haven’t moved much from $6.50/bu FOB. India’s buying potential is still up in the air and has buyers reluctant to book a large amount of new crop acres. Green peas are sitting at $8.00/bu FOB and maple peas have potential at $9.50/bu FOB depending on variety and location. If you have yellow peas left in the bin, bids are at $7.00/bu delivered.

In chickpea news, India has been experiencing poor monsoon forecasts, which in turn has spun rumors that their government may review their limit on pea restrictions. This could congruently support chickpea market, but in the deferred months as opposed to nearby as they are sitting on a large stockpile that the Indian government is trickling out in order to control consumer prices today. All things considered the market feels fragile and could potentially open, but for now it continues to be a waiting game. Old Crop prices coming in at $0.23-$0.24/lb FOB farm and new crop at $0.25-$0.26/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Feed chickpeas have little to no support as the feed market has over bought in the last 12 months and need to eat through their supply. Feed bids at $0.12-$0.14/lb FOB farm. Desi chickpeas compete with Australia and if we compare their markets to a Canadian equivalent we would be paying sub $0.20/lb. Their seeding is either wrapping up or complete, so it will be a market to keep an eye on as we get through the summer months

Barley prices have softened a bit his week as moisture alleviates the pressure on feed markets. After widespread and much needed rain, growers have “found” and moved feed wheat, which covers some of the immediate feed need and relieves the urge for barley. The large increase in barley acres is also on the forefront of buyers’ minds, which, paired with timely rain, could produce a large crop. A few things to keep in mind as reports of thin cereal crops, poor hay crops and a projected shortage in US corn production, could keep feed markets on track so a lot of balls are in the air as we wait to see how the all fall.  Prices today are between $5-5.40/bu, and new crop bids are $4.25-4.75/bu with act of God, depending on movement timeline and freight costs.

Soybean market participants are positioning cautiously before Friday’s USDA acreage report. The big story will be US corn and it will thus overshadow soybeans. Given that the survey for Friday’s report was conducted in the first two weeks of June it’s expected that revisions will come in subsequent reports. That said, the trade is expecting a humble decrease in soybean seeded acres to 84M acres from the March 84.6M acres. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Stats Canada reported faba acres down 18% from last year to 64,000 acres. This raised a few eyebrows with faba traders who have been anticipating a year over year increase. General consensus is that the faba number contains a large degree of statistical error. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Canadian dry bean seeded acres were increased modestly with white beans carrying the largest year over increase.

Low supplies of oats paired with higher pricing has analysts estimating acres higher than expected. The StatsCan report that came out yesterday had oat acres forecasted at 3.6 million, up from the 3.2 million that was estimated back in April. Although, acres were larger, the Chicago oat futures hadn’t shown any negative effects in pricing as of today. For old crop, we still have buyers looking at $3.75-$4.10/bu delivered on a milling quality and feed oats at $2.50-2.75/bu FOB. New crop values haven’t fluctuated much over the past two weeks; October to December movement is being contracted at $3.30/bu delivered with later movement options available as well.

The Canola market has had a pretty rough past 7 or so days with the July futures coming down from $455/mt range to $441/mt. Most of the trade will be rolling into the November trade month now which does have a $10/mt premium on the July, but still posted similar declines. Current bids work out to $9.50 picked up in the yard in the south east corner of Sask and a similar number as a delivered to plant price in many other areas. Trade issues with a certain country that we will not name right now (rhymes with Try-na) is the leading cause of market weakness whereas reports of less than stellar oilseed crops in western Canada are not causing too much of a stir so far. Fall basis levels are a bit better in some areas as some in the trade are less comfortable with carryout numbers and crop conditions.

All signs continue to point towards strength in the canaryseed market moving forward. StatsCan is reporting acres are down roughly 11%, although with such a small sample size we should expect some variance in there. Acreage news, combined with what is sounding like a below average crop, could see prices rise above the consistent values we have been trading at over the past two years. Current spot contracts are trading at $0.24/lb FOB farm around Saskatchewan for a July movement. New crop contracts continue to sit at $0.23/lb FOB farm for a Sept-Dec movement and full AOG. We always like to hear what your targets are so let us know if you’d like to aim a bit higher than the current market.

The seeded area estimate report came out this week stating that lentils will see a slight increase from 2018. The breakdown is interesting; red acres jumped by 14% over 2018, large green lentils dropped by 19%, small greens dropped by 5% and all other lentils dropped by 25%. The other lentils would include French green, Beluga and Spanish brown lentils.  The reported seed acres numbers as well as the recent rains have caused the prices to slip a little. Old and new crop lentils have lost a cent since this time last week. If the forecasted rain for this weekend materializes expect lentil prices to continue to drop over the next few weeks, especially on reds due to the increased in acres and remaining stock. Large greens may remain more stable due to the decrease in acres and that old crop greens do not hold their grade that well from the previous year. With everything being reported this week some producers are taking advantage of today’s new crop pricing.  

Well, the rain finally made it to most places across the prairies and farmers are sighing a bit of relief. With that we’ve seen our spot feed price slip and slide down to hover around that $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm; still a solid number. So, if you’re holding on to some remaining stock, now might be a good time to look at letting it go before the bottom drops out. Old crop durum is holding steady, around $7.00/bu delivered to plant. However, if you’re looking for FOB farm pricing on durum, it’s best to give your Rayglen agent a call. Milling wheat remains in and around that $6.80/bu delivered to plant with 13.5% protein for August. Looking further ahead, new crop feed wheat pricing is sitting at $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB farm and durum is holding steady at $7.00/bu. There still isn’t much to get excited about in regard to new crop milling wheat though. We may see that change in the upcoming weeks as the StatsCan report came out and there was a bit of a surprise regarding the wheat. It showed that wheat acres have decreased by 1.1 million with the biggest hit coming to the durum market, due in large part to its lighter demand. Overall, with decreased Canadian acres and our neighbors to the south having their own weather debacles, we may see wheat prices start to inch up over the coming weeks.

 The talk of the town this week has been the rains received over many mustard growing areas. As we all know oilseeds have been struggling due to drought and mustard was no exception. Now we watch and see how this crop does in light of recent, significant rains. New crop bids are at the similar levels as last week; with indications on full crop year yellow mustard slightly up, at 36 cents/lb, we have seen brown trade at 30 cents/lb, oriental (Forge/Vulcan) at 26 cents/lb, and oriental (cutlass) at 25 cents/lb.  Spot yellow mustard remains at a stable 35 cents/lb FOB farm on a #1 quality. Brown seems to hold firm with trades at 30 cents this week. Oriental continues to lag behind grower expectations at 25 cents picked up for Forge/Vulcan variety, while Cutlass carries a 2-cent discount. New crop contracts contain full act of God and are picked up on farm and we are always open to offers for different movement periods.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees