The pea market was hit with heavy news this week. As expected, India reinstated its tariff on peas. However, the bigger surprise was China imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian peas. With India and China accounting for roughly three-quarters of our export market, this move will significantly impact Canadian pea markets. Adding potential US tariffs into the mix would further shrink export opportunities, in an already bleak-looking situation. As a result, many growers are already reconsidering pea acres and exploring other pulse options, while buyers back away from the purchasing table. For both current and new crop pricing, please reach out to your merchant. Many buyers are still re-evaluating their positions, making firm bids tough to track down. Grower offers may be the best strategy at this time.

Canola futures continue to take a beating as China escalates the tariff situation. Starting March 20, 2025, China will impose a 100% import tariff on Canadian-origin canola oil and meal. Markets have responded as expected, with steep declines across the board. As of writing, May futures sit at $571/MT, a $56/MT drop from last week. Local basis levels have also weakened, pushing canola prices even lower for farmers across the Prairies. More downside is possible in the near term as the market absorbs the latest developments. Given the limited volume of canola oil recently shipped to China, securing an agreement with the US to maintain oil exports south is now more critical than ever.

Barley markets remained largely unchanged over the past week. Old crop feed barley is still indicated at $5.00+/bu FOB farm in most areas, though demand has softened slightly. As we move closer to road ban season, the ability to pull primary loads may have an impact on FOB farm bids, so be sure to keep an eye on shipping restrictions. New crop interest remains, with some bids still available around $5.00/bu FOB farm on a DDC (no AOG). Locking in some tonnage at these levels ensures movement and price certainty. One positive takeaway amidst global tariff concerns is that most feed barley remains within Canada, meaning it should be insulated from the ongoing trade battles. On the malt side, discussions remain muted—although there is some interest, securing firm pricing is still proving difficult.

Chickpea markets continue to soften both in North America and overseas as supplies remain front-loaded and acreage is expected to increase. US chickpea acres are set to be the highest since 2019, adding further pressure. Global chickpea bids have been slightly lower and stagnant, with no strong rebound expected. Given the ongoing trade issues and the fact that a significant portion of Canadian chickpeas typically head to the US, no major turnaround is expected in the near future. Current bids remain difficult to secure and are changing daily. Last week, old crop chickpeas traded around $0.38-$0.39/lb FOB farm for high-percentage 9mm product, though there have been no confirmed trades so far this week. New crop bids have seen some interest at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an Act of God, though sizing requirements vary by buyer. With this market still largely untested for the week, reaching out to your merchant for firm values and freight spreads is recommended.

The USDA’s latest report left U.S. soybean ending stocks unchanged, contrary to market expectations of a slight decline. South American production was also held steady at 175 MMT, reinforcing the continued downward trend in soybean futures. Currently, domestic soybean prices range between $10.40 and $10.65 per bushel FOB farm. The dry bean market remains stable, with processors and buyers still working through their production contract inventory. Once this clears, processors may cautiously re-enter the market. Exports have been steady, though concerns over looming tariffs could impact buying activity. Dry bean bids are sitting at 45 to 55 cents per pound delivered, with smaller specialty classes fetching over 60 cents delivered. On the export front, faba bean demand remains weak, with bids at $9.00 per bushel FOB farm for top grade and $8.00 per bushel FOB for feed quality. However, a recent surge in Australian faba bean prices could create new opportunities for Canadian exports.

The past several days have been eventful, with tariffs being imposed across various commodities. However, canary seed has remained relatively unaffected by U.S. tariffs and completely unaffected by Chinese tariffs. Current bids are steady at $0.29-$0.30/lb picked up on the farm, depending on location. New crop bids have softened slightly from last week, now sitting at $0.28/lb with an Act of God clause. Interestingly, recent StatsCan estimates suggest a 25% year-over-year change in canary seed acreage, dropping from 291,000 to 232,000 acres for the 2025/26 growing season. If this projection holds, we may see prices firm up as the dust settles. Considering adding canary seed to your rotation? Contact Rayglen for certified itchless seed options.

