There were a couple of positive changes in pea values late last week, with both green and yellow peas making small moves. Yellows crept back to $10/bu FOB in Central and North Central Sask., while green peas saw a short-lived uptick to $10/bu FOB in Southeast Sask. Today, yellow pea bids remain at a similar range in those areas but posted bids on green peas have taken a step back to their comfort levels of $9.00-$9.50/bu FOB. Many growers are actively targeting $10/bu on farm for their greens now, but buyers don’t seem to be interested in those levels today. New crop has not seen any changes with yellow peas at $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB, greens at $9.00/bu FOB and maples indicated at $9 – $9.50/bu FOB, all including an act of God. As of late May, the Saskatchewan pea crop was rated at 67% good or excellent which is below last year’s rating of 84% according to recent reports. However, there have been recent rains passing through the Prairie provinces and it’s still too early to make the call on how this crop will turn out.
Barley markets remain strong this week. Old crop feed values are sitting anywhere from $6.50 – $7.00/bu FOB farm, while new crop is currently indicated at $5.00 – $5.50/bu FOB farm on a non-act of God contract. Reports of water falling from the sky and talks of more in the coming days, should offer a bit of relief for the 2021 crop ahead. Barley can be a bin buster crop, so save yourself some grief searching for storage come harvest and lock up earlier movement into the feed market. At risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect to see much of what is not grown under contract this year to have a delayed delivery window. As new crop feed contracts fill, expect this to play a role in pricing at harvest. That $6.50 to $7.00/bu at the bin now sure does look nice, but given the number of seeded acres, on top of what is already booked, buyers may not have to pay a premium and could very well work with what they have. Don’t miss the boat and leave yourself stranded on the island, rather, lock in a small percentage of expected production at historically high feed values and buy the boat!
No changes to report in the oat market since last week. Buyer bids remain tough to come by on old crop milling oats, with less than a handful of players in the game. Both milling and feed oat values hover in the low to mid $3/bu range picked up on the farm pending spec. Those looking to sell feed oats will require some decent weight as exceptionally light product is not of not much interest. If you’re looking for a market high point, early June typically tends to be the time and we are quickly withdrawing from that window. So, if you’re still sitting with product in the bin and are looking for more value, you may be forced to carry over until demand picks back up. New crop milling bids for the fall sit at $4.25/bu delivered into Southern MB., while late 2022 shipment is indicated at $4.50/bu delivered into Eastern SK. Give your merchant a call for firm pricing opportunities in your area.
Flax prices hold up and remain strong for another week. Old crop is still capturing $23.00/bu picked up, meaning it’s a good time to empty out the bins and make room for new crop. Production contract prices are up a touch this week, now quoted at $18-$18.50/bu FOB with an act of God, depending on area and movement timeframe. Analysts expect the 2021 yield on flax to be close to the 5-year average and based on those numbers, new crop supply with be similar to last year’s production. However, as we know, there is a smaller carry-over which is why we are seeing flax hold its value. The biggest unknown will be how much production the Black Sea region can supply and if it is enough to ease some of the perceived high values.
With precipitation in the forecast and the recent heat doing its work on the crops, chickpea markets remain relatively unchanged. Demand chatter is unaffected and reduced acres still leave a bullish feel despite the stock of supply in the bin. It’s no secret that North America is one of the only exporters with an oversupply available. If monsoons don’t produce in India, restrictions continue to lift and demand increases, it will be North America that buyers look to for supply. Another game changer to keep an eye on is the possibility of too much moisture and the potential threat of disease. Chickpea markets see some demand for July-Aug. shipping at $0.37/lb FOB farm and new crop contracts can still be signed at $0.34-$0.35/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Sample and feed markets range from $0.18-$0.22/lb and buyers are always looking for this lower quality product.
