Strong global edible oil demand and prospects for a shrinking South American crop continue to prop up soybean prices. Local bids are location dependent and range from $16.00 -$16.50/bu FOB farm. Global dry bean crop production prospects are mixed. The Mexican pinto crop is reported to be larger than last year, whereas the South American crop now has some production concerns. Both old and new crop bean bids have recently received a small boost. There is healthy competition for acres from other crops as farmers finalize dry bean planting intentions. New crop dry bean prices are available and are positioned around 50¢/lb delivered. The 21/22 Aussie faba crop production number is firming up and is positioned at a 10 year high of 582k MT. New crop faba bids are showing up around $10.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm range and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.
We have not seen any major changes in pea pricing moving into the week of Mar 7th. Last week saw a bit of selling in the old crop green pea market as bids moved up to $14.50 – 15.00/bu FOB, which continues to be quoted this week. Yellow peas ticked up a little bit as well, with $17.00/bu FOB farm trading on some glyphosate free product. New crop remains steady on yellows, with bids ranging from $11.50 – $12.50/bu FOB with AOG. The latter of those prices is mainly quoted in southeast Saskatchewan. There has been some mention of potential new crop green pea business at $12.00/bu picked up with an act of God, so if you have interest there, we recommend trying out a firm offer. Moving overseas, India’s forecasted chickpea production is pegged as a 10% increase over last year, which will ultimately provide zero incentive for the government to reduce restrictions on Canadian peas.
The canary seed market has not had any price changes over the past week. Old crop is still bid at 45 cents delivered, with 44 cents picked up on farm working in most areas. We may see a slight increase in buyer interest come spring, but most seem content on keeping prices and demand at current levels. New crop remains historically strong at 35-36 cents picked up with an act of God. If we end up seeing a slight increase in canary seed acres this year and manage to avoid Mother Nature’s wrath, that should translate into enough supply to bump up exports back to average levels.
Barley markets take a step up the ladder this week, with renewed demand coming to the table. Old crop feed values move to levels that support selling interest and product has started to trickle in again. Depending on freight area and timeline of delivery, old crop values are floating around that $8.75 – $9.15/bu FOB farm range. Although buyers are looking for dry and heavy barley, everything is biddable, so call your merchant for details on off spec product. Old crop malt still remains to be somewhat quiet but that doesn’t mean they aren’t looking. Similar scenario: get your specs together, call your favourite merchant and let us see what kinds of values we can track down. Onto the new crop side of things, malt remains slow to trade, but indications around $8.50/bu have been seen. New crop feed barley values remain much the same as last week with some widespread numbers out there, but growers can expect anywhere from $6.75 – $7.25/bu FOB farm depending on area and delivery window. Although new crop feed comes as a DDC (no AOG) locking in 10% – 20% of your expected production should leave you with a good window to cover the sale as well as get some quicker movement and lock in cash flow.
Wheat markets have gone on quite a ride over the last couple weeks as the world’s biggest wheat exporter sees many of their other exports being slapped with sanctions and in some cases blocked. Wheat markets are feeling the heat as well with the possibility of exports being shutdown to many areas looming overhead. Not to gloss over the other country involved in this terrible situation, is another of the world’s largest exporters and their ability to produce. While they are fighting for their lives and country, this will obviously be impacted. So, it’s no real surprise this war creates a large situation of volatility due to many unknowns. Many bids on milling wheat popped up a little but didn’t go far and most seem to be back down at similar levels to the past few months. Bids are quoted a little over $12/bu delivered to facility today. Feed wheat prices remain at highly competitive levels to milling, with $12/bu picked up on farm tradable in many areas for summer shipment. Durum bids on #1, 13.5pX range from $16 to $17 depending on area and movement window.
Canola markets keep on climbing this week as conflict in Ukraine continues to be the center of the world’s attention. While experiencing a correction this morning, crude oil prices have exploded higher and contributed to strong increases in world vegetable oil markets. This in turn, is a big reason why we are seeing such high canola futures numbers. Those numbers include May futures at $1120/MT, up from $1080/MT at the same last week. July futures, which some physical buyers have started to base their bids off, are at $1087/MT. This has increased from last week as well when we were at $1044/MT. With extreme volatility expected while Russia stays in Ukraine, getting some canola sold into this rising market continues to be a good idea. For new crop, November futures are up to $921/MT and the magic number of $20/bu has been attainable.
