Lentil markets make it through another week relatively unchanged. Old crop reds continue trading between $0.29-$0.30/lb with new crop at $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB, including AOG and $0.29-$0.30/lb on a deferred delivery contract, delivered plant. Large green lentils are still trading at $0.37/lb FOB or $0.38/lb delivered for April-July movement. New crop is in light trade with indications at $0.32/lb FOB farm, with an act of God. Small green lentils have traded this week at $0.34/lb FOB farm or slightly higher depending on freight for April through July movement. Based on our internal crop planner, red lentils at $0.30/lb delivered now pencil out as the #1 return on investment for new crop. Markets are sitting at historically high values for Fall delivery, and we think it might be time to consider taking some risk off the table. On the old crop side of the things, one needs to look at the risk versus the reward. Do you hold out for another cent or two and risk the return of prices to low-mid 20’s? If sales don’t pick up before the end of the crop year, some companies may even go to no bid and wait for new crop to become available at a cheaper price. This is something to consider as it wouldn’t be the first time that we’ve seen this. Large green lentils stock is showing there may be more available product than first thought. Again, something to keep in mind when thinking about what to do next. High thirties are likely not the worst value you’ve sold large greens for and at least at these levels you’re still profitable. The last thing to consider is the movement time frame. Currently, many companies are pushing delivery windows to July, which may suggest that at this point in time there is not a lot of demand from overseas.
Canola futures rebounded in a big way at the end of last week and have been mostly sideways this week until taking a big step downwards today. Both May and July futures are down roughly $19/MT on the day so far. May futures are currently at $777.20/MT, which is up from $756/MT last week. Meanwhile July futures are at $734/MT, up from $720/MT last week. A USDA report from yesterday left most markets unchanged, which should keep markets fairly bullish with tight ending stocks moving forward. However, a drop in Chinese grain and oilseed markets last night is causing the slide in prices that we are seeing today. November futures are also trading lower today but are still up from the same time last week at $617.30/MT. Strong futures combined with aggressive local basis levels are creating some very attractive new crop options that are worth looking at.
The mustard market continues strong this week with new and old crop mustards booking at a steady pace. Prices stayed relatively similar this week on all types and talk continues about just how many seeded acres will hit the ground this year. Brown mustard prices remain strong with spot and new crop at $0.38 to $0.39/lb. Yellow mustard prices remain similar with $0.42/lb trading for both spot and new crop. Oriental Forge or Vulcan remain strong after last week’s little pop. New crop will now trade at $0.34/lb while old crop is sitting at about $0.33/lb at the bin. Cutlass new crop has hit a high of $0.32/lb and spot is being bid around the $0.31/lb cent mark. We are getting to the end of our mustard seed program as trucks are being loaded and soon shipping to destinations. Please call us if you have any seed needs so we can get you booked last minute for delivery to your farm.
Canaryseed markets remain virtually unchanged this week with only a slight adjustment to old crop delivery windows. Bids now are being posted for April-June movement at $0.32/lb FOB farm. With spot bids still strong, we caution growers not to miss this opportunity hoping that something will pop up for quicker delivery. An offer at a lower value might get you some quicker movement, but even that is hard to determine at this moment. Reports suggest that the acres might be up from the year previous and signing a new crop contract at $0.28/lb FOB farm on 10bu/ acre with AOG is a highly suggested power play move. Taking a market value of only $0.04/lb less than what is in your bins now seems like a writing on the wall scenario. Take some of the risk off your table, hope for strong yields this year and play the market with anything over and above your contracted 10bpa. If values are higher come harvest, you can only average up, but if the market falls to its previously established comfort level (low to mid 20’s) at least you’ve got some product locked in. As always, reach out to a merchant today to discuss seed options.
Soybean futures are going through another round of profit taking after yesterday’s USDA report and their increased projection in Brazilian soybean production. It’s expected that this will be a short-term set back as global soybean consumption remains voracious with global ending forecast to be the slimmest in over a decade. Local soybean bids now hover around $16.00/bu picked up depending on location. The Faba bean market remains the same and stays largely focused on domestic feed demand. Australia is back online with faba production and is dominating Egyptian imports. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported coupled with robust export numbers. New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book your acres.
