Oats, oats, and more oats; that’s one way to describe the stockpile of carry-over we are seeing throughout the prairies for 2023 and at this point of time, likely pushing into 2024. To date, there has not been much change in old crop values with bids still in the $3.50/bu range, pushing into summertime movement. New crop programs remain elusive, but indications around $4.60/bu delivered into Manitoba have been floating around. As one can imagine, this hasn’t sparked much interest yet. If you you’re sitting on the fence wondering whether to store old crop oats or push them to market, at this point, it seems letting them go may be the better option as there is real uncertainty over how long this will drag out, and if we will see further value loss before the market shifts.
Mustard prices continue to fluctuate day to day and although there is buying interest, prices vary and are well under the $1.00/lb we were seeing a month ago. Best to call your Rayglen merchant for up-to-date FOB farm old crop bids on all types as quoting general values has become difficult. Markets are showing a spread between old and new crop, which will affect buying behaviour as we head into spring and move closer to planting and ultimately harvest. Mustard has seen a fair decline in new crop pricing as well, but the numbers still make sense to lock in some acres and protect yourself against further weakness. Even with softer new crop values, all three classes of mustard are showing returns with good gross margin rankings according to analysts. This year’s values have attracted acres for 2023 seeding and we suspect there will be a large increase in acres. Call our office for new crop pricing options.
Spot large Kabuli chickpea markets have been a little quieter as of late, with bids indicated around 50-51 cents/lb picked up on farm for #2 quality with decent sizing (i.e., max 10-20% 7mm). The ending stocks this year do not look overly burdensome, and market demand has been very hot and cold, so we would suggest waiting for another hot period and market accordingly. Acres look to increase on chickpeas this spring, up to 325,000, which, with a stronger yield, should keep pricing running about sideways for the most part. Any weather issues could keep stocks pretty tight going forward, but we always need to keep in mind that we are not the only players in the chickpea game – far from it. So, any possible local supply issues do not automatically correlate to stronger pricing. New crop opportunities are at strong levels with buyers quoting 45 cents/lb picked up on farm with act of God.
Pea markets have stabilized with not much change taking place over the past week. Green pea contracts are available at $13.50/bu FOB farm for #2 quality with the odd target trading closer to $14/bu. Higher bleached green pea bids are available at slightly discounted prices, so feel free to let us know what you have for quality, and we will find a home for your product. US green pea bids are still strong around $10.50/bu USD FOB farm and this has been buying waves of product for the last few weeks. Yellow pea bids range between $12.25-$12.50/bu FOB farm depending on your location for a #2 quality, again with the odd target trading higher. On the new crop side of pricing, green peas are indicated between $11.50-$12/bu FOB farm, while yellows are lagging behind at $10.50/bu FOB farm. Contracts for both are quoted for #2 grade and include a 10 bu/acre Act of God clause. The more niche maple pea market is trading at a premium to yellows with bids around $16.50-$17/bu FOB farm. We are encouraging offers on new crop maples in the $14/bu range FOB farm with an Act of God.
Lentil markets continue to show positive gains week over week, which is nice to see after a steady slide in previous months. Concerns of an acreage decrease in Canada may be helping prices, as well as a CDN $ that is struggling of late. Red lentil bids are up to 35-35.5 cents/lb delivered on #2 quality, while new crop bids with an AOG are quoted at 31.5 cents/lb delivered. Large green bids are showing the most improvement this week, with 53 cent/lb FOB farm offers triggering on #2 quality product in the bin. New crop bids are also rising to 46-48 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG. We encourage taking a good look at new crop large green values and getting some signed up. There is a good chance many acres could switch over from reds due to the wide price gap we’re seeing. Small green lentils are holding steady at 48 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop #1 quality. New crop #1 small greens are trading at 42 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG and have lower grade spreads built in. In the US, #1 US medium green lentils are trading as high as 35 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop and around 29-30 cents/lb FOB farm on #1 US quality new crop with an AOG.
