Barley markets continue to take a step back in pricing as we push closer to the 2022 harvest. Although the price has come off a bit, it continues to boast a very decent sell range in the long run. Indications of $7.50 up to $7.75/bu depending on freight cost, location, and time frame of delivery seem to be the deciding factors. Old crop and new crop values don’t come with much of a spread at the moment and should the prairies be lucky enough to keep catching these rains, we don’t expect this price to take a run up anytime soon. Malt values remain skittish to date, leaving your best option to call in with what you have for tonnage and quality, and let us find you some options for both old and new crop. If mother nature continues to cooperate as we push further into the summer months, it seems like the best move is to get something on the books at a higher value now rather than wait for softer bids as we near harvest.
Pea markets seem to have fully adopted the theme of declining values this week. Each day the old crop market seems to soften a bit more as new crop gets closer to the bin, and rains hit many areas. Old crop yellow peas are priced around $15.00/bu, while old crop green peas are down to $13.00/bu, both picked up on farm. There seems to be little interest coming from importers at the moment. New crop, however, still seems to be holding in there with yellows and green peas at $13.50 – 14.00/bu picked up with an act of God. It is looking like Russian peas will be quite competitive with Canadian peas into China for new crop as their offers are cheaper than ours, as per reports. We will just have to wait and see if any quality issues arise with the Russian peas. If not, this could cause some issues for Canada. Maple peas remain quiet, with old crop at $15.00/bu and new crop around $14.00/bu.
Flax markets remain mostly unchanged from last week with old crop hovering around $31.00/bu while new crop is hit and miss at $30.00/bu, picked up with act of God. We suspect old crop prices will be merging to new crop sooner than later, so growers are encouraged to make some sales while spot bids are inflated. Now that seeding is over, there has been some more movement of flax, but at small volumes, mostly going to the US. Reports out of the Kazakhstan region indicate conditions for their flax crop have stabilized due to sporadic rains, and analysts expect at most, average yields. Small quantities of flax were shipped to China over the last year however, Canadian flax prices were too competitive compared to Russian flax prices. We could see that market recover now that bids have moved down in recent weeks. With the US crop looking decent, we are likely to see demand across the border decline in 2022/23.
Soybean markets are up based on an expected cut to 2022 US soybean acres in tomorrow’s USDA report. Overall, energy markets have also offered strength to the soy complex. Local bids are location dependent and range from $18.50-$19.50/bu FOB farm. Over the coming months, it is expected that statistical organizations will report the decrease in dry bean planted acres both north and south of the border. Reduced planted acres, a smaller 2021 crop, and measured farmer selling are expected to be supportive factors for dry bean prices. Global crop production prospects are putting a bit of a damper on faba bids. It is expected that Australia will produce a year over year smaller faba crop, but it should still exceed their 10-year average. Domestic prices continue to take direction from the pea market. New crop faba bids showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and old crop #2 grades are drifting lower akin to yellow pea bids.
The canola market is taking direction from a few sources. A forecast cut in soybean planted acres has reversed earlier softness caused by a generally favorable weather forecast for most canola growing zones. Statistics Canada will release seeded acreage numbers on July 5. It is not uncommon to see traders “ride the pine” when a national holiday falls near a new report, as will be the case on both sides of the border. Old crop values appear to be converging towards new crop values. Old crop is now bid in the range of $20.75-$21.00/bu picked up and new crop is valued between $19.50-$19.75 picked up.
General declines in the futures market (albeit up today) have softened and in some cases eliminated oat bids over the past week. Buyers start to pull back as growing conditions improve across many key areas, but not all hope is lost. Recent indications show some new crop values around the $6.50/bu range delivered into Eastern SK and Manitoba. Stronger bids may be attainable if delivery is pushed into early or late 2023, in some cases August ’23. Spot bids seem to have taken the biggest hit as finding bidders proves to be quite the task. That said, one or two have showed some interest in purchasing a few bushels for August ’22, so we suggest making sales sooner rather than later. As a reminder, a handful of buyers will NOT take pre-harvest glyphosate sprayed oats; something to keep in mind as we inch closer to harvest.
