Chickpea markets do not want to get off of the roller coaster this week with trades taking place in waves and bid spreads seen up to $0.05/lb depending on farm location and day. This is a product of hand to mouth purchasing and with stocks still relatively strong, it will continue. The US is the strongest purchasing supporter today with Pakistan the next most traded destination. There is speculation that next year’s acres will increase 35% from last year bringing it to 250k acres, but with the lack of moisture and numerous profitable alternatives, this number is more of a guess today. Old crop values are freight sensitive with bids ranging from $0.45-$0.49/lb FOB farm for April-June movement. New crop bids are in a similar range with $0.44-$0.46/lb FOB farm including an AOG trading in various locations. Sample and feed chickpeas are valued around $0.30/lb FOB farm with buyers always interested.
Canaryseed markets remain stagnant for another week as growers maintain unwillingness to move inventory at lower values compared to only a few months ago. That being said, buyers are not applying pressure to purchase and are happy to “sit and wait.” Old crop bids are shown in the $0.44/lb FOB farm range for April-May movement with the odd opportunity seen slightly higher. New crop bids are not far behind at $0.36/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Buyers again are not pushing to put acres on the books for new crop, which could indicate a level of comfort on the speculative acres going in. With the lack of historical seasonal trade happening, there is a hope that with spring thaw and the opening of Thunder Bay, it could trigger some renewed bulk shipment purchasing.
Reports estimate seeded acreage for peas will come in below the 5-year average at around 3.9 million acres. Initially, we can expect to see a decline in green pea acres this year as yellow peas continue to hold a premium. It’s expected that our domestic processing will increase this year, so one hopes we return to a year of average to above average yields to recover some supply. As of now, low supply means continued anticipation of strong pricing in the yellow market, while potentially seeing green peas firm up if acreage drops as much as expected. Current bids on yellows range between $17 – 17.50/bu, while green peas are indicated around $14-14.50/bu, both picked up on farm and based on a #2 quality. Maple peas are unchanged this week at $16.50 – 17.50/bu, delivered depending on location and variety. New crop yellow peas remain at $13 – 13.50/bu FOB, with green peas priced at $12/bu picked up, both including an act of God.
Mustard continues to be priced incredibly high this week. Old crop yellow is bid around $1.80/lb; brown mustard stays strong around $2.00-2.10/lb; and oriental mustard trades up to $1.15/lb pending variety. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We have also seen firm offers hit at slightly higher values, something to keep in mind if you are looking to move your product. With supplies dwindling, spot bids remain firm and continue to push new crop prices higher. New crop yellow is bid at $0.90/lb, brown up to $0.85/lb and oriental quoted around $0.80/lb, all FOB farm with an act of God. We are forecasting an increase in mustard acres this year, with brown mustard seeing the highest percent increase in Sask & Alberta. Yellow mustard acres will also increase, not only domestically, but with The United States showing large planting intentions as well.
The barley world remains much the same as it has in previous weeks. Old crop values continue to trade around $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB farm, dependent on area and timeline of delivery. Fortunately, the CP rail strike has come and gone, being resolved much faster than most anticipated. Although this is a good thing, the expected upswing in price for old crop feed values is likely halted as buyers are still going to be able to bring in US corn stocks without much of a hiccup. Despite the loss of a projected upswing, $8.50/bu, or higher, old crop barley is still a great market to sell into. New crop feed barley is still attractive as well, with growers likely able to hit that $7.00/bu + FOB farm mark. This is a great price to get something on the books for some early movement to clear up bin space and start cashflow. Keep in mind new crop feed contracts do not carry an act of God, so there is some inherent risk, but we suggest signing a small percentage of expected production. Malt barley remains unchanged as well this week, with a lack of firm bids being thrown around. This means we still highly suggest calling in with your specs and a sales target to see what we can get for you. The same can be said for new crop malt values.
