The pea market has begun to soften as old and new crop prices start to converge. This week we had a couple of buyers scrap their old crop yellow pea bids for new crop pricing. We do still have a few buyers left at $16 – 17/bu picked up, so if you have yellows left in your bin, now is the time to move them. Green peas remain at $14/bu picked up with a few $14.50/bu targets hitting last week. Even with the expected decrease in pea plantings this year, buyers don’t seem overly worried about available supply. The only thing that will change this tune is if we see weather conditions deteriorate quickly. New crop pricing for yellow and green peas remains at $13.50 – 14/bu picked up with the act of God. Maple peas are still priced at $16/bu for old and $14-14.50/bu for new. Looking overseas, India is also seeing their pea and desi chickpea pricing move lower, which keeps them from opening up any pea imports.
Barley markets continue to host good values this week. Old crop feed barley is still triggering in various areas throughout the prairies at $9.00/bu FOB farm for a July/ August delivery window. We suspect supply on farm is starting to dwindle and rightfully so, given the value over recent months. Malt trades remain hand to mouth. Your best bet to secure a bid is giving your favourite broker a call, with specs on hand, so we can find some options for you. Much the same rings true for any new crop malt values. New crop feed barley is triggering around that $9.00/bu FOB farm pricing, but given the recent sporadic rains, this price may start to slowly drop off. With the east side of the prairies being pushed into a later seeding year, we suspect we’ll have some surprise feed barley acres pop up that were not initially anticipated. Should this be the case, don’t be surprised to see any new crop feed values react to the change and come down in price. Current $9.00/bu FOB farm bids are historically high and locking in a certain percentage of what you expect to grow is a power play move!
The moisture conditions have improved in some flax growing areas with some analysts expecting a supply increase of 29% over last year. Kazakhstan has filled voids from Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, and China isn’t feeling a pinch from lack of Canadian supplies as they are still sourcing from overseas. The spot market on flax varies, and really is a hand to mouth market as buyers are stretching their inventory until new crop is available. For those with flax in the bins, it’s possible to still capture up to $36-$37.00/bu picked up in summer months. New crop prices linger around $31.00/bu, picked up with act of God. With Canadian flax prices still at all time highs, there hasn’t been much interest from the European market, rather they have adapted to source from other supplies. There are still many unknowns in the global market, so we expect prices to stay firm for now.
The Canadian and US chickpea markets maintain level bids, and there are rumors that Russian supply is hitting markets through the Dubai port. Speculation would have those valued less than the North American market in order to move them, but no firm numbers are being reported. Seeding is wrapping up, and there are a couple points heard around the coffee shop: 1) Chickpeas were seeded deeper than usual to hit moisture and plants are now about an inch tall. 2) Grasshoppers in the US are eating through immature acres and destroying the possibility of production. There is still a question mark around exactly how many acres hit the ground given some extremely wet areas, and what production will look like given some extremely dry areas. Prices have not responded and maintain value around $0.50/lb or better for another week out.
Canaryseed markets have been a little sideways this past week. Spot prices are still showing bids around 50 cents delivered to plant range, but trades are more often occurring at 50 cents picked up on farm; so, we have some wiggle room if you’re a seller. It feels like we have been cleaning out the corners of old canaryseed stocks for quite some time, but there just seems to be more and more coming to the market as we trudge along. Like a magician pulling a handkerchief out of his pocket, you presume it will end, but it just keeps coming. Recent rainfall has analysts predicting some bounce back in canaryseed production from last year, but we have yet to see how many acres actually ended up in the ground. It does not feel like producers were wild about seeding more canary with so many other good options and a pretty poor yield last year (though what wasn’t poor?). Tight stocks and low acres will likely keep prices supported.