Canary prices have tapered off a bit as the spot price pulls back from the 50 cent/lb range that it sat at for so long. Now, values have settled closer to the mid 40’s range for the time being. Stocks are very tight, and acres are not widely planted, so the weather market will play a factor of canary this year. Canaryseed is not like mustard with inelastic demand, so if prices get too high, end users will find a replacement, which means there is a cap to what values canary can hit. Recent rains to some of the driest areas where much of the canary is grown has helped this crop out some, but there is a long way to go before canary production is out of the woods. New crop prices remain bidding up to 43 cents picked up on farm with act of God for those with interest to take some marketing risk off the table.
Wheat values have slipped under $13/bu delivered in the milling market now for a #1 CWRS as the futures market bloodbath last week did not leave wheat prices unscathed. Prices may bounce back a bit, but the highs are gone for now, and time will tell when we see those values again. No real big news to add to the market this week as the USDA report is more about corn and soybeans, and the Seeded Acreage report in Canada is unlikely to stir the wheat markets too much. The weather markets may play a bit of a factor, so if you have product still to sell, be prepared to move when the market does. Spot feed prices on feed wheat have obviously come down as the milling market got creamed. Current bids are showing $10/bu as the starting number in most areas, but buyers are not particularly aggressive at this juncture.
In this shorter week leading to Canada Day, mustard remains relatively unchanged. Again, mustard markets are still remarkably strong despite the big commodity pullback last week. The weather remains fairly favorable for mustard in key growing areas. If you have not yet booked new crop acres, maybe it is time? Generally, this year’s crop is miles ahead of last year and remains that way heading into July. The window to sell at strong spot prices is closing rapidly now. Spot prices are subject to quick changes as buyers get their July needs met, meaning these prices can change daily. Old crop yellow mustard is still indicated in the $1.50/lb range, brown sits somewhere around $2.00/lb, and oriental likely still trades at $0.90-$1.00/lb, all FOB farm and moved before harvest. New crop mustard remains very strong with bids on yellow and brown still indicated around $0.95- 1.00/lb, with oriental only slightly behind around the $0.90/lb mark. These bids still include a full act of God and are quoted as FOB the farm. Price targets continue to be our best marketing tool when it comes to mustard. It is important to call your merchant to discuss using this system to secure the highest values in this market.
Lentil markets continue to slip as crop conditions improve and the growing season gets closer to harvest. Early reports are suggesting that this year’s red lentil crop could double last year’s, and if correct, pairing up current carryout numbers could pose a state of softness for the near future. This late news has put most buyers in a wait and see or hand to mouth buying position at this time. Large and small green lentils have felt the market swing slightly less than reds, but they have not gone unscathed. Buyers are still looking for small amounts of each, but the prices are specific to location, quality, and buyer. The pricing on old and new crop green lentils have converged in some cases, but there are a few stragglers left looking to buy spot product at a slight premium. The risk with carrying 2021/22 lentils into 2023 is that if this year’s quality (splits/ colour etc.) far exceeds last years, buyers may opt to only take 2022 harvested product.
Chickpea markets remain similar to last week with prices ranging in the 45 to 48 cent range on old or new crop. Not to sound like a broken record, but as we’re sure you’ve read throughout the report, improved moisture conditions across the prairies has eased concerns over the coming crop. Another aspect that’s in anticipation is the actual seeded acres between the U.S.A. and Canada. The wait is almost over as the USDA’s seeded area report and Canadian estimates will be released in only a few short days. We are unsure how these reports will have an effect on the market unless early estimates were completely misreported, but it is always nice to get an idea on final numbers. At these price levels paired with current market conditions on most other commodities, it feels like buyers are looking for any reason to lower prices. So, if estimates remain similar or show a slight increase, we could see more loss in pricing.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.