Who continues buying all the yellow peas and is currently the only one supporting our yellow pea market? China. However, we’re not the only player trying to get in on the action. Ukraine has been working through agreements to get their peas into China, which would be direct competition for Canadian peas. Current forecasts estimate that Ukraine will produce 700K tonnes which is up from last year as per reports and would infringe on Canadian sales if an agreement can be reached. Yellow pea pricing remains strong at $10.50 – $11.00/bu picked up as supplies have become very tight. New crop is bid at $9.00/bu picked up with an act of God. We recommend taking some risk off the table and signing up a few bushels/acre at this value. Green peas remain stagnant at $9.00 – $9.50/bu picked up with new crop also at $9.00/bu. Maple peas are $10.50/bu picked up on old and $9.00 – $9.50/bu on new crop. Yellow peas will remain strong IF China keeps buying at these levels which would keep supplies tight into 2021/2022. As for green peas, hopefully we see a positive price reaction as some acres are shifted into yellows for this marketing year.
The wheat market continues strong with product steadily trading from $7.00 to $7.75/bu FOB depending on location and freight costs. The milling CWRS market has been very secure as well with bids for 12.5% protein ranging between $7.95 to $8.00/bu delivered for April/May. For 13.5% protein product, prices range between $8.15 to $8.20/bu delivered for April/May. The new crop durum market has been quiet for a while now and trades seem to have tapered off. We suggest targeting $8.00-$8.50/bu range FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan and slightly under those values as you move North and West. Old crop durum has been trading around $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered to plant in many areas.
An unchanged barley market has feed quality still trading around $6.00/bu FOB farm while malt sales remain virtually nonexistent. As always, bids are freight dependant and will fluctuate a few cents, plus or minus, depending on where the barley is located. Active bids on malt seem to be at a standstill and we have reason to believe Maltsters are attempting to clean up what they already have on the books before contracting more. With planting right around the corner, don’t be surprised if we see buyers sit and wait to see what this year’s crop is going to bring before heavily booking. New crop feed barley is still sitting around that $5.00/bu picked up mark, pending location, but we suggest growers show offers to maximize that dollar value. Reports of some buyers dropping their pricing arise this week in anticipation of seeded acres being up. This is another commodity we highly suggest forward contracting to hedge the downside risk. Although it’s not necessary to go out and sign up 100% of your estimated production, having 25% locked up gives you a good cushion to work with at profitable values. Rolling the dice on only 75% takes some risk off your plate. Holding out and hoping for a higher number off the combine may pay off, but if everyone out there plays that game, then it becomes a supply vs. demand scenario. Maybe the risk of holding out will pay off, but there is also the chance that it won’t, and you will leave yourself with the “could’ve, should’ve, would’ve, had I known” attitude. Locking some in now guarantees some cash flow, bin space and a delivery window come harvest. Yes, there is a chance prices could go up, but with that being said there is also the chance they go down. We all know how the market works, our guess is, if markets go up it will be by cents, but if prices drop it will be by dollars.
Flax acres are expected to increase this year, both overseas and domestically. New crop can still be locked in at $16.50/bu picked up in the yard with an act of God and even though some shipping periods are getting pushed out, locking in at these values makes sense. With so much uncertainty in the market coupled with increased acres worldwide, we could potentially see a mean a drop in flax values. Old crop flax prices have been steady as of late in the $21-$23/bu range FOB farm. Those higher values are running into Summer month delivery with the lower end bids for movement in the next couple months. With such historically high prices and the market seeing uncharted territory, sitting on old crop flax is quite a gamble at this stage of the game. Taking risk of the table needs to be considered. We have already started to see some pullback from buyers as they don’t want to be caught with high priced contracts when this market dips. If you still are looking for flax seed, those supplies are also dwindling, so give us a call to check options.
When it comes to chickpeas it’s no secret that many producers are holding onto stocks from 2 and 3 years ago. When buyers are discussing opportunities about new sales, the discussion of current crop year stock has only come up. If it has been a while since you have checked your stocks, it might be a good time to get a handle on the quality of that older product in case selling opportunities present themselves. New crop Chickpeas are a bit of an outlier this week with a bid to purchase #2 large kabuli’s at $0.33/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept.-Dec. movement. This is not a widespread bid, but it is nice to see interest in the coming production. Old crop values are still around $0.30/lb FOB farm and more if willing to deliver in to select locations. There is still chatter of another World Food tender, but thus far there are no accepted bids to bump up the current crop value. Interest in damaged chickpeas has buyers looking to pay up to $0.25/lb FOB farm depending on the down grading factor.
Not much change to report on the oats front as pricing remains strong on old crop with $4.25/bu picked at the bin available for further out movement and location dependent. Just keep an eye out when you are looking to lock in old crop as road bans are or will be popping up in a good number of locations in short order. New crop pricing for the last quarter of the year seems to be hovering around that $4.00 -$4.15/bu delivered in range. Call your Rayglen merchant for pricing specifics for your location. Feed prices remain firm at $3.50/bu for dry heavy product.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.