It was another subdued week in the pea market. With supplies running low and little export activity remaining for Canadian old crop, bids continue to hold firm for any remaining inventory. Yellow peas are fetching $14/bu, while greens command $18–19/bu, and maple peas are priced as high as $28/bu, all FOB farm. New crop bids have held steady from last week, with yellow peas quoted at $10.50-11/bu, greens at $14/bu, and maple peas at $20-21/bu (variety-dependent), all picked up on farm with an act of God clause. The looming question persists regarding whether India will extend their zero-import tariff beyond June 30th, potentially bolstering further support for new crop prices. Signs appear favorable as prices for peas and desi chickpeas in India remain robust, but nothing definitive has been decided yet necessitating patience and observation.

Feed wheat shows subdued activity this week, following a period of strength in previous weeks. While there isn’t a significant shift in the market, the limited availability of lower quality wheat directs buyer attention elsewhere, while producers remain hesitant to sell milling wheat into the feed market. The feed complex, overall, hasn’t displayed the robustness of previous years, with lighter export activity for lower quality products and stable local feed markets. Feed prices hover around $7 to $7.50/bu for red types, with a slight discount seen on feed white wheat. Meanwhile, milling values show #1 CWRS 13.5px at nearly $9.35/bu delivered, while CWSWS bids sit closer to $8/bu. Attention now turns to weather forecasts and their impact on global wheat production as various countries enter growing seasons and we wait to see if dryness in regions like Russia and the US might offer domestic pricing support. Durum values range from $10 to $10.50/bu delivered for summertime shipment and despite a little more interest in product from the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, it doesn’t currently command a bid premium.

Soybean futures complex shows a mixed trend today, with meal down, oil up, and soybean futures net up. The easing of the Argentinian dock workers’ strike exerts downward pressure on soybean meal prices. Despite a recent decline in EIA soy oil usage, biofuel demand remains strong. Additionally, robust global edible oil demand supports soy oil prices. US planting rain delays, although welcomed, may exert some pressure on Chicago futures. This period typically carries bearish tones as South America concludes its harvest while U.S. plantings increase. Soybean bids range from $13.75 to $14.25/bu FOB farm, depending on location. New crop Canadian faba acres are expected to increase, with new crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties around $10 FOB farm. Dry bean exports to Mexico are boosting the market, especially for pinto and black beans. Black beans lead in fetching attractive bids, while pintos are slower to respond. New crop great northern opportunities are available picked up on farm with AOG.

Canaryseed markets transition to May with minimal shifts in either old or new crop values. Today, spot bids persist in the range of $0.42/lb FOB farm with a delivery window spanning May to June. On the new crop front, values remain stable at $0.35/lb FOB farm for fall/winter shipment, inclusive of an act of God clause. As noted in previous weeks, due to the strong spot market and relatively large gap between two production bids, we suspect an impending convergence, with the gap possibly tightening further as May progresses. With this in mind, it seems practical to divert old crop stocks into the market to free up bin space and garner spring cash flow into the farm. While buyers aren’t aggressively pursuing canaryseed, reasonable firm offers may pique some interest, possibly offering slightly stronger values.

Spring planting plans are largely set, with barley acres expected to decrease. These farm gate decisions are largely influenced by price indications and net return projections. Domestic feed use has declined, favoring readily available U.S. corn imports, something we’ve seen for a while now. Stagnant malt demand in recent years, coupled with decreased new crop acres, contributes to larger carryout supplies. Despite the expected lower new crop acres, the 23/24 carryout combined with 24/25 production is likely to result in burdensome inventory numbers. Malt prices have dropped to just below $6.00/bu delivered, with feed values ranging from $5.00 to $5.30/bu FOB farm for May/July shipping.

Flax prices remain unchanged compared to previous weeks, despite the potential for below-average 2024 Canadian production. Bids continue to hover around $17.00/bu picked up in the yard for the summer months, with new crop prices also hitting $17.00/bu, picked up, including an act of God clause. Analysts project North American flax production to fall to the range of 320,000 tonnes if average yields are achieved, down from 348,000 tonnes in 2023/24. However, despite the anticipated decrease in supply for the upcoming crop year, prices have not experienced a significant rally, suggesting continued competition from overseas markets. Most Canadian supplies have been directed to the US market, with Russia dominating the Chinese market. Purchase interest remains in the range of $20-$22/bu FOB for those with yellow flax in bins (variety dependent) and similar numbers are being quoted for those planning to put yellow flax in the ground this spring.

