Lentil markets remain virtually on par this week, with values tending to creep up a little until demand is filled, then dropping back down. For now, the swing on all varieties does not seem to be more than a cent/lb up or down either way. Spot large green lentils have been trading around that $0.40/lb FOB farm mark for June/July movement, while new crop is being bid at $0.37/lb with a full act of God. Old crop reds continue to trade at $0.35/lb FOB farm, with new crop trading at $0.32/lb FOB farm with a full act Of God. After many areas finally getting some much-needed rain, we suspect that new crop bookings will start to pile up at these strong values. Take advantage of some new crop pricing and earlier movement to get some cash flow back into the farm. Old crop selling seems to be halted which can be attributed to one of two things: producers just wanting to get seed in the ground before making final decisions or growers are sitting on the last few bushels and waiting it out for a higher price. There is nothing written in stone out there that you need to sell everything, but with these values it’s hard to not to make incremental sales. Yes, the price may go higher and there doesn’t seem to be much downside, but as we have seen time and time again, values could drop off overnight. Trying to catch the market on the way down is tricky as it usually doesn’t drop slowly, but rather plummets.
Trying to put a number on canola these days is rather tricky and let’s be honest everyone and their dog knows what the canola market is doing. We are seeing all-time highs in canola right now, but the question remains whether the market continues the course or eventually finds a place and levels off or possibly drops. To put a firm number on canola is tough as values seem to change daily and/or hourly. It has backed off a little bit this week, but prices are still attractive. With rain received over the weekend and the general outlook of more to come, we suspect this has taken a little bit of heat off the buying side. The real question right now is: if you are sitting with canola in the bins what are you waiting for? Don’t be the guy saying you could have had a record price but waited too long! You don’t necessarily need to sell it all in one shot, but with the availability of $20.00/bu or better (yes you read that right $20.00/bu or more) the comment has to be made!
Seeding is progressing well, with reports stating that 23% of the pea acres have been planted as of early May. Lack of moisture has farmers staying in the fields; however, we are going to need some timely rains this year as to not adversely affect yield. Pricing has not changed much over the past weeks as China’s buying interest seems to be fading for the time being. Yellow peas have seen a couple $10.00/bu FOB trades (location specific) with $9.50/bu FOB available in more areas. New crop yellows remain at $8.50 – 9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Green peas had a couple more trades over the week with $9.50/bu FOB hitting on firm target. New crop remains quiet at $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. Maple peas have seen no change or action, with old crop at $9.75 – $10.00/bu FOB and new crop at $9.50/bu FOB.
Canaryseed markets remains strong this week and although some areas of the province were lucky enough to receive rain over the weekend, other parts weren’t as lucky. That said, it’s still early and tough to write a crop off mid May as things have more than enough time to turn around. Old crop has slowed down a bit, as buyers aren’t as aggressively buying, but are still looking for product around $0.35c/lb FOB farm for May- June movement. You can always post an offer for further out Summertime movement and see if that gets picked up. New crop is still very attractive at $0.33c/lb FOB farm with act of God. New crop contracts are on the first 10bu/acre, so you are taking some risk of the table but not booking your whole crop.
Chickpea markets maintain trading tone as we move through seeding season. Values have stayed the same from last week at $0.33/lb on old crop and $0.31/lb Sept.-Dec. with an AOG on new crop. Pakistan is still the main buyer of Canadian supply, but we have seen Italy pop up as an importer as well. As we slowly start to eat though stocks and assuming acres remain monotone, the expectation is for an upward shift in the coming months. Mexico’ values have been creeping up which could indicate reports of lower yields are factual for their production. If rumored lower production in competing countries is true, it will support higher values for Canadian stock despite the large carry. General tone is bullish, but the buying side has not yet decided it is time to get aggressive. Consider targets when marketing as a lot of value can be left on the table in a bull market.