The lentil market price has slid a little over the past week. As crop conditions improve across the prairies, and old crop sales wrap up for the year, spot prices will continue to converge with new crop. Red lentils only have a couple cent spread between old and new now, while large and small greens are a bit more enticing, still showing an 8-9 cent spread. Which show the most price risk? Reds are ranked as number one due to a large supply in Australia, more carryover stocks form Canada and India, cheaper substitute crops, and potential of an average crop in Canada. Small greens rank number two due to good crop conditions in most of the small green areas, smaller market, and price point. Large greens may have the least amount of risk as a lot of the growing area is still dry, varying grade factors, and smaller than normal carry over. A good U.S. medium green lentil crop could have an effect on the large green market as they are usually cheaper and an easy substitute for large greens. With some of the highest new crop pricing available that we’ve seen in many years, this may be a good time to make a hedge as it’s suspected no buyer really wants to be long in a market that has more loss potential than profit.
Canola markets are slowly trying to regain some strength this week after a hard week of losses. The week of May 30th July futures saw a loss of 6.65%, recovery this week has the July futures at a 0.39% gain. The week of May 30th had an open of $1187.60/MT, a high of $1194.50/MT and a low of $1102.00/MT. This week started out at $1115.10/MT, with a high of $1143.40 and low of $1105.40/MT. This week seems to hold a bit more stability generally. Most canola buyers have their basis incentives ending by mid July. Old crop this week is still just above the 26-dollar mark delivered plant and new crop pricing starting mid July is just shy of $24.00 a bushel. If you’re still sitting on some old crop, time is likely running out to lock in these higher prices and getting product moved before harvest.
Globally the wheat market continues to make headlines with Russia now facing speculation of selling Ukrainian wheat along with controlling the vast majority of port flow. Factor in adverse weather in the US and India, creating headaches as crop potential continues to diminish in those regions. The problems don’t end there as stocks are extremely low, some of the lowest levels the world has seen. China’s winter wheat crop is over half completed and reports are that it’s looking good. How much of China’s wheat actually hits the market is yet to be seen. All of the topsy-turvy news continues to prop up wheat pricing. Looking locally, the wheat market inched up this morning with buyer bids climbing a couple pennies to sit around $15.25/bu delivered in on a 13.5% pro, roughly on par with a week ago. Feed continues to be sought after by buyers with active bids hovering around $13/bu picked up on the farm.
Mustard seems to be under a little pressure on all fronts, but especially on spot yellow. Some rains have fallen recently in strong mustard growing areas, which is good news for growers. Will this lead to softer new crop pricing? Spot levels have bids down around the $1.60/lb range on yellow, $1.90/lb for brown and $0.98/lb on oriental, all FOB farm for June/July pickup. New crop values on all mustards are still solid even though demand has slipped a bit. All varieties, yellow, brown, and oriental, are sitting at $0.90-$0.95/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God including drought. Talk to your merchant on this, as a firm offer might be the way to go on new crop to secure the best value. After recent rains, should growers be taking advantage of the new crop prices while they remain available?
Oats seem to be stuck in a trading range that continues this week. Again, the talk is about reports of higher acres being seeded this year, but there is some concern over actual planted acres due to weather conditions. It’s too soon to tell what those numbers are today as the weather played a big factor in some areas. Old crop values for #2 CW are around $7.50-$8/bu FOB farm for June-July and new crop #2 CW at $6.50-$7.00/bu FOB farm for Sept-Oct with incremental movement up by $0.25/bu as you sell into 2023. Feed oats are still valued around $6.50-$7/bu FOB farm depending on down grading factors such as weight.
The soybean market gains momentum on tight South American supplies and ongoing Chinese demand, further fueled by fund purchases, and global veg oil market concerns. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.00/bu FOB farm. Dry bean bids continue to be well supported. Plenty of chatter on social media regarding delayed dry bean planting on both sides of the border. The Australian faba crop, the primary Canadian export competitor, is forecast to decline from last year’s bumper crop. Australian faba production is still forecasted to be higher than their 10-year average. New crop faba bids are showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.
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