The lentil market is stable this week, with the highlight remaining to be the availability of new crop green lentil contracts, despite an increase in acres and tonnage already booked. New large green pricing remains profitable, with bids at 57-58 cents/lb FOB farm with AOG. A recent increase in medium green lentil bids was seen as well, with one purchaser moving to 38 cents/lb USD or 48 cents CAD, FOB farm, with an act of God clause. Finally, small green lentils remain active in the 49-50 cent/lb range with an AOG pending location. It’s uncertain whether these prices will hold throughout seeding; typically, as planting progresses and moisture conditions improve across the prairies, new crop values tend to soften. New crop red lentils remain unchanged at 33 cents/lb FOB farm, with an act of God (in light trade) and old crop shows some life at 36-37 cents FOB farm this week. Despite buyer willingness to purchase reds and generally quiet trade activity, there doesn’t seem to be any real panic in securing tonnage. Thus far, efforts to show targets above quoted values have been unsuccessful. The red market’s trajectory will hinge on India’s final harvest numbers, which are just wrapping up, as well as the condition of our own crop moving forward.

There’s a sense that the spot chickpea market may have found its bottom in North America. With several buyers stepping back and/or moving to “no bid” it’s speculated that growers have ceased selling, either holding until seeding is complete or just waiting for better returns. Pressure on North American markets is partly due to Mexico’s report of a significant increase in seeded acres, up 84% from last year, which has also impacted Mexican market values negatively. New crop acres are still attracting interest, with a slight uptick in bids, once again trading around $0.44-$0.45/lb FOB farm, including an AOG clause and a generous max 20% 7mm clause. However, it’s uncertain how long this activity will last, as similar to global markets, North American acres are expected to increase. Feed markets continue to trudge along, with demand weaker than before, potentially prompting consideration of alternative options for the pet food market.

The oat market remains flat and largely unchanged for another week. Bids remain scarce but maintain an indicated value of $4.50/bu delivered to select areas, with similar pricing and disinterest for new crop bookings. There’s a widespread belief in ample oat supply rolling into next year’s carry statistic. With seeding underway in many areas, growers are likely contemplating preparations for the upcoming harvest, with oats on the priority list for a sale. It’s unclear if end users will sustain current values in the foreseeable future, despite no changes in several months. If demand holds steady through seeding and summer, old crop bushels should become available to meet any demand. It’s advisable to put your product on offer to be first in line when buyers are ready to commit.

Mustard trade has been gradual over the past week, with some old crop loads changing hands and new crop acres being contracted. Yellow mustard remains in demand, with bids holding steady in the high 50 cent per lb range, albeit for smaller tonnages. If you’re considering forward contracting your yellow mustard, reach out to your Rayglen merchant to explore opportunities, including an Act of God clause. Brown mustard has also seen a slight increase in value, with bids now around 44 cents per pound, while oriental mustard maintains a similar range. New crop values for both varieties remain in the low 40 cent per pound range with AOG and a full crop year shipping period. It’s crucial to communicate with your merchant in these markets; setting firm targets may help capture top-end bids or small pockets of demand. While mustard seed sales and deliveries are mostly complete, if you have any last-minute needs, contact us, as seed is available for pickup.

Canola futures have seen a reduction since the start of the week, though at the time of writing both July and November have taken back ~$10/MT. This puts old crop (July) and new crop (Nov) futures values at $627/MT and $643/MT respectively. Negative basis levels are still seen in the local cash market, parking spot bids near $13.40/bu delivered, while production contract values hover between $13.75-$14.25/bu delivered. The ride down has been turbulent, despite a promising start to the week. Stronger carry into the 2024 crop year, due to decent production numbers, is dampening bids. Also, Export setbacks, with a two-million-tonne decrease compared to last year’s pace according to the Canadian Grain Commission, are exacerbating supply concerns. Patience may be necessary to hold product into the new crop year to capitalize on further market strength. The question remains for most: How long can one hang on and for what price?

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.