The flax market is still relatively quiet on the pricing side of things, but $17.00/bu FOB did manage to buy some tonnes last week. Those sales, did however, put some pressure on buyers who are now quoting values as low as $16.50 delivered. One of our purchasers who exports to China provided Rayglen with some trade information over the last year. In 2022, China had demand for 600,000MT and estimated a need for 700,000MT in 2023. In 2022, Russia accounted for 70% of the flax imported into China, while Canada accounted for 4.9%. This put Canada into third place for countries exporting flax into China; keep in mind Canada was, at one time, number one. According to data for December 2022, Russia accounted for 74% of the imports and Canada fell to 1.1%, but it was still ranked as third. Russia has become a major player in the Chinese market for a couple reasons; 1. Limited markets to trade with, 2. a 300,000MT increase in production from the year before. These two reasons have Russia trading at a discount compared to Canadian pricing. Last week, Russia was trading flax into China at $535/MT US to $576/MT US depending on the shipping port. Canadian flax is priced at $655/MT US, which is only trading to high-end users.
Soybean values stay strong for another week. Talk about the Argentinian bean crop and adverse weather is helping keep values up. There have been reports their production went from an earlier estimated 41MMTS to 33MMT due to drought – that is down 25% from last year’s production. The Brazilian supply is expected to be a large crop, but it may not be enough to keep values stable. Bids remain unchanged from last week and are location dependent ranging from $16.75-$17.25/bu FOB farm. Faba beans have maintained tone for another week with #2 quality bids ranging of $13.00-$13.50/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.50-10.00/bu FOB farm. New crop values are still hard to put a pin in, so buyers are encouraging offers from the sell side.
Canaryseed markets have been fairly flat for the past few weeks, and although we’ve seen some sales into the spot market, overall trade has been fairly slow. Old crop values continue to be quoted around that $0.36-$0.38/lb FOB farm mark with some quicker shipment options still available. It is important to throw in your targets on spot canary at a level you’re comfortable with and see if we can get the trade done as demand still seems strong. New crop is trading in the $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm range with buyers doing anywhere from 10 – 15 bushels to the acre under AOG. We really like new crop canary as sale option here at Rayglen, and if you are growing it, you should really pencil these numbers in. If you need seed, contact us as we may have the right lot you are looking for.
According to the Canadian Grain Commission, out of country barley exports are moving ahead of last year’s pace. Despite January seeing the smallest monthly export total since fall 2022, Canada still exported 131,000MT of barley, with China being its main buyer at over 100,000MT. Watching today’s markets, corn imports from the US continue to supply many feedlots, and barley prices continue to look similar to previous weeks. Current feed barley bids range from $9.00/bu delivered into Alberta, and $7.40-7.80/bu FOB farm in Sask, with the higher value being found in the SE Sask area. New crop feed barley continues to trade around $6.50/bu FOB farm on a DDC (no AOG). Malt barley bids range from $8.10-8.40/bu delivered AB/SK/MB on old crop, with new crop malt bids between $7.30-7.90/bu delivered, dependent on delivery time and option between an AOG or DDC.
The wheat market is trying to climb out of the hole that it dug itself into these last couple days with bids hovering around $11.25/bu delivered in central Sask. With acres on the rise both here and south of the border, new crop bids are staying steady drawing ire from other crops, i.e. lentils. There are growing concerns on the US winter wheat crop, and it is reported that just over 50% of Kansas crop was in poor to very poor condition; conversely, just over 15% is in good to excellent condition. This does not bode well for the start so far. Sliding over to feed wheat, bids continue to hover around that $10.25/bu range picked up on the farm give or take a quarter depending on freight costs, making it a nice alternative for some lower grade milling wheat. Switching gears over to durum, buyers continue to range around $12.50 – $13/bu delivered in, with 3 tenders on the loom. New crop values are a little lackluster right now and trade has been light.
Canola has been on an overall down tread since Feb 22nd. That said, there have been market up days and coupled with attractive basis levels, producers have been able to sell targets at $19.00/bu delivered. Due to strong crush margins, domestic demand remains strong, allowing basis to absorb some overall softness in the futures. Canadian canola values continue to price in on the high end as it compares to other global veg oils. Significant Chinese demand is yet to surface which may weigh on carryout stocks. Futures have come off a bit over the past couple days with local bids now hovering in the $17.75-$18.50 picked up location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.