Chickpeas continue to be the low light of the agriculture news but buzz about insurance coverage may give it new light. Sask crop insurance has come out stating under $0.20/lb coverage for next year which has got growers rethinking their planned acres. With new crop values hovering around $0.23-$0.24/lb and no end in sight for these mid twenty levels we may see chickpea acres flipped to cereals. Current crop values are practically at par with new crop with feed values remaining at $0.10/lb. If acres do decrease in a major way it could mean a return to value against the chickpea but again, this is a long game… put on the binoculars when thinking chickpeas!
COVID -19 has run rampant over the markets these past few weeks with traders skeptical about taking a position on either side. Although it seems this issue is far from over, we see and feel some rebounding in certain markets. The protesting and rail blockades also seem to have calmed down a bit and we hope to see more railcars moving throughout the prairies. With all that has happened lately, feed wheat prices have remained roughly the same with bids hitting between $4.50 to $5.00/bu FOB farm for a March/April/May time frame. Keep in mind road bans will be starting soon, if they have not already, so be sure to mention these things to your broker. Prices on CWRS with 13.5% protein for Jun/July/August have been trading between $6.27/bu to $6.40/bu delivered. For 12.5 % protein, bids are in the $6/bu range for June/July movement. Milling durum values have been virtually untouched from last week, trading between $7.75 to $8.00/bu FOB the farm in southeast SK.
Export volumes on flax lag about 77,000 tonnes compared to last year. The lack of movement can be attributed to interruptions in exports to China due to the Coronavirus along with rail blockades. The Black Sea region has also continued to export at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. All of these factors combined with tight Canadian supplies have kept the bids from dropping. The prices on flax remain sideways this week with no big changes. Milling quality brown flax is $14.00/bu picked up for further out movement and #1 flax is trading at $12.50- $13.00/bu picked up. Golden flax sits at $16.00/bu FOB. The flax market will likely continue in this holding pattern of prices until we see 2020 harvest numbers. If you are looking for new crop opportunities along with seed, call us for details.
Canary seed continues to trade sideways for another week in a row. Pricing is holding firm in that 28-29c/lb delivered for that March – May movement. On the new crop side of things, the market remains soft. Sask Crop Insurance has come out and penciled this commodity for coverage as 25c/lb equal to our neighbors to the east and west of us. This coupled with current vaulted bids being the norm, expect these acres to increase. How much, remains to be determined as most growers are still trying to figure out the market in hopes of trying to pinpoint locking in some new crop acres.
The markets continue to struggle with export and movement though the pea market price hasn’t fluctuated much over the past weeks. Since the virus in China, there have been delays in port movement, but it has been reported now that some workers will be returning to their jobs. It will take some time to get everything flowing back to normal again, but it is a start. As per reports, we are expecting the 2020 pea acres in Russia and Ukraine to be down this year. If this is the case, Canada will face less competition into the European and Asian markets. Current prices haven’t made many changes this week, yellow peas are at $7 – 7.15/bu delivered, green peas at $11.00/bu delivered and maple pea at $8 – 8.50/bu FOB. Finding a maple pea bid is getting harder each week it seems, we have very few buyers with a current bid. New crop bids on yellows remain unchanged at $6.50/bu delivered while green peas saw an increase to $9.00/bu delivered (recommend taking advantage of this).
The feed barley market continues to hold on to solid prices. While movement has been getting pushed out towards May, $4/bu FOB farm has traded in certain areas. Most demand is heading west into Alberta, so prices are stronger on the west side of Saskatchewan. We have also seen some new crop values on feed barley show up so be sure to ask for a firm bid out of your area to ensure some fall cash flow. Bids are as high as $4/bu on the west side for Movement in January-February of 2021.
Canola has seen a slight rebound after a very harsh last week in the futures markets. Spot March futures have seen by far the biggest recovery with an increase of $8.10/MT on Wednesday alone. Much of these gains come from many of the G 7 countries making announcements to cut interest rates to help keep the economy afloat after the coronavirus has sent world financial markets spinning. Expectations are for this market to continue to be unstable until we can get back to some sort of “normal” global trade conditions
Lentils remain in a holding pattern with no change in value this week. Red lentils remain trading between 21 c/lb and 23 c/lb delivered. Large green lentils are trading around 21- 23 c/lb for a #2, while #1/X2 are trading between 26 and 27 c/lb. Small greens remain in the 19-20 c/lb range. New crop red lentils are still slow, but indications are coming in at 19 cents delivered. After a few targets were hit, we are unable to find the 20 cent FOB farm mark for now, although we still suggest targets. Markets seem to be quiet with all the uncertainty going on in the world. The lentil market seems to very reactive right now, so having your targets in place is the best way to take advantage of any upward price movement. If you’re planning on selling product, the calendar may become the enemy as most buyers are into April/May movement. Once the calendar hits June who knows if buyers will just wait for new crop to be harvested or will they need short term coverage if crop conditions are poor?
Nearby soybeans are up a bit as the US Fed cuts interest rates. Global financial stimulus efforts and rising vegetable oil prices helped May futures rise. The Argentine government will likely raise its recent tax on soybean exports by 3% to 33%. This will dissuade farmers from selling which in turn may direct Chinese purchases to Western ports. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.50/bu picked up on farm. The faba market remains solidly supported due to Australian production shortfalls. Export quality bids on #2 faba’s are ranging from $9.00-$9.50/bu picked up on farm. Feed faba bids are trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu picked up on farm. Dry beans have experienced difficult growing conditions followed by even a more difficult harvest throughout most growing regions. This has led to reduced production levels but increased pricing support. Lucrative new crop production contracts are available but with limited acres available. Call your Rayglen merchant for more info.
Mustard remains in the same trading range again this week and we expect this trend to continue for the short term. Export demand remains sluggish for Canadian mustard, but we can start watching for a slight bump in price once the seaway opens later in spring, though we may not see any reaction in this uncertain market. New crop bookings have been taking place at good values. Yellow mustard bids sit at 38 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. Brown mustard traded this week with old crop bids at 27 to 28 cents/lb FOB farm with new crop as high as 29 cents. This has been slowly softening over the last couple months. Oriental old crop sits at 23 c/lb for Cutlass and 25 c/lb for Forge or Vulcan FOB farm. New crop oriental has been strong at 26 c/lb for Cutlass and 28 cents for Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program at a premium. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.
Oats bids are much weaker in recent weeks as oat futures have tailed off recently with the big moves we have seen in many markets. Currently we still have some old crop bids delivered into Manitoba mills at high $3’s and even touching $4 into the summer months. Obviously, freight costs on a light product like oats make this number look not so attractive as you work it back into Central SK, but areas out East can still see the benefit. Slight interest in feed oats are still around at mid the $2/bu range but the feeders are not kicking down doors to secure product. Oats acres are projected to increase a bit this year at this time as big yields and prices from the past year are fresh in farmers’ minds.
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