The prairie provinces are in desperate need of some rain, which may be providing some underlying support for the lentil market. According to the CGC there has been 506,000 tonnes of lentils moved this year to date, compared to last year when only 255,000 tonnes were shipped. The five-year average is 486,000 tonnes. More aggressive bids have popped up the last few weeks and buyers are looking to secure product, particularly medium and large green lentils. Large green lentils have been selling around 21 to 22c/lb FOB on a #2 quality, while medium varieties trade at 19 to 20c/lb (13-14 cents USD). Small red lentils continue to show support at 18.5c/lb delivered. Although bids are much more attractive than only a few months ago, dry conditions have some growers bullish. New crop red bids hover around 17-17.5 c/lb picked up with an AOG. New crop large green lentils have traded at 22/20c/lb on a #1/#2 quality. Analysts and producers both feel there is an upside to prices on both red and green lentils and if mother nature doesn’t provide us with much needed precipitation, they may be right. Only time will tell.
A good majority of the oats in the province have been seeded and moisture issues are prevalent. As of right now, oat demand is still strong for June – July movement. On milling quality, we have bids up at $4.05/bu delivered in MB, with picked up bids up around $3.50/bu. Bids are stronger in the South East of Saskatchewan due to freight advantages. Feed oats are trading at $2.75/bu FOB with $3.00/bu FOB having a good possibility of trading on offer. Targets are being looked at by buyers if you have supply in the bin that you are looking to move before harvest. For new crop, bids are around $3.30/bu delivered for off the combine movement and $3.50/bu for movement into 2020.
Wheat values continue to see a slight upturn this week as hot and dry weather continues. Milling quality values creeping up showing delivered elevator 13.5% pro at $7-$7.05/bu. Durum is almost par at $7/bu for old and new crop. June-July feed values have also taken a turn for the better as cattle farmers continue to hold off selling their stock and the demand for feed supply increases. Traded feed values range from $7-$7.25/bu delivered facility in Canada ($6.00-$6.30/bu FOB) and USD $5/bu FOB farm for some areas of the USA. New crop has not seen such fortune yet with prices holding steady at $5/bu FOB the farm. It feels like these markets will continue to escalate if the better part of SK doesn’t see rain but would expect a sharp change if we do.
Mustard markets continue down the unchanged path for another week. Producer concerns over the lack of moisture haven’t yet translated into buyer concern. Spot yellow mustard remains at a stable 34-35 cents/lb FOB farm basis #1 quality. Brown mustard holds firm with bids ranging from 28-30 cents and the latter definitely attainable in most cases. Oriental continues to lag behind grower expectations at 25 cents picked up for Forge/ Vulcan variety, while Cutlass carries a 2-cent discount. New crop bids are unchanged, with indications on full crop year (Sep’19-Jul’20) as follows: yellow 35cents/lb, brown 29cents/lb, oriental (Forge/Vulcan) 26cents/lb, oriental (cutlass) 25cents/lb. Some grower targets have proven to catch a quicker delivery period at above mentioned prices. New crop contracts contain full act of God and are picked up on farm.
Canaryseed markets are unchanged again this week. Demand from local buyers remains steady, but we haven’t seen any major push to purchase. This comes as somewhat of a surprise as we experience drought conditions throughout the majority of the canary seeded area. We may see demand increase if dryness continues and there is a scare of smaller production this fall. On the other side of the equation is carry out. Stocks never seem to be as low as reported, so this may be the reason we aren’t seeing a spike in value at this time. Should prices take a jump, it will be interesting to see what kind of volume comes out of the unreported bins. Prices this week are around 23c/lb FOB farm, but an offer may trade at 23.5 cents. New crop bids are also still floating around 21c/lb FOB farm, with an act of God.
Canola futures were traded almost $3/tonne less today, finishing at $450.20/MT for July. The prospect for much needed rain later this week has weighed somewhat on the futures. Western Canada planting is near completion and the lack of moisture has hindered germination and growth as we hear of some areas re-seeding. If the expected rain later this week disappoints, then we could potentially see the canola futures have an uptrend. The market is still on pause for now. The Canada-China dispute along with unsold old crop, still has pressure on the canola market. The support to Canadian canola from May was mostly spillover business in to the US markets. However, if the US soybean markets trend higher, it will be difficult to continue to break into that canola market.
The flax market remains strong this week with many buyers bellying up to the bar to get in to the action. Firm targets as high as $15/bu picked up in the yard have triggered on #1 brown this past week for those lucky enough to have held through the winter and spring. Many thought the issues with China on canola would bleed into the flax market as well, but thus far flax has skirted these pitfalls. One would surmise that the primary reason for this is simply due to low stocks. New crop prices have not run up like the current crop values at this juncture and are maintaining the $12 to $12.25/bu range FOB farm with AOG that they have been floating around for a while. Oddly, at a discount to the current crop brown flax price, yellow flax is trading at $14/bu this week as a picked up in the yard deal for those still holding. New crop opportunities are at similar levels including an act of God.
Yellow peas are stable for another week as prices remain in the $6.50-$6.80 picked up on farm range. Green peas are a little quieter, with buyers not interested in chasing bin bottoms. Maple peas are in much of the same boat for old crop product. We did, however, have a buyer ask about new crop maples over the past week, especially the mosaic variety. The buyer is willing to look at grower offers at this time. The strength in yellows is due to the fact there is still some left in the bin, and everyone is looking for something to process. Weather will be the next factor to drive these prices so will wait to see if the rain comes.
Soybean futures ran out of steam today after achieving recent highs on Tuesday. The market is grappling with the impact of corn acres either switching to soybeans or tending to prevent plant. China trade rumors still swirl about the market, but ultimately have as much substance as any previous rumor. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50 – $8.00/bu delivered. Canadian dry bean planting is largely wrapped up and market prices converted to CAD dollars remain supportive.
Feed barley continues to be one of few standouts when it comes to grain pricing this year. Old crop prices are currently being supported by low on-farm stocks, dry weather, and U.S. corn planting struggles. Bids in Saskatchewan have been anywhere between $5.00-$5.30/bu picked up on farm for a June/July movement. Bids are stronger the further west you are located. We do expect to see a decrease in price as we get closer to August and the new crop becomes available. Currently, new crop bids are between $3.75-$4.00/bu picked up on farm depending on your location and preference of movement. On the malt side of things, firm bids for both old and new crop have been scarce, but buyers have been willing to look at firm offers, so if you have a number in mind give us a call.
Kabuli chickpea prices are still trending flat this past week. Again, with the Election in India complete, it’s up in the air if anything changes regarding imports and tariffs. So, with nobody holding out much hope for a quick change on that front, we look at supply. It is looking like crops around the world are smaller by fairly tiny margins, but the chickpea market is quiet due to the carryover from last year. Supplies will be ample worldwide again even though total acreage has dipped here in Canada. The wildcard in all this, is rain. It is looking dry in many areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta right now. It is yet to be seen how this plays out as it’s still early in June. We have seen prices in the 23 to 25c /lb range for average of sizes, based on a #2 quality. New crop sits around that 23c mark with an act of God. Call the office with offers…as it may be time to look at options for new crop.
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