While Flax exports from Russia are up compared to last year, the conflict happening overseas could pose trade disruptions, specifically into Turkey and the EU. Russian flax going into China is still well below Canadian values and those trade interruptions are unlikely. Canada and Kazakhstan have smaller supplies of flax, but if the EU turns to other countries, Kazakhstan will have enough product to offset what Russia is not able to export. We could see some short-term demand domestically as the trade flow adjusts. The unknown remains with the US and their supply needs as they were also pulling product from overseas earlier this year. For those with flax still in the bins, prices have crept up a bit this week, now sitting around $34.00/bu picked up with the possibility for slightly higher values well into summer months. New crop pricing has been holding steady at $25.00/bu picked up, act of God.
Stability is seen in chickpeas this week after a bit of a bump last week. Old crop #2 Kabuli’s were trading around $0.45/lb FOB farm, and it shook some of the stocks loose from inland. The bid is still there this week, but the depth is not clear. New crop finally felt some of those gains this week with bids getting as high as $0.44/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Again, some activity, but no one rushing to the table to sign on the dotted line. It feels like there has been a bit of restoration in the chickpea market surrounding global events. The theory is that delays from Russian stocks hitting export markets will keep supporting values as long as there is conflict and for some time after. There is also concern over seeding capabilities for both Russia and Ukraine, so combined, the market has all eyes overseas. There is always a demand for low quality chickpeas with values at $0.30/lb FOB farm or better depending on the down grading factors.
Sourcing good quality milling oats has been a bit of a battle this year and even more so on the organic side. That being said, there is buyer interest in conventional or gluten free oats with a considerable pop in pricing. To attain gluten free standards, specs are tight as there is very little tolerance allowable for wheat, barley, rye, and triticale in the sample. As well, the seeded acres need to be free from cereals the previous two years. If you are sitting on a “oat mine” that so far meet these parameters give your Rayglen agent a call to discuss further. Conventional oat pricing continues to hover around that $8.50-$9.00/bu range on a #2 milling quality, with pushed out movement nearer late spring/early summer depending on farm location. New crop values continue to hold steady around $6/bu give or take depending on movement and farm location.
Mustard continues to be a pretty interesting story. Uncertainly around the Black Sea region has of course added support to this market, with prices fairly similar to last week. New crop bookings have certainly increased again this week as pricing remains in record territory. We think planted acres will be up this year and as we approach seeding, we wait on Mother Nature to do her thing and patiently await supply numbers. New crop brown mustard now sits firmly in the 80 cent/lb range with yellow being bid as high as 85 cent/lb FOB farm today. Oriental remains unchanged, still bid around 75-80 cents/lb FOB farm. All these contracts have an Act of God on up to 10 bu/ac. Spot yellow is being quoted around the $1.85/lb FOB range, while brown has popped and now sees bids above the $2.00/lb range. These values are absolutely hard to believe, now around 100 dollars per bushel. Oriental is quoted at $1.00-$1.10/lb FOB farm depending on variety. Please call for information on all types of certified seed, treated or untreated, and delivered to your yard. We are getting very short on yellow seed supplies, so call as soon as possible if you have not booked. Supplies of brown and oriental remain available. Be sure to be in touch with your merchant during these precarious times as things can change quickly depending on worldwide developments.
There seems to be a little more demand this past week in green lentil markets generally. Large green lentils lead the way for pricing and buyer interest, with bids as high 56 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. One buyer reported to the Rayglen staff that Dubai is showing the most interest in purchasing at the moment. New crop bids have perked up as well trading at 40 cents/lb FOB farm with an AOG – great values to hedge your bets. The red lentil market is trying to get back to 40 FOB farm, but just can’t seem to break through the glass ceiling, currently sitting at 39 cents. New crop reds are trading consistently at 33 cents/lb FOB farm with AOG. Small greens have some interest as well with old crop at 50 cents FOB farm or better pending location. New crop SGL’s are bid at 34 cents FOB farm with an AOG, but in light trade. As all markets seem to have gained a little strength this week, growers are encouraged to try firm targets on product still in the bin if these values aren’t quite where you want to be.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.