This week brings two major reports for the wheat market: the StatsCan principal field crop area report and the USDA supply and demand report. StatsCan estimates spring wheat acreage is up 2% to over 19.4 million acres, while durum remains flat at 6.3 million acres. The USDA increased its 2024/25 ending wheat stocks by 25 million bushels. On the trade front, the U.S. implemented planned tariffs last week, prompting Canada to respond with its own measures on several grains, including wheat. However, the U.S. has now postponed these tariffs for the second time. Despite this, wheat futures still took a hit, with March contracts currently down, sitting at 534-0. Locally, wheat delivered to Lethbridge is at $8.30/bu for April through July, with new crop values at $7.75/bu delivered for August-October. In Saskatchewan, CPSR is trading at $7.65/bu delivered for April, with a slight premium for May. In southeast Saskatchewan, new crop durum sits at $9.25/bu FOB farm, while new crop feed wheat is at $6.50/bu FOB with early fall movement.

Oat prices remain largely unchanged this week as buyers and sellers remain at a standstill for both old and new crop. Current spot bids are hovering around $4.00/bu for movement into the summer months, with slightly stronger new crop bids for winter 2026. New crop oat contracts rarely include an Act of God clause, but some buyers offer alternative mechanisms, such as rollovers, to provide protection on quality and quantity. Speak with your merchant for details. March seeding intentions show little change for oats so far, aligning with the current lack of price movement. With continued trade war uncertainty and the sector’s reliance on U.S. markets, some producers may reconsider their oat acreage this season. While there’s still time to adjust seeding decisions, the coming weeks will be key in determining how the market evolves.

Flax prices remain stable despite volatility in other markets. Bids vary by location and movement, but current prices are sitting around $18.50-$19.50/bu FOB farm. New crop prices are in the $16.50-$17.00/bu range, picked up with an Act of God clause. The potential for U.S. tariffs remains a wildcard, though overall flax supplies remain tight. The 20% tariff on Russian flax into Europe could open up additional export opportunities, while Ukrainian flax exports to Europe have slowed as their supply tightens. Meanwhile, China continues sourcing mainly from Kazakhstan, but warehouses are still chipping away at inventories and have only used about 50% from where they were a year ago. With these factors at play, bids should remain supported, providing some positive news for growers. For those with yellow flax still in the bin, movement opportunities are available—call our office for details.

Lentil markets continue to weaken this week due to tariff pressures, increased farmer sales, and a general market slowdown. While India’s tariff is unlikely to halt trade entirely, it is expected to put downward pressure on pricing. New crop small and large green lentil prices are beginning to slide as buyers feel comfortable with their fall coverage. The market is also softening due to an increase in seeded acres. New crop small green lentil producer sales have slowed, with prices now below 40 cents per pound FOB farm with an Act of God clause. Large greens are following a similar trend. Old crop large green lentils are currently trading at 55 cents per pound delivered, while small greens are at 52 cents per pound delivered. The red lentil market has also slipped this week, with new crop now priced at 29 cents per pound FOB farm with an Act of God, while old crop is trading at 32-33 cents per pound FOB farm.

A major shake-up in mustard acreage was revealed this morning. Many had expected new crop acres to be in the 500,000 range, but we’ve been skeptical of this estimate for months. StatsCan’s latest planting intentions report came in at just 289,000 acres—a staggering roughly 50% drop from last year. This sharp decline will likely put a floor under prices and bodes well for future market strength. Old crop yellow mustard is trading around 45 cents per pound FOB farm, with new crop values expected to be similar or slightly higher for the September-to-March period, including an Act of God clause. Spot brown mustard continues to trade at 33 cents per pound FOB farm for nearby movement, rising to 35 cents for July. New crop brown mustard is slightly stronger at 35–36 cents per pound FOB farm, depending on movement. Oriental mustard is trading at similar values to brown. With this acreage report shaking up the market, now is the time to secure mustard seed. We have all certified varieties available, treated or untreated, with delivery to your yard. Give us a call to discuss options.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.