Not a lot of change in the wheat market from week to week. Prices remain attractive with 13.5% protein #1 Milling wheat still bid over $9.00/bu delivered to plant for May/June movement this week. Milling wheat that meets the same #1 spec but is only 12.5% protein carries a minimal discount with the same movement. The durum market is very strong as well and has been trading between $9.00 to $9.50/bu FOB over the past week or so for Summer movement in Southeast SK. Feed wheat continues to be a bull this week and has been trading around $8.00 to $8.50/bu FOB depending on location. The closer you get to the Southwest part of Sask, the better the price usually is. Wheat prices in general continue to be profitable and should continue to be for the foreseeable future.
Oats continue to trade sideways again this week as milling prices hold steady around that $3.70/bu range picked up on the farm. Bids are still a bit spotty to come by as most buyers are covered through Fall on old crop. New crop milling prices are also much of the same with mid $3’s for Fall movement and high $3’s -$4 plus for 2022 onwards. Active feed bids have been fairly quiet, but if you have something firm let us know as the odd trade has triggered around that $3.40/bu picked up on the farm. Overall, oat stock reports are down from last year according to StatsCan, as it’s been a strong marketing year with domestic use increasing over 5%, while exports shot up to just over 18%, sitting at 2.1 MMT. Let’s hope for another strong marketing year for oats as planting has started in almost all regions.
Bean exports are running ahead of average so far for the year although analysts are expecting carryover into the 2021/22 crop year. That said, some demand is still expected to come from Mexico which may chew through some of the supply. China increased their exports to 11,500 tonnes so far this year compared to 3,000 tonnes a year ago, which is also something to note. Seeded acreage in key growing areas across Canada and the US are expected to be down for this growing season and we suspect strong markets across most commodities is playing a roll. Black beans have seen the strongest gains as far as prices go, but pinto and black bean values have seen some strength in the last couple of weeks, mostly due to the stronger demand from Mexico. Faba bean prices remain fairly strong driven by moisture concerns in Western Canada and the US.
Flax prices remain linear for another week with a small pool of buyers still looking to buy at the highs of $23.00/bu picked up. New crop pricing also remains strong with prices hovering around $17.00/bu delivered with an act of God. Flax prices in Europe have come down, likely due to decent growing conditions in the Black Sea region. The new crop prices are expected to remain sideways as the carryover on old crop flax will be minimal. As seeding is underway, weather will play a factor on expected yields, which may not build up that cushion of flax inventory going into the 2021/22 crop year. The big factor will be if the Black Sea production will have enough supply to fill the gaps.
Sitting with some barley? You may want to double check those bins as feed continues to trade strong with pricing around $6.40 – $6.75/bu picked up on the farm for June/July movement. With historically high pricing and tight stocks we’re in for a bit of a wild ride. New crop values are sitting at $5.00 – $5.50/bu picked up on the farm in Sask. Like always, farm location plays a factor. So, look for stronger bids on both old and new crop in Alberta as you get closer to feedlot ally. Curious about malt prices? Well, maltsters seem content to lurk along the sidelines and play by themselves as they don’t want any part of these prices.
Mustard has traded sideways all week with bids virtually unchanged. A lot of talk about dryness in mustard growing areas continues, but we did see a half to one inch of moisture on the weekend in the extreme Southwest corner of Sask. and Southeast Alberta. This should alleviate short term concerns in those areas and offer a decent start now. The old argument remains on how many acres were planted this year and that picture will become clearer very soon. Mustard bids are seeing yellow at $0.45/lb for new crop with a new bid appearing on spot product at $0.46/lb for July to August pickup. Oriental old crop sits at $0.35/lb for Forge and Vulcan and $0.32 for Cutlass, while new crop Forge sits at $0.35 and Cutlass at $0.33/lb for Sept to July movement. We haven’t seen Oriental bids at these levels in a long time, so it may be a good idea to get some product locked up. Brown is bid at $0.40-$0.41/lb on both old and new crop. Shorter pickup times are available with discounts for December and March time windows.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.