For another week canaryseed markets fail to deliver the previous highs that producers are searching for. Although they are not reaching the top, bids are still relatively strong, sitting around 22.5 to 23 c/lb FOB farm. New crop bids remain in that 20-21c/lb range with an act of God, in very light trade. The seasonal high that we usually expect this time of year has produced no significant price bump. The recent reports peg seeded acres to be around 229,000, lower than what many experts have estimated. It is only an 8% increase from the 2018 crop year and if correct, may provide strength in price come the 19/20 marketing season.
Some in the trade expect to nearly double the reported 7.8% oat acres increase once the 2019/2020 crop is actually planted. Even with the Canadian crop acre increase, as well as other world-wide major oat producers increasing acres, supply is still close to record low numbers. With these lows accompanied by higher US corn futures, low carry in oat stock and support of the low value Canadian dollar look to see bullish prices similar to those of 2018-2019 growing season. Pricing this week for milling oats sits around that $3.40/bu delivered into select locations. Give us a call for site specific opportunities and FOB farm bids. Current feed oat pricing seems to be tightening up with bids harder to find this week. Spot pricing may find you a value around $2.30/bu FOB farm.
StatsCan confirmed our projections last week; pea acres will rise moderately in the 19/20 season. Assuming average yields and reduced export we can expect to have heavy supplies throughout the marketing year. Exports of yellow varieties, now and in the future, will rely heavily on China and their decision to accept Canadian product. For now, uncertainty keeps yellow pea bids low and with India still presenting tariffs, yellow pea bids have been seldom. Currently, we have pricing at $6.00-$6.35/bu FOB and new crop values at $6.00/bu FOB with AOG. Green and maple pea production contracts have seen bids slipping over the past few weeks, as most buyers have been filling their position. That being said, we still have opportunities to make sales at $8.00/bu FOB for greens and $9.00/bu FOB on maples with full act of God clauses. Locking in 10-15 bu/acre is a good play as these are the types of peas that will account for the major increase in acres. Getting your foot in the door and selling a small amount in the fall will ensure you’re not left holding all production until late in the year or potentially sitting on unmarketable product due to oversupply.
Soybean story remains similar to previous weeks in that futures are in a nosedive based on no new trade news and looming US planted acre increase. A soybean acre increase gains credence with each passing day as more US growers align on opinions of a late planting season. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75/bu picked up on farm. Canadian new crop faba acres will increase significantly predicated on lofty old crop bids. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7/bu FOB farm. North American dry bean trade remains pedestrian and predictable. Niche bean classes still finding good support in unique export markets.
Milling spring wheat prices remain flat this week despite some small recoveries on the Minneapolis futures. This comes after a significant drop last week, in part due to StatsCan’s expected acreage report showing a 3.8% increase in spring wheat. Current bids sit between $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered to plant in most areas. Despite news of a significant slash to acres, durum prices hold steady around $6.50-$6.75/bu delivered plant, mostly due to large on farm supplies and low global demand. Feed wheat demand has popped up again and prices are stronger at $5.50-$5.90/bu picked up on farm with best prices being on the west side of Saskatchewan and into Alberta. As we get closer to the next growing season, now is a good time to be cleaning up any feed wheat in your bins before we start sliding lower towards new crop bids.
March StatCan planting intentions released on Friday tell quite a different story for chickpeas than initial estimates. The expected reduction is 24.5% from last year which is not a sharp decline (160k acres in 2017, 442K acres in 2018 and 334k acres in 2018). While I am sure you are sick of hearing this same song over and over, chickpea markets are flat and intend to remain this way for the foreseeable. That being said, even with new crop bids hovering at $0.23/lb FOB farm, when compared to a crop with higher input costs or increased acreage intentions, chickpeas are still a front runner as a farm favourite. If contracting a couple bu/acre is in your plan, may be best to set a target offer and present it to the buy side rather than wait for a complete market swing. Be first to market and set your intention.
Flax prices are similar to last week with $13.50/bu delivered to plant on #1 quality still available. For those in the far SE $13.35/bu picked up in the yard for a good milling quality flax is attainable. Movement is pushed out until the late summer months. New crop flax is very hit and miss, especially after last weeks StatsCan report of flax acres increasing by 16.7%. we suspect this could even go higher with the uncertainty surrounding canola. Flax bids in Canada are in a vulnerable position and could dip as we get closer to 2019 new crop. Demand from China & the US is likely to soften in anticipation of the large acreage increase. For now, the tight Canadian supplies are keeping the prices supported. The price behaviour will hold as long as China keeps buying, which is the biggest uncertainty right now.
Barley remains unchanged this week, with bids strong and steady. Despite previous thoughts of weaker pricing come this time of year, buyers are now anticipating bids to hold until at least June, at which point, depending on weather, we could see the dip. This would be in response to new crop ready and coming off in August. As of right now many areas received some sort of moisture over the weekend so things are looking promising. New crop prices for range between $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm without an act of God depending on the area. Old crop prices hold strong at $4.40-4.75/bu also depending on the area. New crop malt prices are thin, but grower offers seem to be getting product booked – particularly on Metcalfe variety. We have a small amount of certified Metcalfe seed available, so call your merchant if you are interested.
It’s a rough day mid-week for canola as the market has fallen over $5/MT at time of writing. Weakness in the edible oil complex and presumably market reverberation from the government’s increase of the cash advance program seem to be main causes for the slip. Local bids this week range in the low to mid $9’s/bu delivered to facility for product still in the bin, which obviously does not bring any warm and fuzzy feelings. Reports are out that the feds plan not only to send delegations to China to try to sort out these alleged “pest” issues, but they will also explore opening canola sales to other countries. One would suggest exploring exports of canola oil and oil products rather than opening markets for raw canola to keep processing and processing money here, but that is just one man’s opinion. If/when market rallies present themselves, consider making additional sales as these issues don’t look to go away quickly.
There was not a lot of fallout in mustard markets after the Stats Canada seeding intentions report. Estimates at 416,000 acres for 2019 have bids relatively unchanged as buyers largely expected numbers along those lines. A lot of moisture also hit areas this week in many mustard growing regions. Not a lot of details yet on growers having to re-seed, as temperatures dipped very low in the nights following the spring blizzard. As mentioned mustard sees steady bids this week, with virtually no movement on price. Spot values are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety. New crop has been booking as well; yellow trades at 35 cents, brown at 28 cents and 25 cents is available on Cutlass type oriental. If you have Forge or Vulcan, new crop at 26 cents isn’t out of the question. Certified seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year but if you need some, call and we can try to work something out.
Red lentils have seen some trades take place between 18 cents FOB and 19¢ delivered to plant. The trade really has not given any indication for the move to the 19 cents, but none the less, that value has traded. Still not a lot of selling happening at these levels as most farmers are more concerned with getting #plant19 started. Talking to clients this week it seems like most producers are sticking to their red lentil seeding plans, but interesting to see how many large greens and small greens will be planted this year. A few clients have put new crop red lentils targets out at 18 cents with an act of God, but buyers aren’t showing much interest. The large green market is stagnant again this week with the highest No. 2 price being 20c delivered and the best new crop bid at 21c for a No.1 and 19c for a No. 2 with no act of God. Reduce those bids by 1c to obtain an AOG. This market will remain slow until we see the overseas market become more trade friendly.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.