Wheat markets continue their teeter-totter like trend, which on some days feels more like a rollercoaster ride given the large swings seen day to day. Old crop #1 red spring is seeing values range anywhere from $12.50 up to the odd $13.00/bu delivered for a 13.5 protein or higher. Feed wheat, on the other hand, has found a bit of life this week and is likely to trigger anywhere from $12.00 – $12.75/bu FOB farm pending location, making this a better option for high quality wheat in some cases. Growers who are still sitting on feed wheat, in particular, are urged to explore these opportunities as this is a great price to finalize or start making sales. Old crop milling durum remains around that $16.50/bu delivered price for a #2 or better CWAD. If you’re looking for values above this price, we highly suggest calling in with product specs so we can show potential bidders. Onto the new crop side of things, milling durum prices range from $13.25 up to $13.75/bu ranging from a 3 CWAD up to a 1 CWAD. Although these prices do not come with an act of God, some buyers are still expressing the potential for a rollover option into 2023 should you not make the contract this year. New crop feed wheat has active bids at $10.50/bu which comes as a deferred delivery contract (no act of God), but locking in a small percentage of what you expect to produce this year is a great start.
Where are we going, “higher”? This seems to be the new mantra for canola as this market continues to run on both old and new crop. At the time of writing, we see spot canola sitting at $1144.70/MT on the July futures. Basis levels seem to be adjusting for this price increase a bit, so reach out to your merchant to see a firm bid at your farm. Talking in terms of striking range, old crop hovers around $26.50-27/bu delivered in. Flipping to new crop, futures sit at $974/mt with $22/bu very close to attainable and no, that is not a typo. Pricing continues to see support due to record highs in European rapeseed futures, strength in Malaysian palm oil and an upward trend in soy oil. With continued uncertainty in Ukraine and a tight global vegetable oil market, many eyes will pivot to new crop Canadian canola to help offset the numbers.
Lentils have stabilized in the last week with not much change in pricing. Reds remain at 39-39.5 cents/lb FOB farm, with new crop pegged at 34 cents FOB farm with an AOG. Old crop #2 large green lentils are indicated at 58-58.5 cents with a few offers triggering 60 cents FOB farm in Southern AB. New crop large green bids sit around 39-40 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2 or better with an AOG. A few buyers have been trying to purchase more small green lentils over the past week with bids indicated at 52 cents or a touch better FOB farm, with new crop now seeing bids at 40 cents with an AOG. Lentil trades have increased slightly in the past month as traders cover their last sales before new crop is available. This increase has led to the small rebound in pricing of late. There is still a lot of uncertainty on what the final seed acres will be for lentils. With dry conditions still seen in West Central and Southwest Saskatchewan, it suggests pulse acres should increase as lentils can handle a dry forecast. That said, when you look at crop insurance pricing and the availability of strong new crop values on many other commodities, it’s not irrational to think this too could negatively affect lentil acres. Rotation also plays a factor into who and where lentils can be grown due to residuals left in the soil. The answer to this question will be answered in the upcoming weeks.
Flax markets see strength in old and new crop pricing as uncertainty regarding supply from the Black Sea region continues. Old crop flax is trading as high as $37/bu FOB for summertime movement, while new crop is now priced up to $25-$26/bu FOB farm with AOG. As seeding approaches, here are a few things to watch: Kazakhstan crop conditions, further lock down of shipping through the Black Sea, less shipping out of Russia due to sanctions, and finally Canadian crop conditions. The 2022/23 world flax markets will be interested to watch, not only for total production, but where the production comes from. If Russia is taken out of the picture and the Black Sea shipping is not an option, then where does the supply come from?
Soybean futures have run up this week, pushing to $17.24/bu as we write on Wednesday morning. The last spot product we had firms bid on was in the mid $16’s, but that value should now be pushed north of $18/bu on farm with the extra movement in futures this week. If you have soybeans in the bin to sell, the common theme from buyers in this volatile market is, “give us an offer and let us work on it.” The edible oils market has been on a wild ride these past few weeks as weather issues around the Americas affect soybeans, war throws a wrench in the works in Europe, and tight supply in Canada remains a big factor. Switching gears, we have a market on new crop irrigated dry beans around 50c/lb delivered for a few different varieties, so if you are a grower with interest let us know. New crop #2 export faba bean prices remain around $10/bu, while growers can lock in #2 spot bids around $15/bu picked up on farm. Feed quality fabas remain priced around the $13/bu range this week.
The oat market remains quiet again this week with no big swings either way. Bids continue to range around that $8.50/bu range with pushed out movement. If you are looking to catch a bit more, give your merchant a call to put out a firm target. As well, we do have buyer interest in spot gluten free and organic oats. The process may take a bit, but the potential pricing points are well worth it. Looking at conventional new crop milling oats, buyer interest pegs in around $6.70/bu delivered for last quarter movement in 2022. With no AOG on oat crops, buyers have been willing to work with growers and provide rollover options should they have issues with quantity or quality.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.