The milling wheat market has softened up a bit this week. Bids for #1, 13.5% protein now sit around $8.65 to $8.70/bu delivered to plant for July/Aug. movement. There remains a small discount for 12.5% protein milling wheat, but feed values are likely to surpass those bids in many cases, so we suggest growers look to those markets to capture higher returns. The durum market has seen some life this week in Southeast Sask., trading between $9.00 to $9.50/bu FOB farm for late Summer and/or early Fall. Values taper off as you move North and West, with most bids closer to $8.50/bu FOB outside of the extreme Southeast. As touched on earlier, feed wheat markets remain very attractive and can even be a great option for those with milling quality. Growers in ideal freight areas can see bids as high as $8.50/bu FOB farm for July shipment, while those outside the “wheelhouse” likely won’t see values under $7.75/bu FOB farm. The closer you are to feedlot alley, the better the price usually is, but there are exceptions. Call today for a firm bid in your yard.
Large green lentil markets have lost some steam this morning with most buyers pulling values back a cent or two. Although not all, one buyer has even gone so far as to step out of the purchasing game until values settle out. Could this be a sign of more to come? We’ve seen some drastic swings in bids, with some buyers as high as $0.39/lb delivered last Friday, dropping to $0.35/lb Monday morning and now no bid today. That said, there are still a few players left in the game at $0.36-$0.37/lb FOB farm and now may be the time to sign up what’s left in the bin. As of now, we are unsure what is causing the price drop but it’s most likely a combination of some timely rains, shipping concerns out of Vancouver and the thought of new crop getting closer to hitting the bin. As mentioned last week, speculation is going to play a major part in determining values for the next few weeks, so be prepared for a bumpy ride. Current crop red lentils are in a similar situation as firm birds become tougher to track down, with the target system seeming to work best to get product sold. Spot reds trade on firm target in the $0.33-$0.34/lb range. New crop red lentil contracts are still available at $0.32/lb FOB farm with an act of God, while DDC’s (NO act of God) carry a premium, possibly up to $0.35/lb delivered.
Canola futures have been a mixed bag this past week, with July futures falling significantly and November futures taking a bump up. Today has been a negative day in the markets so far, with $22/MT and $16/MT losses for July and November, respectively. At time of writing, July futures trade at $844/MT compared to last week at the same time when they were $899/MT. November futures currently sit at $757/MT compared to $745/MT last week. Some of the weakness has come from moisture falling across areas of the Prairies that needed it. Add in the reluctance in a few other key markets and you can see plenty of reasons for the drop. Strong local basis levels continue to be posted and we’re seeing great new crop pricing opportunities that are definitely worth a good look.
Canaryseed remains flat for another week as buyers continuing to look for both old and new crop, unwilling to reach beyond their posted bids. As parts of the Prairies catch some (un)expected rain, with more forecasted this week, we are not sure how long these high prices will stick around, especially as other markets show weakness. Now may be a good time to review the following bids and make some sales. New crop continues to trade at $0.33/lb FOB farm with an act of God on the first 10bu/acre. Old crop trades at $0.35/lb FOB farm in certain areas for Summertime movement. These bids are indicated for the best freight areas, but growers who are outside of those areas can still capture strong bids at a slight discount.
Mustard prices seem to have leveled off this week with spot and new crop both trading steadily at strong values. We have seen a mix of trades taking place; from large lots to small bin clean outs and some last-minute new crop bookings as much needed rain hits. Yellow mustard continues at $0.50/lb FOB farm for both old and new crop with an act of God. Oriental bids have been strong at $0.35/lb on Forge and Vulcan varieties for both old and new crop, with Cutlass about 2 cents behind. New crop and old crop brown bids are showing $0.41/lb to possibly $0.42/lb in the yard on firm targets. If you are looking for a home on new crop or any sized bin clean out, give us a call. Buyers seem to be willing to move small loads to help you with space issues on farm.
Forecasted rain and profit-taking ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report have pushed soybean futures down. Crop condition scores and weather forecasts will continue to bounce the market around as analysts try to forecast its ultimate impact on grain stocks. Buyer interest remains somewhat subdued due to decent coverage; however, buyers will look at any reasonable offer. Faba market remains well supported, with old crop feed values trading at $8.50-$9.00/bu picked up. The Australian faba bean crop is anticipated to be historically large and will weigh on new crop export opportunities. Dry beans are experiencing solid demand South of the border, with exports being more restrained in Canada. This has buoyed US old crop values and to an extent Canadian values as well. New crop appears to have solid pricing prospects largely due to a reduction in seeded acres.
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