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Rayglen Market Comments – March 20, 2019

The latest projection for canaryseed acres is estimated at 250,000, down from the previous projection by roughly 25,000, but still up 18% from 2018. Traditionally, exports on canaryseed pick up in the second half of the year and there could be a light price increase in the not so distant future due to the opening of the Thunder Bay port. New crop bids have been fairly quiet, but we’ve had some luck at 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an act of God. Crop that is in the bin has been trading anywhere from 23.5 to 24 c/lb FOB the farm. Spring is just around the corner and many producers are gearing up for seeding. If you are looking for last minute seed purchases or grain selling, please call your Rayglen merchant.

Chickpeas continue a slight decline in value this week in both old and new crop. The grey cloud hanging over the market is Canadian seeding intentions and the potential for a record carry over, putting buyers in a pause position and growers unsure if they should seed or sell their current stocks. A large supply going into the 2019/20 crop as well as less than significant decline in acres could mean more of the same stuttering of the market for the unforeseeable future. No “shocking” change in overseas news as India Rabi harvest continues. Some buzz about drought damage in the yellow peas and chickpea crops, but this has not effected any change on their governments decision to remove import bans as of late. Current crop values are down at 25-26c/lb for nearby movement and New crop is 26c/lb with an AOG. The only value that remains stead is feed at 17-18c/lb on the farm.

Forecasts for this years growing season are being projected weekly. We are still expecting an increase in pea acres, with yellows up slightly, but the main increase coming from green peas and specialty peas. Peas continue to be moved through our export pipeline, as per stat reports, but new sales are quiet. China’s business has slowed due to seasonal lull and India is still expected to be out of the market as their Rabi harvest progresses. For pricing, yellow peas have decreased with $7.00 FOB not being attainable in most areas; bids are closer to $6.50/bu. Green peas are still trading at favorable values of $12-12.50/bu FOB, however soon we will see old crop and new bids merge. Current new crop bids are $6.50/bu on yellows and $8.50/bu FOB on green peas. Maple peas are trading at $15/bu FOB for old crop and new crop levels are at $10 – 10.50/bu FOB depending on variety. As we are expecting green and maple peas acres to be heavily increased, it may be beneficial to start considering pricing out new crop on a few bushels.

The feed wheat market has been showing signs of slowing down this week with bids dropping closer to $5.75/bu FOB farm. There are opportunities in western Saskatchewan and Alberta for higher bids, but movement is now being pushed out into May/June as primary weights have come off and road bans are popping up in many R.M.’s due to the resent warm weather. Milling quality HRS wheat saw a small bump in pricing into the Saskatoon area followed by a quick drop back down to $7/bu delivered into plant for a March/April movement. Aggressive farmer selling was the culprit. Milling quality durum has remained stagnant with bids in central Saskatchewan showing $6.75 delivered into plant in a few locations for a June/July movement.

The oat market seems to have quieted down a touch from earlier feed bids nearing $3/bu picked up on farm; we now dip to $2.50-$2.75/bu range on most recent indications, in most areas. Milling bids can still be caught at $3.00/bu picked up in the yard in many areas of the province for a #2 with no stain. Oats acres look to increase from last year as growers search for options from the normal staple crops. Also, areas to the north where high yields are attainable, a $3+/bu number is making sense. Firm targets on oats might catch some decent contract values these days, so sharpen your pencil and let us know the price you would be comfortable selling at.

Soybean futures are up a couple cents today as the market “weather watches” and keeps an ear tuned to on-going trade negotiations. US Spring planting is fast approaching, and the Midwest is seriously soggy, providing some short-term concern for the market. Trade talk directions continue to be constantly contradictory, thus becoming a mute market point. US lead negotiators have a trip planned to China to continue the talks and we await the outcome. Soybean local bids are trading around $10/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. New crop dry bean contracts are largely complete, as seed will be shipping to farm soon.

The canola market has seen modest gains since the lows that were posted earlier this month. Major losses were attributed to large canola supplies combined with the recent trade issues between China and Canadian canola. Currently the May futures are trading at $465/MT while July futures are at $472/MT.  This works back to a price of around $10.30/bu delivered plant for April delivery and $10.50/bu delivered plant for June delivery. Price will likely vary by region due to local basis levels and/or specials being offered by different companies. The outlook for canola looks sluggish, but there could be a few reasons for some pops in the market.  The US-China situation could result in some possible bullish news and the Canadian dollar could be something to watch that may help canola prices if we see sharp declines.

Feed barley markets are a little shaky this week as multiple buyers pull bids back as much as 0.25c/bu and it is rumored there is more softening to come. That being said, we still have a select few posting unchanged bids, so now may be the time to lock in your product. A crutch for those buyers is feed wheat, which holds at strong values, keeping their barley bids propped up – for now anyways. Buyers are also covering off nearby and long-term needs (May-Jul), knowing new crop will be pulled off in shortly after those shipping periods. There is a bit of room left for quicker movement, but make sure you know if you are able to haul primary or secondary weights, as that makes a difference in the price. Best bids still hover between $4.70-5.10/bu FOB farm depending on freight cost. New crop bids are sitting around $3.75-4.15/bu FOB farm, with an act of God, pending freight costs and movement period.

We don’t know what to say anymore on the lentil markets, everything is quiet. The strongest market right now is for lower quality lentils destined for the pet food market. Any producers holding 2016 crop, this is a perfect opportunity to get rid of them. For the higher quality lentils, it is going to be tough slugging until likely summer where we may experience worries of a drought, or quality issues. India will not be a player until after their election as all political decisions get put on hold in fear of swaying the election. For green lentils to improve we need to a reduce supply, but that is hard to do when no one is interested in purchasing; we are at a stale mate. Reds just wait on the Indian market to open and this should at least get buyers interested in purchasing. Prices likely won’t see a huge increase, but hopefully it will get product moving again.

Flax prices are holding stable again this week. Farmer deliveries remain light according to Canadian Grain Commission. Milling quality brown flax is $13.35/bu picked up in the yard while #1 quality is $13.25/bu delivered in. New crop opportunities are hit and miss at $12.50/bu picked up with an act of God. Both old and new crop yellow flax remain around $13.00/bu FOB. Market conditions are likely to remain quiet despite tighter Canadian supplies. Global prices have to be taken into consideration along with the dominate shipments from the Black Sea region into Europe and China. Larger volumes of flax have started to move directly to China from Russia. Shipments into Turkey and Belgium have even faded compared to a year ago. Fresh export sales are what is needed to see some strength in this market, but will be limited by 2019 acres in the Black Sea region.

Prices remain sideways, as even more new crop mustard is booked this week. Again, the recent turbulence in the canola market might be a reason to think about mustard as an option as this has been going on for a couple of weeks now. It is very important to call in if you are seeding yellow mustard this spring and discuss options for an offer. New crop FOB farm bids with full year shipping are 36c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 27c/lb for oriental, again, variety specific on the oriental. December movement is available on yellow now at 35c/lb which gives a much better shipping option. Current crop bids are 35c/lb for yellow, 30c/lb for brown and 25c/lb for oriental. In some cases, yellow can be moved fairly quickly. There is a chance we could see spot brown mustard pull back next week, as 30 seems to be getting worn out and buyers become reluctant; don’t be surprised to see 29 shortly. Oriental bids on cutlass sit at a 2-cent discount to Forge or Vulcan types. We have supplies of treated or un-treated certified mustard seed available, delivered to your yard, so please call your merchant ASAP as shipment will take place soon.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.