Stat Can is reporting and increase in wheat acres other than Winter wheat, which is slightly down from 2017. Durum went from 5.2 mil acres to 6.18 mil and CWRS from 15.8 mil acres to 17.29 mil. Total seeded acres estimated at 24.7 MMT up from 22.3 MMT in 2017. The weather continues and be sporadic, but supportive of average crop production, which does not encourage an upside in prices. Milling Quality CWRS delivered price of #1 13% pro in the nearby at $6.60/bus and showing a slight carry in Aug at $6.70/bus. Durum showed no strength this week @ $7.50/bus in the nearby and new crop closer to $7.15/bus. Feed wheat valued at $5.50 in most areas depending on freight.
Flax prices are sideways to flat this week, around $12.25/bu picked up. New Crop prices are indicating the same. Reports from a week ago are rating the crop as average in Saskatchewan as moisture levels vary across the province. Alberta reports the flax at 72% good or excellent. The US crop is also rated better than last year. Shipments of flax in the last couple of weeks have been above average. Production in the Black Sea region is also forecasted to be up since last year. However, the crop is viewed with caution due to the late start of seeding. Acres in Russia are estimated to be up by 15% as well. The growing conditions in Canada and the US has turned the flax bids lower from where they were a month ago. The US will still need imports from Canada and if Chinese demand picks up, the market prices could turn higher. There is still a lot unknown on overseas crops as well.
Stat Can released seed acreage report came out this morning and lentils show a reduction of 639,000 acres; reds look to be reduced by 938,100, but large green acres are increased by 256,000 and small greens in creased by 10,000. These numbers are for all of western Canada. Saskatchewan numbers show reds be reduced by 851,000 acres, large greens increased by 236,000 acres and small greens up 32,000 acres. What does this mean for the markets? Reds will remain depressed as inventories are still larger than demand. Based on a 10/bus acre and 2,036,900 acres in Alberta and Saskatchewan approximately 0.5 million tonnes will be produced. This is will help somewhat, but there is still going to be large ending stocks to deal with, which will keep lentils bearish for the short term. Large green markets will likely see more pressure in the following days once trade gets their heads fully wrapped around the newest numbers.
The chickpea market remains very quiet on the selling side. Old crop is all cleaned out and the new crop has some ways to go before it hits the bin. New crop prices are a little all over the map with bids on across the board on sizing and also options that are dependent on sizing in the fall. If you want to get your name on some new crop acres we can shake the trees to try and find the best program available. Reports on the Chickpeas in the ground are mostly positive so far, but a caveat on moisture puts an ominous tone to the potential of this crop. Time will tell if the rains come on a “just in time” supply schedule or if we will see some setbacks.
The new Statscan report was just released, putting the Sask and Alberta totals at 497,000 acres this year for all 3 main classes. As we all know this is up quite a bit from the 385,000 posted last year and shows a large increase in brown mustard acres. Its early yet, but no reaction from the trade thus far, as this is likely pretty much in line with expectations. There may be some issues with crop conditions in some areas, as early germination was poor, but nothing yet to move the market. Old crop sales have still been happening for possible July movement. It might be a good time to get some old crop moved for July and August and get new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around mid- high 30’s and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. If these prices don’t suit you today, call your merchant with some offers if you have a target in mind. This is a great way to show your mustard to various buyers.
As we move into July we see a slight softening on pea values despite Stat Can reported 400k acre reduction for 2018. In addition, Stat Can reported pea movement is down this year to 1.75 MMT compared to 3.23 MMT from this time last year, which would support the decline in current and new crop prices. There have been occasional “pop up” markets for yellow peas @ $6.50/bus FOB, but sentiment is “fill and kill” on a case by case basis. Green pea values down this week as we inch closer to harvest and see continued rain events throughout Sk. India is still putting Canadian production on the shelf, which is not helping market confidence. Current average pea values are GP at $8.15/bus and YP at $6.25/bus.
Feed barley this week has seen another setback in the market. Timely rains have been helping the barley crop come along very nicely, which in turn doesn’t put much fear of the chance of not having enough supply. We are about 4-6 weeks away from harvesting barley so the rains are important to finish the crop off strong and get big yields. If you have old crop in the bin and want it gone before harvest, getting it booked sooner than later is key right now before the new crop barely comes off and so do prices. Old crop barley right now is sitting around $4-4.35/bu FOB farm, and new crop barley is $3.50-3.75/bu FOB farm. Offers are a great way to show buyers what you have so make sure you are talking to your merchant on that.
It is very quiet in the oat market this week and quite frankly it has been slow for months now. Farmers in Canada have reported seeding around 3.1 million acres of oats, which is down 4.6% from 2017. The seeded Saskatchewan acres are down 15.4% to 1.4 million acres, but Alberta they have reported seeding 795,000 acres, which is up 15.2% from the 2017 crop year. Prices have been around the $2.50 FOB range on a good quality 2CW Oat. Feed oat bids are still available and are dependent on area; please call the office for a bid FOB farm.
Canola is marginally down in reaction to Stat Can’s seeded acreage report. Stat Can pegged canola acres nearly 1.5 mil higher this morning since the last report in April. Despite what seems like a large increase, most in the industry had expected a flawed April estimate and that actual seeded acres would be higher; thus, markets should remain fairly stable. We may see some quick reactions to the report in the near future, but these are not likely to be long term, more so just market blips. As we approach July, trading futures have now moved to the month of November, which currently sits at $510/MT Friday morning. New crop basis levels remain stable at $25-40/MT under. For a bid FOB your farm, please call the office. As always, if you have a target in mind, call to put in your firm offer!
The canary seed market has essentially gone into dormancy as we near the new crop year. Bids are holding steady at $0.21/lb picked up in the yard for old crop and new crop contracts. The Stat Can acreage report for June was released this morning and they have acres pegged at 212 000, down from the April estimate of 223 000. With that being said, these numbers are almost always higher once we get the actual data. You can expect it to be at least somewhat higher than this. Since not very much of the 2018 crop has been contracted, we may see some more aggressive bidding show up in the new crop year.
Soybean markets have seen some early gains in the futures market today. Today marks the release of the June USDA acreage and stocks report. Generally speaking, this report has had a history of surprises. Despite early positive moves, soybeans remain technically oversold, due largely to the impact of trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs. USDA released is 2018 planted acres estimate at 89.6 million, which is down 1%. From a grain stocks standpoint, things have all gotten heavier. Soybeans stored in all positions are up 26 percent year-over-year to 1.22 billion bushels, with the largest stocks holders being off-farm in commercial hands. A bright spot was the increased recent disappearance, which was up 17 percent from the same period last year. Spot soybean bids have slid and now hover in the range of $9.70/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.
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